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Complete market disinterest indeed.

But we do have $80m+ in cash in the coffers so at least the market doesn't have to worry about that lol! The irony is, the share price was higher when we didn't have any funding secured at all!

The ARB boys have this by the small and curlies and unfortunately I have a hunch Maxit don't care too much about it. Mmm.

At end of the day... the drip drip and getting pi's impatient and pi55ed off all works in favour of Maxit looking good when they deliver a 30p offer by Chinese lol! The headlines will read 100% above last trading price blah blah blah.

But it doesn't matter much as that 30p will be the starter gun and should not end there. But first you have to get the maddening crowd ready and ready to accept a low ball as being a result!

What's the betting merger concludes next week and Maxit get their $4.3m in fees paid in shares at 14p lol!

News next week from what I gather. So if true then only a few days over their end of Jan prediction.

DBW, FWIIW, I think the 6% stake was an incentive and insurance policy for Chinese... that's all.

It enables them to benefit if they Bid say 45p+ a share for whole of SOLG and then get counter bid from BHP that comes in at 55p etc and they then back out. They still make a nice chunk of money out of that and likely via royalty deal (assuming it's them too but via Maxit Osisko etc).

These minor stakes just help with engagement. Without them, it's a lot harder to get the ball rolling. You want it to feel like a win win situation if possible.

Ultimately, Lasso has leaned toward Chinese so it's just a question now (IMHO) of how Maxit can get a competitive arena going for Alpala as that's the only way to get top dollar. If the chinese know they are the only real interested party, then it's going to be bottom dollar stuff. Needs multiple interested parties and if SOLG announce that SR is done and they have exactly that interested in the asset, then away we go!

Should read £2.4bln (not £3bln)

Ortherncopper,

You keep referencing 16p like it matters? It doesn't. On pre dilution basis it was more like 19.5p which is just shy of the last placing at 21p levels. The Chinese knew that plans for 550m shares were coming to market. So it wasn't a true 'value' event in that context and SOLG's backs were against the door as well all know post Darryl's efforts on failed fund raiser.

Try and focus on the asset value and someone paying fair price. That's how most Tier 1 assets are sold. The share price will then reflect that price/value number based on shares in issue.

Hence Irwin most likely thought that post merger, 78p or 80p would require a bid of almost £3bln for 100% ENSA or SOLG.

Pre dilution, and 85% ENSA, the 78p to 80p value mentioned by Darryl and a number of brokers was based on 2.3bln shares. So that's about £1.9bln.

So now perhaps you can see why Irwin was suggesting ideas of 80p+ was for the birds.

You seem fixated on the share price and you really need to forget about that when thinking about sales/takeovers.

Noront was 23cents pre offer talks. It went for 110cents. That was based on the asset value and shows how woeful the market was at valuing this in the first place.

See the irrelevance in your approach??

SharketMare,

I'm afraid you are using rose tinted glasses on GGP. Don't get me wrong... the wyloo deal certainly saved the day and kept GGP alive as NCM were going to crush them into almost nothing. But that said, the Wyloo deal comes in at 8p/9p levels. It's very likely that Wyloo will end up with 20% or 25%+ soon. I'm afraid to break it to you.... but there's a reason why GGP's sp is where it is and that's because Wyloo will likely takeover the same role as NCM in near future. Which means GGP will be diluted again and again. All profits coming to GGP in the future will likely be drained by the CAPEX required to maintain their 30% stake especially if assuming you are ramping things up. The problem for GGP awaits around the corner.... and if you think there is a clear path to being a producer.... then you best re examine what lies ahead.

SharketMare, I fully understand GGP and the story that has unfolded.

SOLG management and the way they have retained 100% of the asset is pretty rare these days. It's not easy and yes they could have done things better. But seriously.... the GGP story, management and the way things have progressed with GGP down to just 30% interest and shareholders been diluted to oblivion (recent wyloo included) is far from a success story. It's a classic example of how companies like NCM work their magic on the little guy. Fortunately SOLG have management with some balls and have put NCM and BHP back in their box.

Anyway... apples and pears... GGP don't have anything near a tier 1 world class asset and SOLG do and that's why getting royalty deals done so far ahead of the production plans has been possible.

GGP are a classic example of how the little guys gets squeezed out of things. CGP and SOLG are determined to make sure it doesn't happen to us.

Ortherncopper, not sure I would call GGP a leading example of great management and certainly they are no better than SOLG if not much worse imho.

38p down to 7.3p recently and that's your idea of classy management? You certainly know how to pick them! On top of that, they started with 100% Hav and now have 30% and debt as well. Had GGP management acted sooner in the cycle - GGP shareholders would be much richer. Same can be said of SOLG but what set them apart is the $150m raised via Royalty streams. That really shows the class of the asset and the class of the management to side step BHP et all clutches and minimise shareholder dilution.

Several things have changed with regards the size of the asset especially in terms of ownership. At 40p, SOLG were valued on 85% of ENSA and folio plus cash/ inc debt for royalty. Use 2.2bln shares for reference to that 40p.

Now, we have 100% ENSA, additional royalty and similar cash balance inc folio. Shares in issue soon to be close to 3 bln.

The 40p you talk about (nothing changed scenario) equated to around £900m market cap. Post merger, 30p or thereabouts will amount to the same reference point as your 40p.

However... we do have 15% more of ENSA. So that's your cream on top which needs adding in along with the premium for holding a 100% owned tier 1 asset - eg less fragmented and just how buyers / partners like it.

So I guess the question you should be asking is whether that 15% ENSA stake is worth that missing £300m as 40p post merger will be £1.2bln market cap.

I know what you mean but 1 week or 2 is hardly a drama. Like I said a few days ago, the cynic in me thinks that the money men involved with those extra placed shares (not the chinese ones) might want a bit more time to play with SOLG's LSE and TSX share price. Also as addinct highlighted yesterday, Maxit do get paid $4m+ in fees so one would guess they will be issued shares. Add these to those they apparently acquired in the placing and you have an insider there that could in theory forward sell stock knowing they have it coming in fees at lower price.

Let's say when the price was 18.5p recently, Maxit sold (short) 5m or poss 10m shares over several days. They know they are getting those 10m shares handed to them at 16p or knowing SOLG, they'll probably get them at 15p lol! It's easy money isn't it.

What I am puzzled by is the fact that we have Maxit as advisers and very much insiders (due to certain holders as well) and yet they are issuing shares effectively to themselves.

Like I said... any stretched out process in the merger no doubt helps some with fees and CGP's cash pile (which was XX back in October) is what now??

Anyway... lesser of two evils as they say. Would you feel safer with SOLG and BHP holding the keys?? Nope!

People often get most frustrated and impatient just before an event actually unfolds. What's the rush? What's the urgency?

They said the expected things to wrap up around end of Jan. We are just 1 week over !

1 week!

Chill .

AgArCu, I don't think the Mail on Sunday article was saying a takeover was wide of the mark at all. I think you've jumped to conclusions there.

The key point I think you've hot on is this "But some senior industry bigwigs reckon this is wide of the mark, noting it will take years before SolGold gets its prize project off the ground. The long wait could be enough to put off any possible buyer. " END.

That line makes little sense to me as we all know there's no way SOLG are financing this to production. So the takeover rumour is based around the 'reality' that SOLG will sell out early in the stage to a deeper pocketed partner / super major who knows how to get these projects producing and has the cash to do so. In that context, the rest of the 'wide of the mark' stuff is nonsense and not relevant. The whole point is... it's a new country regional play huge opportunity for a super major and they don't get involved in those based on a short period of time. They think about it as a 20 to 30 year investment phase. Like that seen in Peru, Brazil and so on.

There's a reason why Gina R (indirectly), Franco, Chinese, BHP, NCM, Norges et al are all invested in SOLG. They know how great the opportunity is. It's not going to take years... it's going to take months or weeks before that Strategic Review reveals the game plan.

Article below... "There are some takeover rumours that are practically evergreen, with chatter resurfacing whenever the market goes a bit quiet. One of these involves mining behemoth BHP and retail investor favourite SolGold, which is working on a copper and gold mine in Ecuador. BHP first invested in SolGold in 2018 and has more than doubled its initial stake, making it one of its biggest shareholders. The City rumour mill reckons a takeover of the South American miner could emerge later this year – though this is the same mill that said it would happen in 2021 and 2022. But some senior industry bigwigs reckon this is wide of the mark, noting it will take years before SolGold gets its prize project off the ground. The long wait could be enough to put off any possible buyer. One thing is certain. As long as BHP sits on its investment, the speculation will keep churning.

Things happen fast when events unfold. GGP a good example recently. Trading at 7.3p and near multi year lows, poor news flow and impatient investors squabbling away etc etc etc. Then within 48 hours it's trading near 9p or 30% up.

It's been pretty clear for a while now that there are some very patient people sitting on the sidelines here and wanting to get back in but see no rush. That bodes well as when the 'rush' arrives, the moves higher will be strong with 15%+ or 20%+ gains on the day. We've seen it before on past years, SOLG moves like Usain Bolt (used to) when the time is right and equally that's up and down (with speed!). SP has gone from 16p levels to test 42p levels on two (or three?) occasions over last 3 years. It's what this stock does. It languishes around in the teens or early 20's when the paint is drying. But when there's action... there's proper action.

• Funding sorted - tick
• SR underway - tick
• AGM resolutions sorted - tick
• Chinese showing interest - tick
• Market recovery from inflation woes - tick (FTSE100 hit an all time high last week!)
* M&A kicking off
• Metal Prices looking lively
• Copper shortage looming around corner
• US trillion dollar infrastructure bill passed.
• Chinese said to do the same - build their way back to growth through infrastructure spending

It's all good. Just need the merger to conclude and ARB boys to feck off. Only minor concern is that when 550m shares hit the market will some be cashing in sub 16p?? One would hope not but liquidity (better sellers market) is what many hemmed in CGP holders (weak liquidity) have been waiting a long time for.

Should add, that so far we've seen BHP move for Oz Minerals which are very similar to SOLG with a decent wedge of gold but also Copper. Newmont clearly want gold and have moved for NCM. BHP were met with zero resistance or counter bids from competitors. Same could unfold for NCM.

I don't think Newmont will let Haverion go should they acquire NCM but equally I don't expect Wyloo/FMG to rollover either and think they really want the entire asset, hence why GGP seems to have popped by over 30% in just 2 days.

SOLG's time will come and it's hotting up now although the share price clearly hindered by ARB and slow execution of merger. The latter really should have been dusted by now. No idea why they are struggling to get a prospectus out... it's basic stuff. Like I said a few days ago, per haps CGP guys need more time to clean up their desks and run up a few lunch bills before turning off the CGP lights.

According to Reuters Barrick have ruled themselves out of buying NCM. This is a nice little tester as I think it shows the direction Barrick are more interested in.... and it's clearly not gold. But I suspect it's more likely to be copper!

Bodes well.

They could just sit it out and wait. But what happens Sid, when the chines or Gina H and co start nibbling chunks as they are already doing right now... indirectly and more recently with the chinese... very directly.

You can wait 2 years if you like but you'll likely be bidding for licence blocks (grass root) in the next cadestre as everything else in Ecuador will have gone.

NCM has GOLD. It doesn't have a huge amount for copper. Any buyer of ENSA or SOLG will be someone keen to build copper reserves which lets face it... it the metal of today and tomorrow and sought after by nearly every mining major out there.

Should add that it's about 6 months since BHP bid for OZ Minerals so clearly these deals take long time to complete.

I would expect any NCM deal (when agreed) to see a final completion date of around July/August!

Wasn't long ago that Oz Minerals and NCM were common names / favourable stocks with investors and remarkable to think both names could be gone in next few months.

I can't see Newmont's $24 offer winning but if they get up to the recent highs seen on NCM a year or two ago then investors might bite. So $31 to $36 region.

$25bln to $30bln not small fry stuff and puts into context the rather minor $9bln Oz minerals BHP deal!

Sector should see renewed interest now Metals prices look more in vogue and M&A kicking off. Looks like 2023 will be the year!

If Newmont succeed and seek offload various assets like 10% stake in SOLG, then selling to GinaH would be a further snub to their Aussie competitors. Could get interesting for GGP too as new owners might be happy to sell out to FMG/Wyloo or might be interested in trying to acquire the lot.

If BHP were to buy Newcrest, then it would move them to around 20% stake in SOLG. That might affect how other interested parties think about bidding and clearly strengthens BHP's position after being pegged back over last few months due to equity issues and merger dilution. Small details and certainly not crucial to NCM bid (I think most savvy folk would know that) but it can change the dynamics. For instance, NCM and BHP appear to have voted together in the past. What if FMG took NCM over and then suddenly BHP have even fewer friends where SOLG are concerned.

The main point to take from the NCM buyout talks is M&A is alive again. OZ minerals last year... NCM this year and possibly big shift coming across all mid to larger size miners as they seek to replenish reserves and please shareholders through strong profit growth and divi's.

If you are looking to sell a Tier 1 asset then you want the market backdrop to be one of buoyant M&A...