RE: 11nov acceptance updateā¦16 Nov 2021 19:02
Inspector g, Iāve been wrestling with this for a whileā¦.
I am off the view that majority if not all the āfirmsā or investor managers are already declared. Therefore I canāt see a huge swing from here. I personally think hl have declared theirs (more hunch based on timing and acceptance levels).
Therefore for me itās only really smaller brokers that havenāt yet declared. As such I donāt see much of a shift from here in % acceptance but I could be way wrong.
Either way, I donāt think you get near being able to take the company private and even if they do it remains a listed U.K. company in my view so they still have obligations under U.K. laws regarding updates, shareholders protection etc.
If they remain listed on aim they are under heavier restrictions with reporting, and above all treating āallā shareholders fairly under U.K. law.
This means they canāt just sell the contracts at distorted and discounted pricesā¦.yes they can move it around say 10-20% with long term prices but given the lithium price currently, we are way past bcn forecasts anywayā¦. so even if they discounted the price by that much its much better than forecasted previously by bcn for a few years time ie 2023 anticipated production.
Putting debt in the company requires assets, not just to squeeze pis out, the reporting requirements, risk all of it just not worth it.
My view is they want to speed up production here and get online to replace other assetsā¦thereās not some endless Gf pit of money to keep putting into projects with no return.
Therefore for me the sensible thing for them is to accumulate all they can now. If they get to ability to revert to scheme they will.
If they get 75% give all of those one more chance to sell into.
But if stuck here or maybe in 60sā¦.you look at another round in 3 months time depending on discussions.
As Iv said before they have duty to shareholders under listing rules. All shareholders.
Short term obv if remains listed for me the price should rallyā¦as I think they will come back, but you have to think about the liquidity there will be almost noneā¦so even if rallies wonāt be that easy to get out of it, could hl or other brokers drop it off their trading map? Not sureā¦.depends on whatās left out there?
So assuming around here or low 60% whatās to stop them coming back in another 2-3 months on a share buyback? They can do it via the company without getting approval and for me this is their most sensible outcome. Plenty of cash to use to buy back shares.
I do not Believe this bod nor gf want this deal being looked into deeper and potentially all way back to 25p capital raise with m&g. I also donāt think they want ownership here dragged out.
But who knowsā¦is what it is!