Member Info for Fozdog

I know John, I am not happy & no one should be but there will be those that bought cap raise at 45p and see a nice 50% return for their funds in 3-6months....so not everyone is one same boat.

The issue is we can't change anything till we have a formal bid or GF walk away.
Extensions don't imply walk away, pricing doesn't imply that also. Get the bid and then you really find out where the BOD is & where larger shareholders are. The BOD can't hide at that point....
As said before if the bid looks likely to fail that's when someone might step in and take a stake here.

Our share in ZNWD is worth what £25-30mn odd now? When they started the bid it was circa £10mn.
I still never know why we didn't raise enough money to fund ZNWD I mean we needed £10m to buy out rest of Solarworld and we raised extra cash so had enough to do that. Maybe muddied the waters for BOD to get what they want from this?

I wrote a post saying why don't we force GF to stump up money for ZNWD the moment they hit 28.8% and you actually replied to me along the lines of not upsetting GF ie 'you dont rock the boat with your major partner' !!! Well that worked out....

I agree SP would be higher, but what could and would have been is irrelevant now.
All that matters is getting a firm bid and then doing everything possible to get it resoundingly rejected. Everything else is irrelevant.

No mrC think you are missing what I’m saying.

I am not happy with 67.5p, i am voting no “when” we finally get there.

Whatever is going on with extensions 3 months ago The bod and gf have “preliminarily” agreed 67.5p and entered into a scheme of arrangement.
That is there and fixed we can’t change that.

The point is right now the bod can’t say and can’t do anything until a firm offer is on the table.
Gf can’t change anything their side until they have put the offer firm on the table and triggered form 2.7 which is legally binding.
In a dream / fantasy world they are discussing with bod and realise no chance getting this through so already looking at the next valuation or bid post this (if there will be one).

Once the firm bid has actually happened then the actual discussion begins and anyone else looking will get involved.

First the bod have to opine - and they then can answer questions.
So if they say we think it’s a good deal and recommend it to shareholders we are all going to argue the case and lose our cool.
Or they reject it as undervalued, very slim chance of that with the current bod.

M&g if have any sense (and others) will not opine until deal is FIRM. Same goes for anyone looking at this whether as undervalued, whether trying to merger arb it or for whatever reason they want exposure, they will not step in and play their hand until a deal is on the table.

I’m simply saying we can complain as much as we like but our bod entered this scheme months back - the only way it gets changed is with a firm bid. That firm bid does not happen until all gf ducks are lined up. That includes everything from financing into escrow to any agreements, forms and instructing everyone their side.
They will get charged substantial more fees the moment this becomes a firm bid than current format.

So right now we are in wait game, I am accepting that a Chinese company takes FOREVER and will be Uber cautious before firm bid.
We need that firm bid to proceed on anything else, and Iv come to terms that we are all in a waiting game with
Gf not some major plot by the bod.

I still want to see 67.5p and see it get rejected hands down. We will then be finally able to underpin ourselves at that valuation and ramp higher like other Li miners

Hi John, sure I get that but you still have to get to a deal.

Their deal has always been 67.5p and we can't moan on that. We can moan about our BOD recommending it rather than rejecting it out of hand but that's a diff matter to where we are now.

If you believe your upside is only ever 67.5p then you should have sold 2 months ago.
I know iv moaned in the past and on reflection I am changing my view on moaning that the board or gf can do anything else but get to 67.5p bid.

We need that firm on table before can see any progress or commentary or anyone else stepping in.
It's a waiting game and the risk whenever you bring a Chinese company into it - One minute everyone was going on how great GF is and the 'partner needed', now moaning that their processes take forever.

No one complained bar myself on the 25p cap raise when it took 3 months to get their money.

I personally think this is the last major extension, anything else will be small and technical imo so given its another 3 weeks v 3 months and I still see further upside, I am happy waiting it out.

As frustrated as Iv been and with our BOD it's easy to think they are doing for their own incentives ...however I looked into likes of imagination and Chinese involvement in deals - How much time it actually takes for them to be in a position to pull trigger.

I genuinely believe this is nothing more than getting ducks in a row.

Do I agree it should be handled like this? No, the panel needs to change rules with respect to commitments something that takes 3months ie 1/4 should require a statement as to why its being extended.

I remain sat back here as I think we have every right to ask for a Sonera update before any decision is made now with respect to a bid. We could have done a lot in the last 3 months....

I also believe it strengthens others looking at BCN and waiting for bid clarity before playing their hand.

I remain pretty relaxed and see upside from here.

Personally I just think the delays and extensions are just what happens when dealing with a Chinese company.
They aren’t going to get to form 2.7 unless their money is out the country, in escrow and they are ready to proceed.
I am starting to just get pretty relaxed about it, took forever for them to put their share of raise in. Just is way it is, I personally think we are close and if don’t get something ahead of this deadline next extension will be granted if literally limited due to documentation etc.

As frustrating as it’s all been here, I still believe we just need the deal on table before we see how others will behave. I’d love to see someone step in but why play your hand now without an actual bid.

We just have to wait it out.

totally agree Jam, the new valuation given the delays needs to be reflected.

I am increasingly heading to bullish argument....any Merger Arb type or funds etc will be waiting for the actual offer - Once the 2.7 is in and legally binding thats when you go buy up the secondary market.

I think one reason to keep holding is IF/WHEN this becomes a formal offer - I actually think we will trade higher than 67.5p. If we do M&G and co wont be able to say yes.

There is a long way to go here team, sit back and chill.

I had a chat with someone on the M&A side about way deals work etc.
Said it's a nightmare with China takes forever - the big thing is when you go to form 2.7 over 2.4 that is legally binding. Therefore you need all the financing, all the money and everything in place. You don't get to just walk away at that point without massive fees. Its a bit like exchanging on a house over putting an offer in....
You also start incurring heavy fees from the banking units etc. With China all the issues with getting funds out the country can take a while.
So as pessimistic as I am about reasons why I can understand the above.

Also said that the panel will run out of patience, will be hard to get another extension unless its literally 1-2 weeks on things like escrow or documentation issues, not another month.

Morning John, just disappointed with it all. Time to move on do we have a company or not is way I see itC doesn’t need 4 months to work that out.

I just looked under Ganfeng, was saying start of year might as-well own Ganfeng over BCN....well its gone from 100 to 190, literally what's the point ever owning the assets anymore better to just own the manager!
Really don't get how they can be 90% up YTD and were -9%.....

Im also reading taking part of a placement in arena minerals , nowhere near the discount they shoved on us with M&G

Haha John just no one has anything to add. Boring isn’t it, got to sit out and wait till whatever they decide to do over the next week!

Seems to be an all cash offer and recommend and “approved” by the millennial lithium board…only says subject to regulatory approvals which I’m assuming is Canada regulation sign off that’s all. There’s no “scheme” of arrangement just an actual arrangement and cash offer.
They are sending out an memorandum to voting shareholders so to me…pretty clear cut!
I can’t see anything about a scheme from previous, this looks clear offer and acceptance.

Can’t help but lol, what else can you do.

Never scorn a profit Mr C...! Jeez this is all boring now, can someone kindly get on with it?

well it's a CFD so its prob on some margin and it will be non-voting.
So im just intrigued as to why someone buying/taking view as it's showing more confidence than others. Im just intrigued if it is due to being that confident the deal will go through or if thinks there is upside. Or its something else like hedging that missing entirely.

Yeah them, looks like they’ve added more today….about the most interesting thing going on here!

Mrc from my understanding if a firm is are involved in the 'possible' transaction such as an advisor or broker eg Peel Hunt you have to disclose any transaction you make in BCN.

If you run a market making business you will most likely be allowed to facilitate non-solicitated client flow but no do any material transactions or position taking.

Therefore due to firm involvement & under takeover code you have to report every single trade your firm does, I don't believe you will be allowed to run a long or short even as a market maker (most firms will block you from doing anyway if involved).

Effectively in my opinion its nothing, the only one that triggered me was someone on a CFD going over 1% last week because CFD's dp not give you voting rights..... so to go over 1% you would assume pretty confident in an positive outcome ie higher price or deal accepted.
Have no idea if its a hedging strategy.

It’s funny how this is still isn’t at offer stage…assuming making one which we all reasonably assume they are.

Given m&g comments in the press about undervalued U.K. companies from Michael Stiasny whose names on the m&g fund where bcn sits ….I do wonder if they don’t think will get it through?
I put delay down to them just trying to beat shareholders into submission but now m&g are right in the firing line reckon they are much less confident.

One more speculation from me…can we say that this was also a defensive tactic by both Gf and bod to get the sp up?
I had never really considered that they all though it was way undervalued and this is also one way to push sp to defend from predators

Looks like added to a long and gone over 1% via a CFD, interesting given you don't have voting rights attached.

jimb2 I think the market is not pricing in EV demand ad govt recycling programs being bought way forward from the 2030 date.
If you think about infrastructure needed, also changing petrol/diesel cars out and getting people to change habits you need to incentivize people really from now....then ramp up hard in 2025. Your going to have 1-2y waiting lists on EV's maybe longer closer we get to 2030.
I think this all turns very hard in 23-25 on demand stakes and LI will go through roof. Just my view!

So from the original RNS - It is expected to take up to eight months for the Outbound Direct Investment Pre-Condition to be satisfied, such that in the event that each Pre-Condition has been satisfied (or alternatively waived if capable of waiver), the Agreed Form 2.7 Announcement should be made prior to 31 December 2021.

The RNS yesterday said that had been completed, so all that is left is Ganfeng 'due diligence' which can be waivered and I really can't see how they can justify taking time here given their ownership/involvement in the company.

I really expected the offer to be in today, the original scheme of arrangements was around 12-30 so let's see.

Effectively there is no rational to drag this out on 'due diligence' as Ganfeng simply doesn't need it for a company it owns 28.8% in.

If it's being dragged out just seems ploy but right now its in everyone's interest to get to vote.

Any thoughts when this might come? I was thinking the old Friday 459pm, give it 5 working days so PI's cant get their votes done in time....Or does it get dragged out to 28th?