RE: Buy Out15 Jun 2021 17:18
There are always risks and it comes back to why you are buying.
My personal view is that you buy here because you believe you believe there will be a firm bid and thus have a lot of optionality.
If it gets to firm bid which imo again seems likely (90%), then you have the upside if it goes through and are prepared to sit for 6-9 months.
If it doesn't and gets rejected (which is what im hoping for), then you have a collective long term shareholding group that believes in much deeper value here.
I also personally believe Ganfeng will come back with a higher price.
As a result of all of this BCN will also be much larger on people's roadmap than before and I think could go from strength to strength....With AMLO relaxing, Mexico concerns will ease and I think you see demand for these regions pick up.
Iv said this before, if you look at other lithium comps weve barely outperformed the likes of LAC even with Bid spec. Therefore I do not believe we pull back much past 50-55 (yes we might dip to 50p and rally from there) if Ganfeng bid 67.5p, it's rejected and that's their only bid.
The risk is they don't make a bid, again im pricing that best sub 5% and we would have more dramatic drop in short term.
The other concerns (im sure others who are short will jump on this) are that Ganfeng will slow down the mining/developing the asset - I do not believe they are petulant and I do not believe that is the case.
In my view they will seek to speed it up and increase production as quick as possible given they will only have 50% of the offtake. This is now in the news and someone else stepping in would be a serious thorn in Ganfeng side - one they don't want to risk imo. Therefore pushing on to production and increasing the SP to prevent others stepping in is both in ours and their interest.
All in all I think as long as you can hold a drop back to 50pish and not concerned as in this for longer term then as you said should be adding.