Musings of AA outcome24 Apr 2021 11:56
I like the thought of a JV with AA to extract maximum potential share value. Especially if AA pony up for progress at Zambia. They could lead and Arc manage the potentially new asset in the KCB in Botswana (subject to that completing).
As some also say a new asset being signed could be to have a highly prospective project if indeed a buyout is on the cards.
Can't really put any pieces together though and can only wait. I personally like the finality offered by a full buyout, takes out any potential investor regret as the price is what it is. (Depending on the deal).
However I do think greater value is achieved with a JV. My only real concern with a JV though is that we don't have 100% now and even if AA wanted to have a smaller % position from this commercial transaction, if that is their modus operandi, Im not sure how it can really be divided happily between parties. I'd actually quite like the JV to be achieved by AA buying out Kopara Investments share. It's the only real clean way I can see it.
ARCM can retain our existing majority position in the assets and a significant partner to pony up.
AA get a reasonable share.
Plus two is a company and three is a crowd.
I'm not overly researched in kopara or any politics in the region that would make this a totally unfeasible options but for me it's what I'd like to see and what makes sense commercially.
It's really hard to say what the outcome would be. I think the future can be bright in the event of any outcome, including no deal. Albeit short term price impact value will eventually be attributed, it'll just change investment timescales IMO.