Member Info for FunInvestor

smalltrader please do not make things up
The short position is there for all to see (of the over 0.5% shorters). The shorts have been here long before covid and I have NEVER disputed the company being shorted.

What you seem to be confusing this with is when I have said the shorts have not been materially changing in recent weeks/even months when you have been failing to make it my fault you have made out it is big changes in shorts which there is nothing to evidence that.

I guess this deflection means you have NOTHING to offer by way of explanation for companies shorting this company.

Enjoy rest of your day and we shall see how much Cinemark and Cineworld ends up today and more so on 12th.

Thanks for vote of confidence in me smalltrader, maybe I should hire you as my pr agent.

Await response regards shorters taking a position if nothing to do with debt levels.

Insider I like balance, maybe if the parody over optimistic parody accounts were less I would counter less!?
As I should maybe not care what you or others say here overly optimistically, maybe you should t care what I say I'm your view overly pessimistic.

If the board here only allows one form of commentary does it not become a dangerous echo chamber?
When shown to be wrong I have held my hands up and said so.
Can the same be said for many others?

Did I say I was stressed?
Was it not yourself recently announced it strange I didn't seem concerned/stressed by low/falling share price?

Make your mind up please smallT :-)

I would be interested in your thoughts as to why Cineworld is a heavily shorted stock if as you suggest there is nothing of note in debt levels.
I would be genuinely interested to hear your conclusions on why they have chosen Cineworld over so many other companies.

Look forward to yours (and possibly others reasoned replies)

Popeye always welcome a rise.
Indeed let's see how market interprets these results and then ours in 6 days :-)

Popeye yesterday regained what was lost previous day similar to Cineworld.
Their SP is down on most reasonable periods of time too.
Week, month....

PW
I am not Cineworld and it's board of directors.
They are the ones requiring a return to 90% of 2019 levels for their business plan to work.
It is Cineworld Debt that requires them to recover pretty quickly to such levels.
That's nothing to do with me.
I see no value in pretending things are different.
It would be FANTASTIC if there was no or far lower debt and or higher numbers of movie releases and attendance right now.
I can assure you I would far prefer that, but it isn't the case.
Cineworld forecast/expected/needed 60% of 2019 in early re opening months growing to 90% in 3rd/4th quarter of this year.
None of that is me.

They recorded a loss and EPS come in below forecasts.
While revenues come in ahead of forecasts it is still a very long way of 2019 levels.
Cineworld hasn't based things on a particularly long recovery to 90% of 2019 levels.

Yes this one is 30th April.

Just 2 weeks back they disclosed their holding which was relating to 31st May!!

Please refrain from calling myself and others idiots because we mention the fact of Cineworld having sizeable debt in relation to the size of the business.
I didn't call you an idiot when you stated Cineworld if operating at 61% of pre covid levels should be at 61% share price valuation.

https://screenrant.com/dc-movies-after-suicide-squad-2021-release-dates/

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/john-fithian-nato-scarlet-johansson-lawsuit-delta-netflix-1235035673/

Popeye
Why do you consider it absurd?
We have all seen the full market box office numbers.
They are a fraction of 2019 levels.
Now with that in mind if Cinemark record better than expected results i.e. higher attendance levels then it must be considered a possibility that it is at the expense of one or more of its competitors.

If there is one pie and we know the overall size of it then for one person to have more pie someone else suffers.

Not sure why you consider that absurd.

Now if the whole market has actually done bigger numbers than what is being reported on the likes of box office mojo then that IS a different matter.

Insider, it may have an effect but I do not expect their results alone to have a material effect on our SP.
It could be argued if their results are better than expected it is to the detriment of us (e.g. they took greater market share leaving less for us).
I struggle to see how we can have achieved more than 60% of 2019 levels (this being the base case Cineworld noted previously for re-opening) on average since opening to end 1st half year so by that assumption I find it difficult for what others in industry report or ours on 12th to be a serious positive on share price.

As I say other factors and a forward statement with substance behind it may well positively impact SP.

I will be pleasantly surprised if we do end tomorrow over 70 and then sustain it.
Think we closed today pretty much where we opened yesterday.
Been in this range for a little bit now and not sure anything (we know off) there to move us out of it prior to 12th.

Unless there is a few key and substantiated positives in the accounts e.g. the big potential court case resolved favourably, strong agreements for number of years with other studios, clear intent of much higher film releases and higher attendance levels in half 2 and onwards then we may well have a period yet without any significant uptick in SP.

First half results I can't see being a reason for shares to surge.

Hoping for some/any real news soon to drive us up up UP!

Remember the "scare" thread on The Green Knight film being pulled/delayed from release (in the UK)?
Well it's release went ahead in USA the weekend just passed and has pretty good reviews and decent box office, nothing compared to our FF, Marvel etc but adding $m's to industry box office and placing 4th for days released so far.

Short term and on bits of news this share will (over) react to UK news.
However it is business fundamentals that will ultimately decide share price longterm and this is a 75% USA based company.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4222779905/?ref_=bo_hm_rd

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1082239/cineworld-screens-and-sites-worldwide-by-brand/

Rick,
I don't remember the numbers, but some months back I did some sums on attendance levels required.

I would simply look at 2018 and 2019 financials.
See the box office figures and divide by number of screens in company. Then by the average ticket price which are all available from company reports.

I "think" I got to around 70 odds per screen every single day.
That's not per screening remember as most sites will use most or all screens more than once per day.

Recent years trends have seen week days with very very low attendance (single figures) also weekday evenings.

Friday/Saturday generally the big hitters then Sunday.
Onto if this numbers heavily weighted to full or near full screenings first night (week) of the likes of Marvel stuff.

Rick, no that's nearer the number of screens they have.

"Getting back" therefore below currently.
How many films are in the pipeline? The main ones we know, but we also know those alone are nowhere near enough.
Future potential performance is not recent past or current performance which we know are still considerably below required levels for this business.
Where the share price is is down to a number of factors as is usual the case with any share.

It is shorted due to factors such as: debt level, pandemic , recent attendance levels, concerns over studios direction and many other factors I am sure.

Yes in the UK many of us are evidencing progress, but until we are constantly at or very very near to 2019 levels this is open to difficult share price times.
Remember USA is what we need focus mostly on, not where a small percentage of business is.