Member Info for FreeTheCaterham7

MMs will price it according to the trade flows they see.
MMs are not big on putting their own valuations on stocks

Stay calm everyone

Teck stake changed hands 12th, reported to Co. 13th, RNSed 14th. Its possible GLEN have bought more, yet to be RNSed.
I think they would only need ca. 8m shares to push them through 10% so if there is no TR1 tomorrow they have prob stopped

@wasarunner said - "from the holding RNS apparently it isn't Glencore buying the rest?"
Why do you think this? Maybe I missed something in the RNS .... or do the dates not line up?

@Lucando
It's quite rare for any stock to move in a straight line. A little rise like we have had will inevitably bring out some sellers.
1m shares is only 1/40th of 1%....
Having said that Glencore wouldn't have to buy that many more to go over 10%. I think it would be significant if they carried on buying after trousering Teck's stake

Yes, that is helpful. 7.90 - 8.10 according to live pricing on HL.

An increase by an existing holder is prob less interesting than a new buyer...but they have paid a small premium to the market and to the placing price so still encouraging signs.
If they did carry on buying yesterday the TR1 for that stock may be yet to come.

I think what happens is, the price goes up, then over the next day or two people notice and some of them sell.
That's all.

To pass futility you just have to show that you have a reasonable chance of meeting the trial's goals. You don't actually have to meet them.
http://onbiostatistics.blogspot.com/2012/03/futility-analysis-in-clinical-trials.html

"An example for futility analysis: at the beginning of the trial, we assumed 65% successful rate for new treatment group and 50% successful rate for the control group. We would like to establish superiority. In the middle of the study, we did an interim analysis. The interim analysis showed 55% successful rate for new treatment group and 50% successful rate for the control group. Based on the results from the interim analysis, we can calculate the probability and conditional power: if we continue to finish the study, what is the probability of the new treatment group better than control? If this probability is too small and meets the pre-specified criteria, we would stop the trial for futility. If this probability is reasonable, we can continue the trial as pre-planned"

"Yes, how we passed futility at the mid point is a mystery."
Is it?
Surely if the mid point results indicated possible benefit it would pass the futility criterion? That would be consistent with the final results….. signs of benefit but not statistically significant to a 95% confidence level

It makes sense that the first place(s) Teck would go would be the existing holders. I’m not sure that they would have the bargaining power to get any of the existing holders to pay a premium but who knows.
I think it’s possibly more likely to be Glencore or maybe a new buyer. We’ll see.

Indeed.

Fair point...I think board changes are pretty sticky though. I daresay that Teck have been planning their exit from both the board and the shareholders register ever since they chose not to participate in the fund raising

Charts schmarts

I don't think they just boot her out the day Teck reduce their holding.

Maybe he sold all his shares and doesn't follow HZM any more

It's not certain that Teck's whole position has changed hands.

Lucando said - "1 share gone through. RNS incoming"

What is the connection?

Trade publication can be a bit opaque. It could be a sell of half Teck’s stock at 7.20 and a buy at 7.30, or it could be both trades the same way but booked at different prices. I’m not sure why they would do that but it would be consistent with what Ivor reported on the pre-open this morning.

Unless both those trades are the same way