Member Info for Fortissimo

BHP were always going to vote and show they are not happy. I think the fact that both NCM and BHP did not issue the required (decorum under market rules) TR1's shows they are seriously hacked off. Their game plan has been ripped up and turned into shreds.

When CGP get their shares, BHP and NCM should drop below 10% but even then as they are outside UK, they are not 'forced' to declare holdings but like I said... it's the blue chip calibre thing to do. Sadly neither NCM or BHP look very 'blue chip' these days.

I said a while ago that I thought BHP had decided to move on OZ Minerals rather than SOLG. I genuinely think it was them or us and they tried a cheeky one with OZ minerals and succeeded. CGP and NM soon jumped into action when that Oz Minerals deal was announced almost as if they knew they had get ball rolling on an alternative. That all said, I don't think BHP will simply rollover for a Chinese cheap offer. I think they have a price in mind and if Chinese offer more then they will move aside but guess much depends on whether it's lock stock and barrel or whether BHP still retain interest (along with all of us) in the 60 odd licences not involved with ENSA.

BHP might decide to just roll the dice again and see what SOLG can deliver through rest of folio. If NMis so sure there are more Tier 1's there then why sweat it over ENSA? Let that one go and see what comes up next? Hence ENSA deal done then BHP might be happy with that.If deal done for all of SOLG, then that might see BHP come out fighting a bit more.

Many out there interested in Tier1 assets and Chinese are not the only ones looking good at the mo in Ecuador.

A takeover bid exists just as a no bid situation exists.

The question is not about existence of either but of timing. One can come sooner than many think and surprise or the other occurs for longer than many thought...

Tier 1 assets do not remain in limbo or gathering dust on shelves. That's a fact. So logic says a company motivated to seek a sale of such an asset should succeed.

Bubble, since October's merger RNS we've had some risks and headwinds for sure. Market melt down, now looking like an over reaction and forecasts improving. $85m raised with minimal dilution. Merger all sorted awaiting formal paperwork/court sanction. Cash reserves solid post merger.

It really couldn't have gone any better.

Copper and gold prices near mid term highs. What's not to like?

Just need these ARB boys out of the way and the rerate can commence.

Very good news indeed.Another unknown and potential risk gone. Be interesting to see what the ARB boys do today and over coming week as they know the scores on the doors now.

Looks like there won't be any further requirement for equity raises now that our cash pile is free to use for working capital and regional exploration. The SR $50m is for ENSA only so should mean we have around $30m to send on regionals which might be quite interesting as a backdrop to offer/bid talks on ENSA with various parties.

There was a danger early on, that we would need that $30m+ raised via Chinese to pay off some CGP holders. Had that been significant, we might then have needed a second equity raise. So very good news today.

Ortherncopper,

You make sound like it's all sound to Maxit? 48p would be a 3 bagger for some new entrants like Chinese, but considering the majority of large holders are 'in' at well above 28p+ such as Blackrock, BHP, Nam and Norges to name a few... do you think they'll be happy with 48p?

IMHO all Maxit need to do is get an offer presented at 38p never mind 48p. That will be enough to see some come out of the shadows and some spit dummies out. Then it's all about what follows. Bid wars, counter offers etc etc.

Any offer will need to have at least 50% of shareholders behind it before it even becomes a goer in any bid battle.

I can't see NM or BHP or Nam or Norges or quite a few others accepting 48p a share.

So stop worrying about where the share price is now and stop worrying about what makes Maxit look good. Worry about the larger shareholders here and what they might accept. They are the ones that will swing it.

On a personal level, I'd take 58p for ENSA (in current market) but would want SOLG to retain everything else and would expect an sp of 4p to 5p (after 48p paid out) based on Porvenir updates and future drilling across folio. Then I see the potential to grow from 4p/5p levels to around 20p to 25p pretty fast within 24 months on drill success and JV deals. So that would be more like 78p+ in total.

I think NM would happy with that scenario and gives all a chance to discover another Tier 1 or possibly 2 of them over next 2 or 3 years with no delusions of taking them to production this time around!

Important land purchases still required. Resettlements for some groups. Costs millions. Lots to do without the drill bit.

I think some on here are clearly bored waiting for the court sanction on merger. Anyone across the pond have the court hearing date??

Once ENSA is 100% consolidated under SOLG's roof and merger complete etc, then it gets interesting as SOLG become 'open season' to any predators. No one will make a bid until the merger is finalised.

Personally I think a Chinese ENSA deal or possibly Mitsui is already pen'd awaiting final due diligence warts and all.

It's what they have planned for the other 60 odd licences that we need an update on. Strategic review is not just about selling or doing deals on ENSA. IMHO SOLG's 60 other licence blocks hold far more value in them than Alpala... but will take a few holes and $200m+ before being derisked or ready to be partner or saleable.

I don't think it's in shareholders interests to see a full takeover and wouldn't surprise me one bit if BHP let ENSA go to chinese only then to build a higher stake in SOLG's remaining folio with view to delivery even better assets than Alpala. Chinese are no fools so will want a nice package and not just ENSA imho. That's where it gets interesting. SOLG's folio in Ecuador is the largest in the region. Land and opportunities in Ecuador are not easy to come by and sought after.

All about slicing the cake up and keeping Lasso et al happy.

Can't be long now before merger completes. Poss end of next week?

Yep it's been really interesting to watch the ARB traders at play. They seem to be selling SOLG sterling (LSE) and buying up the TSX SOLG cad dollar. CGP stock relatively static which might suggest they have aligned/balanced with the new shares due to be issued in couple of weeks or sooner. Going to be interesting to watch the ARB shorter XIB Asset Management Inc deal with the 12m shares. Might get closed out when new SOLG shares issued or they might doit in open market trading.

addicknt

Question is.... will we be getting the 'addicknt early doors' post to start the day to ponder over our coffees? You've been like clock work over the last few weeks. Almost so precise I'm beginning to question whether you're an Algo bot.

Please one of the below before posting:

1. How many bridges do you see
2. How many buses

I think Alpala / Cascabel is the easiest of all parts to value as most advanced and derisked thus far. So it would be naive to think that the business would go through a lengthy Strategic review process and arrive at a basic outcome which is ... we are seeking buyers for Alpala. END. Mather and co firmly believe there are a handful of Tier1 (rinse and repeat) assets in the folio. I would expect the bulk of the Strategic Review will be focused on what can be packaged in with Alpala sale to boost overall price and attractiveness (eg derisk further by chucking a few sought after licence blocks in around the area? We know Gina G has been buying have acreage around Alpala. She's no fool. We known there is big interest in the south and more recently with Solaris and Warintza. Any buyer of Alpala (whether chinese or BHP) will likely see buying SOLG lock stock and barrel as the best way forwards to secure best value and opportunities. The Strategic Review needs to look at many slices of the cake and decide on how best to realise value from assets that are currently underdeveloped as well as the obvious Tier 1 asset deal/sale.

Licence blocks with limited red tape remaining and in eco warrior 'friendly' areas are very rare in Ecuador and SOLG has quite a few of them as well as a well respected Brand which is equally important going forwards.

No one wants to sell Alpala for 60p and everything else owned by SOLG and CGP bramaderos goes for free.

As highlighted a while ago, open pit Tandy production is a great way for the Chinese or BHP to get the profits rolling in while they derisk Alpala block cave works. The chinese are looking to expand Mirador after starting out with a modest production level. Even the big players like to minimise risk and get early cash generating projects going while they seek to press on with the main assets. It's good business all round and gives some time to test politics and relationships out.

https://knoema.com/kyaewad/us-inflation-forecast-2022-2023-and-long-term-to-2030-data-and-charts

In simple terms, the previous PFS was like banking a mortgage at 3%. If they went for a new PFS (updated) then they'll be getting a 6% mortgage.

There's absolutely no sense at all in revising the PFS down due to what looks like short term inflation concerns.

Porvenir PEA would undoubtedly be benchmarked to current price levels with bucket load of inflation backed in resulting in a rather tepid economic story. Inflation is expected to fall back to 3% levels in next 6 months or so and broader markets are beginning to move to pricing this in. SOLG has not yet moved at all. Still stuck in the 'world is nigh' channel established in the market wash out month of October 2022. As of now the DOW jones is just 2000pts or 7%+ off all time highs! SOLG is trading like broader markets are at multi year lows.

Doesn't make sense and likely is sentiment based. The market didn't blink much on the last PFS so I doubt management see any sense in rewriting what is already a decent PFS whether the market can be bothered or not depends on whether a buyer or partner is interested.

Judging by the way Lasso and Chinese are cuddling up, I'd say the chinese are very interested.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

On a benchmark basis, SOLG should be around 25p to 28p range. Granted, copper correlation not an absolute but key indicator along with PoG. SOLG has ARB issues which should be resolved in next 3 weeks. Thereafter, it would not surprise me to see mid 20's. Many will align that rise with SR rumours or rumours of sale etc etc and then you get snowball effect whereby leading indicators align and bullish sentiment then drives sp on bid rumours.

Stuck in neutral at the moment (or ARB mud) but that can't last forever. There are more reasons for SOLG to return to mid 20's than mid teens (IMHO). Unless markets go into melt down of course!

Rerating already underway with PM's... SOLG likely selling assets or business into a very healthy market backdrop. Not many would have said that possible some 4 months ago when all was doom and gloom.

The usual posters 'looking back' rather than forwards. Give it a rest for goodness sake. Same old dream stuff. We've just jumped a few major hurdles toward a sale or monetisation event.

1. Funding to the tune of $85m.... tick!
2. Tricky AGM and important resolutions to pass.... tick!
3. Merger with CGP vote....a resounding tick!
4. Copper price nearing levels last seen in 2022 when SOLG was 30p+...
5. Ecuador free trade deal signed with Chinese
6. New strategic chinese investor brought on board to help offset BHP/NCM weighting.
7. Norges voted with bulk of resolutions and did not side with BHP and co.
8. Lasso signs major trade deal with Chinese
9. Millions of shares shorted for ARB reasons etc and due to be unwound or closed out post merger or poss before end of Jan.

What's not to like... stop the droning and Mather this and CGP that.... we are one company now with a sensible team involved looking to get long standing shareholders the best return possible.

Cheer up!

That's almost a near perfect vote. Splendid stuff. Does this mean that we have next to zero in cap shareholder cash payouts? If true, that's great news and may mean we can hold onto those 6% CGP/SOLG shares and stick them into treasury until needed ... if at all.

There was an article posted recently regarding Ecuador and various chinese companies getting a bad name for x y and z. SOLG have worked very hard over the years to build a SOLG brand which is respected by the communities. That's worth its weight in gold alone.

You certainly wouldn't want to change that brand name anytime soon. Should the chinese takeover ENSA only, then I think we could see SOLG/ENSA as the name which will aid the chinese further down the line.

There has been some decent PR of late with the name ENSA rather than SOLG.... so I think all involved are aware of the potential value in associating ENSA with SOLG as a trusted part of the overall company.

Although on a smaller scale, Shanta gold did recently have interest declared and discussions kicked off which triggered takeover rules announcement. Two of the bidders or interested parties were chinese. In the end nothing came of it, but the point here is that the chinese do not seem bothered one bit about making bids first. That all said, SOLG is different in that should an offer be tabled then bulk of people out there (chinese included) expect to see BHP (and or NCM) put up a counter bid or make the transaction a tricky one. FWIIW, I think BHP have made their mind up and gone with Oz Minerals. I don't think they will get into a counter bid foray with the chinese but I do think they will push them to pay fair price.

After what's transpired of late with Lasso et al, I think the chinese are favourites. But I wouldn't rule out Anglo American or Fortesque.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/995784/shanta-gold-says-yintai-bid-approach-is-for-cash-995784.html

At end of the day, it's win win for the US and the globe as a whole if we see more mines like Alpala fast tracked into production. There is a massive copper shortage around the corner and the electrification of cars in particular is going to be held up through lack of supplies not unlike the chip manufacturers of today post covid. The US has been over protective of it's own car industry and gas guzzlers to care too much but by lowering gas demand/oil etc in future they will be removing a lot of money from Putin and Middle East.... hence you'd think they would be keen to get motoring with copper supplies. South America is a bit of a hot bed at the moment so if Ecuador were to emerge as global mine / resources exporter then it might help the US put the likes of Chile and Peru back in their box. Lots of pros and cons. The next few years should see massive infrastructure spend as per Biden's trillion dollar bill and Chinese promises to build their way out of economic gloom. All points to the likes of Alpala/ENSA being in high demand. But this sad old casino stock market is more keen on playing with invented resources like Bitcoin et al. In this new world it's far easier to imitate and replicate the original than try and discover it. A Fake world in every way with people paying £1000's for branded t-shirt that is made form same cotton as a £2 t-shirt or examples of paying £177m (per YEAR) for a geriatric footballer!! Hard to make sense of it these days.

The chinese are fast becoming Lasso's best friends. Personally speaking, I think Lasso would be wise to keep 'competitive' bidding alive and well as it's the one thing that will keep the chinese grounded and paying fair price rather than getting everything on cheap.

BHP might not get a look in at all if Lasso has already 'leveraged' Alpala in some deal or another. Remember.... SOLG are just the licence holder and Ecuador own Alpala and it's their say so / red tape that will either sanction development or make the operators life a misery. We are just shareholders and many of us won't be here in 20 years time but Ecuador's mining future and future partners will be so important to understand the bigger picture here. I guess it comes down to... does Lasso want international mining companies like BHP, Anglo and others or does he want a heavily weighted chinese cartel with sprinkles of minor international company interest or both and is the latter possible??