Member Info for Fortissimo

I know it's tricky buying large volumes in open market but a few million shares here and there can add up and is more than possible.

In theory... if the Chinese took 16p placing, then I'm sure they are more than delighted to be able to pick up some in the 13's. Thus far, volume suggests they are none too bothered as I can't see any major buying going on juts a few over stretched or lover leveraged retail players getting squeezed as it drifts down.

Same could be said for Norges. Big buyers in the late 20's and early 30's yet seemingly sitting on their hands now.

Weird old game isn't it?

There many events and requirements pulling at various ends of the SOLG management team. Whether it be tidying up the loose ends of the Accounst pre merger or not, one thing is becoming very clear.... we are currently in negotiations with Lasso and Ecuador mining team with regard to moving from exploration terms to exploitation terms on our ENSA licence. This is key as it moves us into the next phase which I believe carries commitments on both sides. Those commitments must be backed up eg... funding in place. We may have ticked the box near term with the $50m raise but if timelines start to kick in on the mine life from Dec 2023, then we need to have ENSA partnered or sold before then or around then for sure.

Fast and smart is not just a selfish CGP mantra for the greedy ones. It's about moving ENSA/Alpala forward without losing crucial mine life and profit years.

Exploitation negotiations were noted in recent MD&A.

Ironically .... for SOLG to progress these discussions with lasso and team (as of now) they must already have a credible partner or finance plan lined up. Otherwise, you can imagine the sit down discussion starting with.... so guys before we help with some taxes in early phase etc etc just remind us how you are going to fund this $3bln??

FWIIW, I think CGP/SOLG have been working hard behind the scenes since July 2022 so well advanced. Like true SOLG... shareholders are being updated 3 or 4 months behind... but what's new!

Perhaps they plan to jv/partner on some those 60 licence blocks so can't include them at present until merger sorted and jv deals then done??

DM, the problem at present is that the market isn't valuing ENSA at anywhere near the levels it should be. Thus we have a situation whereby we have taken an almost 25% hit in dilution terms but without the nice benefit of 15% ENSA being factored into share price.

On the whole I am surprised by some investors on here you like to grumble regularly. Many were annoyed that SOLG had stopped Exploration. Today's news confirms the plans to explore in Ecuador and get Australian assets set up / prep'd for might be a JV deal in future.

$11m should see quite a few decent holes in Rio and a few others. That's some decent upside opportunities to come while we no doubt continue with partner or sale talks in background with interested parties post SR. Latter is my assumption.

I expect we might hear more on Bramados once the merger has concluded as very much a CGP story but that asset is doing ok and think CGP are carried for bulk of exploration costs. I get a feeling that they might be looking to streamline the business ahead of full sale hence why exploring outside of Ecuador makes sense as any buyer going for ENSA and entire folio might want a 100% Ecuador business with no loose ends. That said, you never know... they might sell their stake in Bramados and tidy that side of things up although doubt it. Not sure on Chile. Do NCM have any further iv's or options on CGP's assets or was the last relinquishment the last? Newmont might be interested in assets down under like Solomon Islands blocks.

Are the Aussie assets worth bunging $4m at? Perhaps a last throw of the dice on those parts before they decide to hive them off (or not) to some entity owned by Maxit lol!

I can understand the sentiment in so much that a decent grade strike in Ecuador normally sees the sp fall lol!... but a poor or average strike in Oz seems to have pi's chirping and sp's racing away.

I like their logic!

Well, some interesting bits in the report especially the exploration plans for the next 6 months which included $11m for Ecuador and $4m for Australia!!!!

Struth mate... just when you thought Ecuador had opportunities galore.... they go back to Oz to dig some red dirt.

So almost half of the exploration budget for the next 6 months is in Australia!

Other than that, all looks like it's going as planned and potentially JV/partner deals being deployed on other Ecuador licence blocks in future which fits with the CGP mentality.

Something else is cooking for sure. I did like the one employee in Switzerland! Need someone there to keep that subsidiary alive.

The MD&A is mainly for events up to 31st Dec 2022 so you're not going to get an SR update through that nor a detailed update on Merger. But there's enough there to let you know all is moving as per last RNS releases.

Looks like the drill bit will be turning in Ecuador and down under mate!

Ortherncopper

Who exactly is s'getting concerned'? Who's silent? Yes they are 2 weeks over the end of Jan dat that they said 'around that time' but seriously.... the rest is just conjecture and baseless. SOLG are not silent. But moreover my view would be that they need ducks in order before they can announce a series of news releases. So if the red tape / prospectus / court approval process is taking longer than expected sobeit... but the rest of the business news is likely on hold until that first domino is completed.

As for SOLG going silent... there's not much they can do or say until merger dusted.

I can understand some pi's getting frustrated but 2 weeks or even a month in delays on merger deals is not rare by any means. Chill.

"Nick has always said that if you sell Cascabel there would be Ecuador taxes to pay..."

Taxes get changed all the time. They normally go up but in countries like Ecuador keen to attract new business partners and get mines moving which require $3bln Capex... ermmm they tend to change the rules or offer benefits. Recently some licence blocks in the south have had better financial terms agreed I believe.

What Nick says 2 or 3 years ago may well be right but things change and often with SOLG! Maxit, Mather et al have had more than enough time to sort their offshore accounts out so on a personal tax level...alot is manageable for those that are motivated. PI's have chance to offload into ISA (part or all based on balances).

The CGP guys want cash.... we know that. If that costs 10% or even 20% tax I think they'd be happy. Fairly easy for Maxit to factor some of that into the offer price talks/deals and Lasso to then give some back through greater Capex offsets/reduction in early phase Ecuador royalties. Lasso just wants it built ... and super majors want early profit pivot points not long term ones.

Agree DM but I think they need to test drill the mine shaft and prove theory for first part Capex works before they can then bolt on cave 2 and 3. It's there for the next man (as they say) but no way a buyer will be paying for that. Always been about IRR due to self funding concept but if the latter is no longer required then they may as well have gone for a model better suited to a major or national which would have involved probably double the Capex and NAV closer to £10bln. Scale is where Alpala comes into its own as world class metal mix but SOLG had to deliver a PFS that matched the prospect of self funding.

Worth noting that the Chinese have started off 'small' with prospects in the south based on fit return of capital and then looking to scale up as time ticks along. Fortunately. SOLG have Tandy as bolt on and that present s a similar path scenario. You never know... the first deal that gets a bid war going could be the capital injection (JV) that see's Tandy move to production well before Alpala/block cave. Throw in Porvenir producing as well (early doors) in the south and a decent chunk of Capex could be covered off with the smaller faster return easy to mine projects. I guess we'll find out soon but defo expecting SOLG to split ENSA off or sell it followed by a retention of folio and renewed exploration verve to commence pretty soon. The old girl could be flavour of 2023 if we get ENSA deal executed alongside a couple of very nice long high grade holes on Rio or another prospect.

davethehorse,

If you assume any monetisation event will involve ENSA 100% then share price is irrelevant, placing levels irrelevant... all irrelevant. What is relevant is how much of that NAV (£4.3m ish) as per PFS is going to be paid by Chinese or another part. So the question should be a simple one here for investors.... what discount to NAV is likely and acceptable and gives the next man something for the carried risk going forwards??

Some say 40% NAV? Some say 50% NAV. What's left to derisk on the asset?? Block cave questions will not be comprehensibly answered for 2 years+ and carries risk.

40% NAV equates to £1.7bln. Throw on £200m or £300m for rest of folio Porvenir and some cash balance included (£40m?) and you have close to £2bln split by 3bln shares (thereabouts + some options) and bingo.... equates to 66p a share.

56p for ENSA. 10p for rest of folio.

Remember the previous recent highs of 42p were gained without a bid or monetisation event (apart from royalties).

So if we return to 30p levels (on par with the old 42p) then it's more than possible to see this double again on a winning bid situation. When we were 42p most thought it would move 50% higher on a bid from there.

My conclusion would be that anything in the 30's would be viewed by many as plausible but low ball. Anything in the 40's more acceptable but anything in the 50's and 60's would required an auction or bid process with multiple parties interested. The latter is all down to Maxit and the markets appetite for a long term Capex heavy project in a fledging mining nation like Ecuador.

I think 40% to NAV might be the best we can hope for and the biggest shame of it all is that the PFS is basically covering just 20% of the potential mine due to SOLG's desire to limit Capex in favour of bolstering the IRR.

IMHO, the best case scenario for shareholders is to sell ENSA, pocket cash. Hand it back to shareholders. And then drill baby drill on the rest of the folio through equity raises and placings and hope we find another Alpala or two.

FWIIW, I think investors should look at the market cap and not the share price, then compare to times of old.

The market has a history of keeping market caps in check.

As an example, SOLG's market cap when it tested 42p highs seen last year (lot of people were happy and clapping with joy then) was just shy of £900m based 2.3bln shares and on 85% ENSA.

When the sp dropped back to 25p which acted as the base level for sometime (call it the comfortable range... not over priced and not under priced etc) the market cap was £570m.

Recently we've seen 14p/15p levels which are the lowest for a long time and many think it reflects a poor sad state of affairs at SOLG towers. Market cap today at 14.5p ish is £335m. However (here's the fun part or not)... post merger share issue (and recent fund raiser) to CGP 14.5p x approx 3bln shares = £435m cap. So when everyone was happy clapping at 42p (£900m) are we to assume all will be happy clapping at 30.5p (£900m)?

Of course we have an extra 15% ENSA in the bank but if the 85% is priced at a major discount eg 10% NAV (as it is now) then 10% of CGP's 15% ENSA stake is a pony £65m! That's ridiculous, but then so is the 8% NAV discount. However, if you take the £30m raised through Chinese at around 16p then in value terms, the chinese have acquired 6% of ENSA at a 11% of NAV.

In a nut shell, market cap matters to the stock market. So as an example, at 19p, SOLG is £570m market cap post merger. That's essentially 25p levels of old when most were non plussed and waiting for events to unfold. So at 16p or 17p seen in recent weeks that's just 10% off those levels... hence there really should be no fear of doom and gloom. No fears that things are on rocky shores. It's just the product of hefty dilution vs a market that is unwilling to price in the added 15% ENSA correctly or even get close to proper value for the NAV which should be 20% minimum based on the derisked advancements of Alpala.

Sorry for long winded post... but reality dawns... an appropriate and fair discount to NAV will only take place once a monetisation event or partner deal or full asset sale has been presented to the market. Until then... the sp is largely irrelevant but the 'animal' is actually not that far off what it used to be. In fact, I'd argue with $80m+ in bank, 100% ENSA sorted and AGM resolutions flexibility granted.... SOLG is in much better shape. Enjoy your weekends.

Volume much weaker after yesterday's 11m. With news expected soon on the merger completion - you might be seeing the ARB boys going for it in the hope they stretch out some and get some forced sellers. Remember they have 20mil of shorts in play I believe from around 17p/18p levels. Not much coin in it for them with price in the 16's hence the recent push down.

If they can deploy minor amount of selling to depress price then their goal is made much easier. Can't blame them for trying and SOLG's or Maxit's stretched out merge process handing it to them on a plate.

If they are ex CGP holders then they'll comfortably get their 20m shares at 16p so no brainer. Anything sub 16p where they can get some suckers or forced sellers is a bonus.

News next week I believe. No point in dropping RNS's into market on a Friday.

No idea why some think bad news likely? They look about 2 weeks over the end of Jan prediction for merger completion. No major delay there.

If I were SOLG/CGP... I would be looking to get a full guide to plans for this year out in the market so that it matches the prospectus and new SOLG investors (those taking the 550m shares for CGP stock) know whether to hold that stock or sell it. What you don't want to do is issue 550m shares and basically give those holders no reason to HOLD as that's just going to tank the sp with selling pressure.

You want those 550m shares to be tightly held and if anything you want new buyers to come flooding in.

So an update on SR, plans for some regional exploration , number of target blocks and holes drilling campaign etc and off we go....!

Monte - yes agree to some extent but when you throw in Lasso and recent Chinese Trade deal.... I think it has more importance than your usual speculative small cap punts.

They are involved heavily in Ecuador right now.

They bought at 32p and more recently at 16p levels through placings. Why wouldn't they mop up some stock in the 14's?? Unless of course their hands are tied due to insider knowledge?

The share price is now in a zone whereby some on sidelines might start to get their tackle oot. If you're not a buyer at 14's then I guess you'll never be a buyer.

I wouldn't be bothered about insiders, but I am surprised that the likes of Norges, Blackrock et al have not been buying into recent dips. They know that dilution events have passed. They know the likely intended SR outcome. So why would Norges buy close to 3%+ at averages near 30p and then sit on their hands when price has halved?

Mind boggles. The ARB boys are having a free run at this and not being met with much resistance.

Minor volumes in grand scheme of things but the drip drip will concern some CGP holders as they are soon to swap CGP shares for SOLG and liquidity doesn't look great here across the pond with buyers absent.

Think SOLG will need to issue an update on the SR before issuing those 550m shares. They need 'new' holders to be holders and not sellers. Perhaps the reason for the slight delays??

Some CGP holders will be seller regardless of what SOLG says as they have been waiting for a liquidity event which has not been possible on CGP TSX.

Chinese bought a wedge at 32p and more gently at 16p. Let's hope their investment skill doesn't repeat itself or else we'll be at 8p soon.

Volume is pony and that's the good news on this latest drift into the 14's.If volume was larger then I might raise an eye lid.

Next week will come. That's a fact. I can't state news will come 'as a fact' but I'm pretty sure of it. That's all I can say. I've bought more stock recently and happy to add on weakness or as opportunities present themselves. Only one way CGP holders are going to get their payday and that's through a major monetisation event that is related to SOLG shares. Need to get those shares issued first before the SOLG BoD's go wax lyrical.

Red... I think they got fees paid for sorting the finance and royalty but the merger deal has yet to close so they won't get paid until that is done and dusted.

I'm presuming the $4.3m relates directly to the merger costs involved.

News next week.

Chinese new year also ended and all back to work.

Should be feeling the love again around 14th!