Member Info for Fozdog

Confused what you are asking, You said if deal went through? If you are talking about what value this could be if deal doesn’t there’s a load of scenarios.

But if you are simply saying deal goes through, it’s all agreed and no competition issues or intervention too stop it, then it’s going to trade at circa 10% discount for me due to the time delay.

I actually think if we push on in coming week to low 60s and we are not too far from that now, that’s pricing a rejection and a subsequent higher price to come.

For me you have so many decent options here for upside and really only one downside that might take you back to low 50p. But most long term shareholders here can brush that off without any concern.

It won’t be a quick 15%, the rns stated that for outward investments from China can take months. I read something about 8-9 months. Also you need to get to approval from U.K. regulator etc.
So if you are assuming 100% deal is agreed, approved and no hitches....you are prob looking to be sat on this at least till year end I would assume.

Fwiw Hargreaves have said to me “to register your vote please send a secure message 5 days in advance of the agm” - so be mindful when it comes to voting on a deal the time lag your providers will want.

Bonkers why waste your sat night on this? Filter him and have done with it. He has no value at all, I filtered the moment he was saying “sell you shares and buy back cheaper” to “stick it to the board”! I mean how exactly?! He back then also said he made 20k, he would have needed to trade more Than the entire volume that day as a day trader or had a leveraged short on. I’d be surprised you can get a leveraged short.
From your posts he’s telling everyone to sell again - it’s his benefit. He’s short he wants the price down to cover and he’s prob under pressure from margin calls.

He will not offer you value ever so Chuck the garbage away, leave him in filtered.
As you said, status quo on long term if fails and price falls so who cares less about his little peddling?

I actually thinks it’s borderline market manipulation so I wouldn’t even bother responding to him.

Hi Nomad, not disagreeing that the board isn't happy with it. In theory they shouldn't be given we traded at that level 6 months ago without a capital raise!
Which comes back to their remuneration and benefits for getting this done. Is it in shareholders or the board interest?

The point is there is v little more can do here, we will know lot more as we approach 28th and post that date.

Also we jumped the gun on the AGM - Its 30th June so that is post a likely firm offer - Therefore I think we will be able to discuss the takeover in the Q&A but it wont be in the 'formal business' of the agm.

On conclusion of the formal business of the AGM, the Directors and advisers will conduct a question-and-answer session on any other matters that shareholders wish to raise.  Shareholders are requested to submit any questions by e-mail to info@bacanoralithium.com by no later than 2.00pm on 28 June 2021.  

m_wall I think the SP gets interesting closer to the 28th June and Ganfeng shareholder vote.

I actually think the current SP 57.5-62.5p is the range we will be sat on.
My reading is what's right discount for several months holding a Chinese company if a deal has been agreed? I would think circa 10% so around 61-2. If we hit those levels its pricing success. I arguably think these levels are pricing in 70-% chance this goes through.

IF we start going through those upper bound levels ie 62-3 then that's when I think it gets interesting....The board wont make any comments before they have a firm offer.
Once they have an firm offer they then can state their views and engage shareholders accordingly.

This is where im most intrigued because we will know exactly their thoughts on it but also with the gap between us voting and price could we see more offered?
I would assume Ganfeng dont want to lose this and wait for another 12 months if it is just a matter of price.
This is where we will have a much better idea from IIs and board - I would assume if the BOD said to Ganfeng this isnt going through at 67.5p best on conversations weve had but it would at 85p....then there is capacity for Ganfeng to go back to their shareholders accordingly and just whack on another delay.

Then again they might say its their only offer.

Hi Jam,
my understanding nothing to do with holding is because they are involved - whether that be a corp broker, advisor or whatever they are deemed involved and therefore have to record any buy or sell not down to % moves.
Its to record all transactions and keep the strong Chinese walls in place.

I would assume are not able to trade this aside from Market making activities to facilitate client flow. No one else at Peel will be allowed to trade it.

Not again Mr C why do you honestly respond to this puzzle person? You will get 0 value add from it, it clogs up the board and it clearly winds you up!
It was clear before I filtered had a short on. I am noticing correlation between green prices and 'this message has been filtered'! Must be getting a margin call on the short soon!!!

As said before you might not like filter but it works here, when you have rubbish you throw it out. Don't let it sit and fester, get rid of it!

Hi Thompson, I think Govt around the world are especially when they are making commitments for emissions by 2030 etc.
I was actually pondering about how Mexico plays into BCN considering they were talking about strategic partnerships in mining? Nice spot they are in, Chinese owner, US border and UK listed!

Mr C speculating here, but do you remember we were going on about why haven't we got an listing in the likes of Nasdaq similar to EMH? When bought it up they were so quick to say not wanting to get a dual listing...

Given where this is based on US/Mex border I was always dubious...Now I do wonder...Chinese ownership....US listing....something is so afoot here.

Ok Chris I don’t think that’s fair and disagree but each to their own.
Everyone I have seen on this board with value has always talked this prospect up and willing to listen to balanced negative arguments also.
Think when they sold 106.9mn shares mainly to institutions via a placement not really sure a few shout outs on value being £2+ on message boards going to impact the price!!!

Panderman, It’s just diff sizes sentiment is the same.
I have one article seared in my brain. Was written in 2019, if you had put $1000 into appl, Amazon, ebay, etc there were 10 of them, ie $10k, it was worth $1mn in 2019.

I was looking at the trades here for out to 2030 not to be cut out at 2021 for a tiny price.
We are way behind on transition for 100% ev by 2030, yes the technology will and could change. I had my view, put it on and feel pushed out. 1000 shareholder v 1mn it’s same sentiment and we’ve all equally had a bod that’s performed poorly imo.

Hi Panderman yep I am! I was here for long term and I meant long long term. I don’t like the way this has played out, my thesis for how I thought was going to end up is wrong.
I also thought there was more chance ganfeng taking off us when got stock at 25p than now and got that totally wrong.
If you think about the funds here and funds in general...they start from 0 performance at year end.
So from jan 21 we started at 64p. If you sell out at 67.5p you haven’t even made 5%....could have bought the ftse and done a lot better for the risk.

M&g didn’t add recently at 45p so I’d be massively disappointed if they agreed this. That fund has been around for a long time, a very long time. They are long term in that fund so why cut something that’s going to give you 5% ytd return? I don’t believe they will....

I feel like we’ve been misled with intentions and had a weak board that’s made a lot of mistakes along the way. I do not fault ganfeng, well played to them.
I first bought in 52 or something like around nov 18. Averaged all the way down but Iv made a lot of mistakes here so will learn.
I sold a few things to fund this when in the covid doldrums, and this has massively hurt in performance terms v those...
Made a huge mistake not hedging myself with LAC, sat there and went 100% for bcn when lac was 2.5p. Lac gets to 22p whilst bcn my 15.3p buys equivalent for that time got to 67p in dec. Sensible would have been 50-50 but I didn’t do that.

I really feel for those in here much higher, all that time and effort to be dropped by your bod is unfair.

Nomad/John we can all but try at the agm and Dee is great to lead all of this. Whatever happens he’s put in a lot of hard work and really deserves a pat on the back and a pint.

My view is this
1 - enough pis say no and we get lucky with robecco or m&g. I looked at Bloomberg holding list there is definitely enough private accounts to block this so keep going Dee.
2 - I would request the panel to look into any conversations pre - bid. Imo if m&g or others have agreed pre the bid then they are linked to the buyer and I’d ask the panel to drop their vote as a linked party to buyer.
3 - we need to lobby an activist shareholder, something working on but it’s a small aim company. Hfs worth a chat. Again very unlikely
4 - keep lobbying the govt again not naive less than 5% chance but so what worth it
5 - do pis and I’ll ask Dee want to look at Corp solicitor here and do they feel there is a case for legal action? Reason I say this comes back to capital raise, timing, discussions, bod renumeration etc.

I’m making no accusations or libel comments here simple think there’s a case for this to be looked at.

Chrisp I totally disagree with you and that’s very unfair.

You don’t run around screaming how cheap something is and people on this board have done for a long time.

I don’t believe in mindless ramping for benefit in same way I utterly distaste the two recent new comers that are promoting negative material for their apparent shorts and “border” - line manipulation.

I am heavily regulated and not going to start shouting across a board how cheap something is without backing it up.
In the same time I said to John that I think we were underperforming due to Mexico and there were better short term opportunities.

I bought cusn at ipo for 7p putting my £ where mouth was and it’s nearly 15 - used money earmarked for bcn so took less up at 45p in capital raise.

The sp would have been higher if they hadn’t over issued on the capital raise and had a load of loose stock out there. The board have made bad moves imo and I have a distinct bad taste towards them.

I for one did not expect post a capital raise to see this bid spec and got that wrong..I am also one that thinks they clearly waited on the bid spec calling it “negotiations” to make the 50% premium lower. This is why they stated 50% as the premium, imagine they had done so 1 month post cap raise? It would be in the mid High 70s.

This has nothing to do with pis moaning, it’s all to do with bod and their actions.

You say you bought a lot at 13p I don’t believe that’s the case I bought lowest during Covid at 15.3p and the trading volumes were terrible.

I personally have circa 500k shares at 29 ish average. I’m massively disappointed and I totally agree with nomad and his comments.

Thanks for the post Nomad, seems a bit ridiculous that it’s described as detailed negotiations and the board felt that was a good price....based on what transactions exactly? I do not see any price that is the same as 6 month high in Dec as a good price when funding has taken place. It’s really disappointing.
Something has always been afoot here, their (bod) renumeration package changed so they do benefit.

Still keeps it very interesting again confirms the 67.5p offer is being put to ganfeng shareholders. Would still like to see someone step in from activist side.
At least Dee has done such a great job, I remain hopeful get enough to vote against this.

I expect you will get those two shorts telling how you should sell now. Can’t see why anyone would at this level given the optionality in it, be nice if they get squeezed.

MrC why do you bother responding to these two? The board gets blocked up with “message filtered” then someone responding to a subject line telling us to sell to fund his short.
When you have rubbish you throw it out - that’s what Iv done here by filtering them, why not do the same?
It was clear ages ago that they literally have nothing to add if any value, it’s just dull. It’s blissful not having to see it, “message filtered” is more value add than reading anything they write!

Hi MrC,
it has been flagged that some email responses have stated that the 'board has made no recommendation'.
I am saying if that is the case they are hiding behind technicalities ie as there is no 'formal' offer as of yet then there is no recommendation yet...
I took the statement from the RNS because like you imo I read the RNS saying they have inadvertently recommended.
Not disagreeing here, im merely stating that if these email responses are correct then it contradicts the RNS.

Anyway its going to be same back and forth questioning stuff till we know outcome of the 28th.
Any

Jam/Nomad - Confirmed to me that if a deal is voted down by shareholders cannot make another bid in 12months unless agreed with the panel consent. Usually only granted when a competing offer emerges.

@Jam & @Nomad...

I spoke to a specialist UK M&A he said that 90%+ deals go through once there is board recommendation even if at a higher price but he doesn't deal with small cap like AIM so said hard to apply same logic here.

The board are not exactly forthcoming, they are hiding behind the fact there is no formal deal on table and therefore haven't opined yet. That's according to email responses....

However when re-reading newswires this morning that wasn't the case?
I quoted bloomberg as saying 'agrees terms' and then the RNS 'The Bacanora Independent Directors view the Possible Offer to be an attractive proposal which they would expect to recommend to Bacanora Shareholders'

Re Bid/Ganfeng I agree with Jam I don't think they can easily agree to keep increasing the bid,....

When I read 'Ganfeng has submitted its application for approvals from various Chinese authorities in respect of its investment, has continued to progress its due diligence exercise and scheduled a shareholder meeting for June 28 to seek approval to proceed with the possible offer.'

As Jam said it's hard to apply logic here, the board are being told by many long term holders that it's undervalued, Ganfeng stock price is also back to their Dec highs, LAC has rallied almost the same with no bid Spec etc.....so could we be here without the bid anyway???

It just all feels so wrong, fully funded project yet we couldn't rally? AMLO also changing his tune. Mexico concerns abating.....

They've done a lot wrong, over issued and raised too much which didn't help the SP (maybe a ploy?), issued too late when the market was hot in Dec & they were not restricted/in blackout and could have issued then at 55p. Now they are saying its 'attractive' and their PI shareholders are all saying it's not?

I also agree they do not want a scenario that waits 12 months but ultimately step 1 is it needs to get to formal offer post ganfeng own shareholders vote. Price wise Im assuming they can move once the investment is agreed?

The key q id like to know - Is the one to gangfend shareholders (buy some ganfeng stock so can ask the Q). Is the q - 'Do you approve a takeover bid in BCN?
Or do you approve a 67.5p takeover bid in BCN?

If they leave price off and it's solely voting on buying BCN then there is capacity for price to move higher.