Member Info for Fukurokuju79

C1 isn't the key metric really. You need the fully allocated c3 costs. C1 can be profitable but doesn't cover the broader Dev and company costs.

If may be they are making profit when they sell against the contract but it's as possible they aren't. Clearly they are functioning hand to mouth and suppliers remain unpaid and debt defaulting without any obvious signs of movement or intent from NewGen who basically have the keys to the asset.

The only positive RNS would be situation resolved. Until then it's all conjecture.

You could use the terms 'it isn't right at the moment' or you could use the terms 'it's being progressed at the moment'.
It's obviously not finished but it's getting worked on. The deal is developing until we hear otherwise of it's conclusion or otherwise.

Atb

Six months in suspension, after which the Exchange will cancel the admission of AIM. Think suspended 27/10 so until 27/04.

I'm not looking for 7p but then I'm not planning of selling on release if news. I want a lot lot more than 7p.
AA will drill as fast as they can on confirmation IMO.
Also AIM can be a very lucrative market. Certainly don't me no harm.

I do expect a rise on confirmation. How much is a piece of string exercise really.

If the deal is announced with detail of a significant drill plan and timelines Id expect a much better on the day rise.
If not I suspect 5-6p should be where it gets to and then subsequent rises on drill plans, commencement and any results thereafter.

However it all depends on what's released and when so who knows.

I'll be holding anyway. I do think it's possible arcm can have a sustained rise on a decent drill plan and any positive results and GGP, SOLG style activity isn't impossible.

Let's hope so. It's why I'm here anyway.

Atb

Hi Fulmar, Seis already said but wasn't my words was quoting Ella.
Atb

I hope not, but yes it seems certainly possible and a strategic choice they are aiming for.
While a JV obviously has benefits I think by their own admissions it's unlikely to be with a major at this stage, and any JV would want a decent deal for the risk.

I'd personally really like to see some of the drill campaigns through a little further independently ATM. Especially B1 but I think we're months from that if I recall the programme of works summary Ben gave in a relatively recent interview.

Why change your MO of guessing and assuming...;)

I'm sure that Anglo can hold a licence and have variable arrangements under each licence within their name Zambian subsidiary.

We know they (AA) are going to have the controlling interest and be the operater of the areas once completed so IMO it's all still part of the restructuring of the eventual deal that's been released to the market already.

We'll see.

Ella when you say....
' I cannot see licences in Anglo name will be held by the JV. That company has other interests. The anglo licence kav be moved into the JV. The Handa licence hadn't expired but needed an update. Some will be surprised to learn the I am watching Afrimin VERY closely. What will a new application encompass? '

You're inferring you think that the deal will change to a buyout?

Personally I believe it'll stay as a JV that was clearly negotiated over a long timeframe. I personally think the name is linked to the JV however they work the paperwork out. It seems to me like it makes sense to do it this way with the potential added benefit of being a way to retain the area rather relinquish a portion at renewal.

Find out soon enough

SCE2 - the deal on the table is in an historic RNS. Have a gander but it's basically a cracker. AA comit to spending tens of millions exploration to retain 70% of the areas held by ARCM. So ARCM retain the rest (albeit its not 30% as they don't hold them outright). Plus cash payments to ARCM..

It's an incredible deal they managed to secure and for some reason the market hasn't believed it will execute IMO. It was delayed numerous times due to a variety of factors.

I've always been, and others here, that a deal would be done even prior to the actual deal announcement.

Atb

Agree Trek

I hadn't had a chance to check what area the updated cadastre application related to. I'd seen the area number was different to any of ARCMs licences so was going to check later.

So cheers for the posts relating to checking and confirming that.

This update in the cadastre certainly supports those with the view that the deal is very much in fight and progressing, myself included.

I haven't posted much of late but in my case their is strength in my silence, not fear.
Can't speak for others.
As for why would it be different now....you've seen the deal structure that's on the table right. I'd love you to show me anything else that good that's been released. Granted it's not done until it's done but the reasons for delays are widely known and explainable.
More than happy to wait for news and maintain my position here. Nowhere near fair value if the deal concludes. I say if not through a lack of expectation, but just acknowledgement that no one has a crystal ball.
I believe it completes, with some restructuring of the licences at renewal. I'd anticipate a fair shareprice performance on that but if not then certainly on drill plan, commencement and subsequent milestones.
Each to their own.

Almost as odd as your interest in the share register tbh

Yes HNY all. Fingers crossed for 2023, particularly in the first quarter.

Yep I was invested in ortac too. Then sold but reinvested some time ago when we acquired the assets we now have.
Looking forward to the completion etc
Atb

Lots of green boxes. I assume it's Stan the man still moaning.
Walk with your money not your fingers / mouth Stan.

If you're still invested here I've no idea why and being down and praying to get back level shows a lack of confidence in your own belief or a lack of conviction.

I think you've dipped your toe into investing and found yourself in deep water and so are moaning and blaming others. Just my view.

Sadly making money on the markets requires taking losses at times. Certainly requires you to act on your own beliefs.
Life is too short Stan.

Atb

I agree I've always had bids as a billion mcap or bust company.
Was never going to be a straight line to adoption.
All in good time imo

Atb

Ella,
AA aren't green and will have known the status of licences and requirements prior to making the deal.
I think you've low balled the value if one or more tier 1 assets are identified. But even if you haven't thats still a significant uplift.
If the AA deal concludes (which I think it does), and the drill plan gets announced and starts to report meaningful results the market will most likely overvalue the asset prior to any development phase lag.
Over $70 million exploration, by arguably the best major to undertake that activity, on a free carry, plus cash payments to ARCM doesn't feel very limited to me. The costs to AA won't be as high as the costs for ARCM to complete the exploration as they have economies of scale and equipment / specialist / experts that we would have to pay for.
That and the fact they can expedite the exploration timelines and scale up the exploration far beyond the constraints ARCM could manage alone.
The deal is amazing for ARCM to have negotiated.
At the end of the day it matters not if we agree or disagree though. I've a decent position in ARCM and the outcome of my investment won't be influenced by our alignment or misalignment in opinion.