Member Info for Fozdog

Didn’t receive email from hl despite the fact I emailed them several times but the corp actions button is there next to bcn holding.
You can choose to accept that’s it, no reject button.
Says you have till midday 11th November but also states could closer earlier….
Nice gentle reminder in there could end up with delisted stock.
Little naughty that as if you are going to comment on one outcome, should comment on all no?
Either way it’s there.

Cj it gets made unconditional at 50.1% or whatever it is - if you say no and gets made unconditional you will not get the money offered and will continue to own the shares unless it hits mandatory take out at 90% or sufficient % enough to revert back to a scheme.

Have a look at good energy….I owned them in the kids isa and accepted at 340p and they’ve just moved offer to 400p.
So it clearly can be done! :)

My understanding is that the offer can be only declared unconditional post the following:

Ganfeng has also irrevocably undertaken not to permit the Offer to become or be declared unconditional until the earlier of (i) 30 October 2021 (ii) Day 60 and (iii) the date the Bacanora Board approve the Zinnwald Distribution,

Therefore I would say if you reject, you won’t know the offer is unconditional until declared unconditional as above (not sure Gf allowed to talk market and say has x % amount offered to them by broker letters as they did m&g?)

Iv read it as once it’s declared unconditional the offer ceases to exist.
Therefore I have no idea wether you have enough time to reject it, get a notice from Gf that says we have 75% for eg and tell your broker to change your acceptance.

Jam this is my big concern. If you are left with a limited share exposure and listed you could get absolutely ironed out here.
Don’t forget that there was £$150mn facility that needs replacing, what’s to stop a capital raise -40% to replace that and Gf take up their share? Do you believe the pis have the firepower for that? If they did would be in a much stronger position than we are now.
I’m certainly not saying this is the case but tomcat is very keen to get everyone to vote no as thinks can push the price up by redistribution.
I am playing devils advocate and saying you could be left in a really murky position as a pi.

Or maybe taking the view That if you don’t agree to it and left with stock might get smashed lower?

It’s 1% of the banking sector in China, whilst I don’t disagree about some volatility it’s more from inflated prices and heading into year end than down solely to evergrande.
Also let’s be clear stocks are where they are because of endless qe, something the pboc has ample fire room for.
You stated it’s a great long term bet surely you average in lower than just Chuck out all your holding? Or at least sell part and maintain a core holding?
The liquidity is the factor in znwd also, buying and selling 100k stock for eg Iv found hard work.
Definitely not saying you are wrong regarding volatility I think we have it and into early oct even if bounce at month end. You might get a better opportunity but znwd is over 20% off it’s recent highs one month ago. That’s same as China stock market.
I just can’t see you getting much more than another 10% pull back and even then might get killed on the bod/offer!
Could understand if was a large metals company but when the eu has companies coming out to be carbon neutral by 2040 and bojo is about to launch 10bn spending spree….not sure making the best decision!

Did you see the inaugural gilt green bond today also?

All of this renewable is going one way and it needs to be much quicker than the rubbish 2050 targets they’ve set.

All the best bonkers can’t disagree on anything you’ve posted. This stock has shown up the best and worst part of investing. Upside and excitement but also teaching you how emotional we can get and make bad decisions, how important the bod can be etc.
I’ll be glad to finally see the back of this, will see it through to decision day. I agree with you on better investments elsewhere, but I am also thinking we’re about to hit 2-3 weeks of Volatility in October.
Chinese stocks are almost 20% of the highs half tempted to wait for it and buy gangfeng!!!
All the best and good luck with other investments.

Hi John I’m no tax expert and would never give advise. Only advise I’d say get an accountant and let them deal with it!!!
Tomcat there are downsides at play here, depends where we shake out on numbers and I’m not enjoying Chinese rhetorics at the moment.

John it’s dividend I think?

We are all receiving it including Gf, which to be honest should be giving up their 10% odd as part of the deal.

I think the documents Have been made to imply that Gf are giving us znwd - they aren’t. The bod are and shareholders now are agreeing to distribute znwd and as part of the proposal, I think the documents are to protect distribution of that “dividend” if they take over?

The only caveat in there is about deal becoming “unconditional” so whilst it’s linked to the deal in some regard let’s not act like this is Gf giving us a “bump”. They aren’t and they should have given up their share of znwd also which is pretty petty they haven’t. Maybe technical why can’t on distribution being fair to all shareholders…

I really wouldn’t worry about tax concerns till next year and post outcome.
It’s clear though they have more to give and can give an increase in a cash dividend, does one hit the gamble button….getting tempting!

N7455 on hl log into your account, into portfolio for each place it’s sits ie isa and share account - on the line with Bacanora in it look to the right at the buttons after pnl etc. There is a blue one is you scroll over will have Corp actions on it. If you click that it’ll take you to screen where can vote on specie ie receiving dividend.

You should have received an email I did for 4 family accounts so check junk mail? If not the above has enough info.

I am most likely voting yes to the deal, although I am swinging to voting no to at least part of my holding.
Do I like the deal no, but at some point I have to draw a line under this investment and this is kind of it.
Do I believe there’s a decent chance for uplift and further distribution? Sure but unlikely to be a chance I’m willing to take as I still see downsides.

Oggy I read it as a vote on the speccie therefore have voted yes.

Don’t think any of us will ever be happy and like the bod.
However for sake of trying to find I’m thinking back to when we issued stock to M&g and Gf at 25p.
I hated that deal felt was made of shear desperation, but Iv begun to wonder if the bod made deal back then that they would sell out…and we had limited options elsewhere to raise funds.

We could have been in a real issue back then and however much we dislike it we rolled over then and the bod will prob argue without Gf and that deal we were in serious issues.

I’m not saying above is my view but I can fathom it.

John/kluck my understanding is that any changes to the deal even if you submit acceptance means you will receive any new terms.
They receive rights to change up to the legally binding or conditional date whether that be reverting back to a scheme or new dividend or new offer. We have the same rights. I’ll ask someone who will know.

I also believe the only way they increase the offer is via a dividend/distribution as it doesn’t require going back to Gf shareholders so you will still be the stock owner at this point.
Once the conditional date has passed and any subsequent execution dates then to be honest I really don’t know the outcome.
Again not 100% sure here but they can’t just get 55% then come back 10 days later and go right now offering £1 for remaining as they would have time restrictions on another offer no and still need Gf approval?

The positives are it’s abundantly clear they want this, the terms (dates) for renumeration on the bod reflect that also. Strikes me as they all want this wrapped up way before year end which not sure what that is for Gf but I’m assuming want it all done way before end of nov.

They hold the cards in terms of decisions because will know the outcome ahead of time / if it looks like most have submitted and they have way over 75% then revert back to scheme?

If it looks in the 50-75 range they could come back with increased offer via some dividend only payable on acceptance.

If you hold out and say no then depending where you land in Gf % holding terms could negotiate a better deal for yourself.

My issue is I don’t see anyway that you get a better deal via Gf going back to shareholders but once they are over 50% owner and bod members then they can decide to offer to buy back stock at a premium and retire it. Or you can offer to company and they might pay you more etc.

It is a bit of a game of poker, to use tomcats analogy previously …we’re on the river with a flush draw v 3 of a kind.
Genuinely I’d love to say no and think there’s a great chance for a cash payment to be given but it’s simply the pain of dealing with it if get that wrong. Maybe say no to some holding is the best idea but not sure can walk into the barn door with the company anymore.

Confused by the relevance of 3x£2m looks like a cash settled derivative no?
That’s the only rns I see triggered by 1% changes.
Also makes sense to go through at mids on those levels, really not sure why this has any relevance…..

Mr C I am saying post the deal.
My understanding is Secker is gone after this completes? So whatever that is after Oct 31st.

So if you are left with 60% holding for GF at the end of this or 70%, at some point next year they can decided to make an offer to buy back stock from BCN - The company BCN can make the offer not GF.

Therefore if BCN say please offer us in your shares, we offer them in and they get bought - they can retire that stock. By doing so GF holding could move above 75% of the issues share capital out there remaining and thus delist.

Hi All, starting a new thread and keen to hear thoughts.

If we are in this range and not close enough to get to switch back to scheme of arrangement what could happen post deal closing ie lets say 31st Oct and what ever settlement etc post that?

GF will have BOD members and controlling stake and control on the board.

Of course there are restrictions for GF entity buying more stock but what's to prevent BCN offering a share buy back to reduce the outstanding stock and get GF above the 75% needed to delist?

If they were 70% for eg could they listen to private offers into BCN - GF shareholders cannot dictate what BCN treasuary or BOD do therefore do not need approval from GF shareholders
.
Could they say to market in however many months they might need to wait that 'BCN BOD has decided to do a stock buy back up to 10% of the share capital' - it would retire stock and get GF above 75%.

Thanks for update Dee, the bit im finding tough/wrestling with at the moment is post the outcome.....and its making me teeter a little!

I can't stand reading RNS's with comments starting about 30% growth expected in LI and the outlook from ZNWD also. How we can talk about funding for next 15 months and then we said expect to be producing in 2023 which is effectively the 15m of funding we have.
How could the BOD throw it away as a good deal with that outlook? Therefore what are we missing? Have Mexico implied something?

At 90% you don't have to worry.

75-90% and not enough to revert to scheme, my biggest concerns are how they treat you BUT they could also get to a point just to pay you out if offered shares privately into them.
Do you want to be in this and vulnerable to now way our bar GF themselves ? That's my concern but they can also just pay you much better and it's not a recorded price....GF and yourself are a private transaction so don't have to declare to market what paid you.

the 50-75% is what I am struggling with, do they just come in and up the price - do they wait and up the price later? Do they keep you going on into 23? Are you actually holding a really good asset that they will want to clear you out on?

Once this is completed remember GF own over 50% of BCN - therefore they can actually buy the BCN stock back and DONT need approval from GF shareholders.

As they will be the main votes and control on BOD they can BUY BCN stock back via BCN it has nothing to do with GF. - This is what is making me want to hold on to at least some for 50-75% range...

But also what happens to the stock? We all know the outlook for LI but would the illiquidity on this potentially cause some issues?

My concern would be its in that range, nothing happens then you see a sell off in the market and if anyone tried to sell this with what will be a much smaller effective free float gets crushed.

It's becoming really tough, is the possible upside enough in a shorter period of time? Im not sure it is as even if they offer £1 ie 30% it could be another 9 months down the line and think other LI perform better in that time.

Tomcat grow up!
Iv stated that I would leave this till the last minute and I’m still 100% accepting as of right now. You don’t get to tell someone they should “leave the thread alone” because it doesn’t suit you rhetoric.

Comments and views are welcome by all means ignore my comments but don’t sit there acting…all high and mighty….like you have some info…..that no one else…..is aware….and if you remain cryptic…..then….maybe….some will listen…

Let’s be clear I don’t care if you don’t accept the offer. Couldn’t care less what you do. Iv been completely open and prepared to listen to counter arguments but as of right now they are weak, especially yours. You are “punting” and good luck to you, but don’t ever tell me what I can and can’t do.
And you could also leave some pis in a very precarious position.

Why don’t you call every broker out there because they won’t agree with you?!
Oh hi…it’s tomcat…..you don’t agree with me….so maybe you shouldn’t publish….it’s not for you…..