Member Info for Fukurokuju79

IMO people will regret selling at this price in time but that's not a judgement as we are free to choose.
Thankfully my average is lower than this dropped price so that's fine.
The share will bounce a little later, I think, as clearly the news has lifted seller volumes and MMs need to calm those a little.
Then over the next week's/ quarter we will rise again on plans for Ditau, mobilisation and further info and plans on KSZ.
It's funny and shows how short term investors can be. It's fine if you trade (gamble) on the success of a single drill hole hoping a direct hit on a target, but actually if you look beyond we've actually found a couple of conductors and one even higher Siemens just next to where we drilled, that's of a significant size.
It's at these times you add, not sell imo. Drilling is proving and advancing the model and kav are identifying and closing in on a significant deposit or deposits at frankly a very early stage in exploration at the KSZ.
Atb

Proving not pricing
Have a good day all

I thought they wee either still drilling or validating and it's a bit of both
Anticipate and drop as people won't want to hold into q2 but very encouraging and we are getting closer and pricing their model.

Atb

7.6? What then your out? In for a short swing trade?

Personally I believe this deal (certainly most likely
but not necessarily with AA) will include CE and Muswema. Just from the words and sentences used by NvS yesterday.
The rest of my assumptions are in my previous post.
Anyway gla have a good weekend.

I said 4 weeks with a stretch of 8 as a cautious (won't stick my neck out too much vibe), but can see the case it could be anytime.
I defo agree the deal is done. I believe it could be announced as soon as the consent orders are given (which is a formality).
So I won't argue it can defo be done sooner. For belt and braces I built into my estimates some time for the survey to be returned ; but absolutely agree the major won't need those as a critical path item to the deal itself.
They will just want those to define and feed into decisioning on this year's drill.

I was tempering expectation (including my own lol). I think up to 4 weeks. Up to 8 with any unforseen delays.

In all reality the major & arcm will likely want to announce the deal sooner as if anything is on the critical path other than consent orders it will be getting the necessary approvals (shareholder, governmental etc) as determined necessary. They are certainly incentivised to announce sooner than later.

Either way it's close and not quarters, years, never.

Atb

Lol

Must have posted by mistake.

1st step - consent orders (should be quick as per call)
2nd step - get final report from the survey in couple weeks and share with major
3rd - finalise, announce deal
4th - gain approvals

I think we hear in next 4-8 weeks IMO.

Yes agreed
1st step - consent orders
2nd step - get final report from the

In addition to the below posti made following the call... Having listened to it again. Clearly CE is also part of the potential deal.

.....

So clearly lots covered but from a commercial transaction perspective I noticed a few things…

Firstly as we thought the arbitration was confirmed as have been executed to
a) avoid time wastage including potential appeals ;
b) lawyer costs (it was confirmed we are paying for our own respective costs as part of arbitration)
c) strategic decision to expedite the current advanced commercial transaction as the legal cases would have / were involving significant DD on the cases that are no longer needed.

While NvS etc wouldn't say what the deal will look like when asked specifically about it, I did hear a few things to feed into an opinion...

Few points I noted

- Another major mining group interested but don’t want to delay as other one is advanced – 3 majors interested (well 2 majors and one mid). ‘Enviable position’.
- ‘Very significant commercial transaction that will transform our fortunes’
- ..when asked about Muswema drilling to 500 metres….interesting reply, as NvS jumped in to ‘couch’ / caveat the answers by saying ‘when / if we are able to finalise the transaction that would be out of our hands…'
- Plans and priorities of our future potential ‘partner’……
- ‘the major who will take over the drilling’….
- Cash – good - 2 million dollar (excluding casa and ‘before any cash from a commercial transaction')
- Time constraints to a commercial transaction: Expressed strong desire to get going as while currently in wet season anyone needing to drill out will need time to mobilise.
- Nothing standing in way of deal now.

The above snippets suggests to me we can expect news in the very near future certainly if they want to get drilling this season and mobilise etc.
The deal will most likley involve Muswema and an initial cash payment (but I cant determine if this would be a full sale of one or more assets or a JV with an initial cash payment to ARC).
After the deal (either sale or JV) the major will then progress all drilling and make all key associated decisions on the respective Zam assets ; wIth ARCM either totally out of the picture or as a financially interested passenger.

In terms of timescales it sounds close, potentially after the airborne survey has been received and shared but as per above will need to leave sufficient time to mobilise activity this year after wet season...

Atb

Thanks. Looks good.

Just have to wait and see what happens over the next few sessions in terms of news etc its all we can do.
Market certainly like it and the recent drop below 5p threshold will only have taken any vwap just below 5p (at the lower value on the original terms).

Honestly Id love today's RNS to be because they have a whopper bit of news to release today or Monday on the KSZ, and then to ask for a renegotiation on Molopo. But I/we really won't know until it's there so it's an option and I'm keeping an open mind really.

I'd rather we didn't enter into a new prospect at Molopo just yet (but the extension of 4 days sign posts we may).

Im happy to hold all my shares and have faith in the management (until proven otherwise).
I remember when only two or three of us commented here, so its nice (most the time) to have such a lots of contribution here now (albeit a fair few green boxes too).

Atb everyone have a great weekend

Ignore the sentence after the 'atb' in my first post. Was editing and didn't see to delete it....

cbeadle - no i dont believe the deal will be for ARCM in full. Botswana will be progressed by ARCM IMO

Im not sure anyone can say if the commercial transaction will involve all or some of the Zam assets, but IMO it certainly involves Muswema.
The upfront cash would likely be used to progress Bots assets (albeit we will need time to mobilise ourselves). To drill in Bots you need an EMP to be approved. This was in place with the previous owner and so I 'assume' that this would have transferred to us. I use the word assume as I suppose there could be a requirement to reapply, or ARCM may assess and make changes (I dont see why it would if it would delay drilling)

I should add the use of the words....Plans and priorities of our future potential ‘partner’……

This initial made me think JV with a cash payment upfront however when I reflected I decided it could mean anything but that it suggests ARCM will still have an interested (albeit from arms length from decision making and operational oversight and decisioning)...

Atb

So clearly lots covered but from a commercial transaction perspective I noticed a few things…

Firstly as we thought the arbitration was confirmed as have been executed to
a) avoid time wastage including potential appeals ;
b) lawyer costs (it was confirmed we are paying for our own respective costs as part of arbitration)
c) strategic decision to expedite the current advanced commercial transaction as the legal cases would have / were involving significant DD on the cases that are no longer needed.

While NvS etc wouldn't say what the deal will look like when asked specifically about it, I did hear a few things to feed into an opinion...

Few points I noted

- Another major mining group interested but don’t want to delay as other one is advanced – 3 majors interested (well 2 majors and one mid). ‘Enviable position’.
- ‘Very significant commercial transaction that will transform our fortunes’
- ..when asked about Muswema drilling to 500 metres….interesting reply, as NvS jumped in to ‘couch’ / caveat the answers by saying ‘when / if we are able to finalise the transaction that would be out of our hands…'
- Plans and priorities of our future potential ‘partner’……
- ‘the major who will take over the drilling’….
- Cash – good - 2 million dollar (excluding casa and ‘before any cash from a commercial transaction')
- Time constraints to a commercial transaction: Expressed strong desire to get going as while currently in wet season anyone needing to drill out will need time to mobilise.
- Nothing standing in way of deal now.

The above snippets suggests to me we can expect news in the very near future certainly if they want to get drilling this season and mobilise etc.
The deal will most likley involve Muswema and an initial cash payment (but I cant determine if this would be a full sale of one or more assets or a JV with an initial cash payment to ARC).
After the deal (either sale or JV) the major will then progress all drilling and make all key associated decisions on the respective Zam assets ; wIth ARCM either totally out of the picture or as a financially interested passenger.

In terms of timescales it sounds close, potentially after the airborne survey has been received and shared but as per above will need to leave sufficient time to mobilise activity this year after wet season...

Atb

Clearly there are a number of possibles but if I were speculating on an outcome I suspect a major

Everyone must be getting a pot of coffee before the meeting ......
I'm not expecting much other than some commentary and context regarding the arbitration. Maybe some general strategy related updates and a mention of a few majors still in the frame but won't be able to say much as it's ongoing commercially sensitive etc etc

Cox,

One day you say 'If this company has held back good or bad news or whatever reason, it simply stinks. No matter if it is in our favour or not.'

I find it also an interesting paradox that you say this and then today you appear quite upbeat and happy with the possiblity that KAV would release an RNS and manipulate news releases to influence the shareprice (vwap) ; as it has given you confidence we will get drill news very soon.
The fact is that your opinions change with the wind and are clearly hypocritical.

You also say you've invested more here on Monday...

Oh the irony.

Couple things from your post....

You said 'Have you tried to contact the company? Serious question. Have you tried to correspond with them? This is what I'm calling out. I have invested thousands into this company including a 2k top up Monday (badly timed I admit) but I can't get a response for the last two weeks even to a genuine investor enquiry.'

I have and have always had a reply very promptly but it's obviously a black out so he isn't going to reply to anything ATM. Hence the total silence.

You also said...

'I recommend you just filter me. It's not like I'll miss your 12 posts anyway. Fuku just do the same.'

Absolutely the best advice you've given and the most valuable contribution you've ever made here to be fair Cox.

This game isn't for you. Go find a few good unit trusts.

It is a very short extension. Which is interesting.

I'm not sure how much the VWAP will be impacted unless news is released today, as if today's price stays similar, then Monday would need to be a decent lift in price I imagine to increase the VWAP.

It's all very intriguing. The ongoing complete silence on the last drill, and brief RNS today, is certainly making me feel something is brewing up.

Atb

Totally agree Boaty...
But tk95 wins with the #teamcox comment