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All kicking off now. Whoever gets Newcrest will also get their 10%+ interest in SOLG.

Big M&A moves starting to unfold imho ahead of a fine run for Gold and Copper and other PM's.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/newcrest-mining-digs-in-for-m-and-a-talks-calls-in-advisers-20230205-p5chyr

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-11713193/amp/CITY-WHISPERS-Miner-SolGold-target-rich-seam-rumour.html

Newspaper rumours always welcome and often the precursor to step change in share price and sentiment.

Soon be time to fire up the Quattro. Fast and smart although in the wider context it's been quite a drag.

Newcrest situation looks interesting too.

Happy Sunday all.

DM, good posts. Aside from points you highlight, it really does demonstrate the benefits of being a mining 'producer'. Not many in Ecuador and bulk of them (on decent scale) are in the south where infrastructure is already in place (built by chinese I suspect!) and as a provence it I looking to expand. That's why SOLG have made recent murmurings about Warintza and our exploration targets that are close by or possible extensions. Add to this, Porvenir is within all infrastructure. The irony is, the Chinese (who invested directly into Porvenir via Valuestone) may end up being more inclined to take on the SOLG spin off entity or invest heavily In it. My assumption there. But essentially ENSA goes to IPO or auction and SOLG then continues via deals with Chinese on remaining folio. Not much activity in the North apart from Alpala so all action mainly in the south.

This market is so asleep at the wheel it's mind boggling. Porvenir (on its own) likely worth our entire market cap not to the mention the $85m+ on cash balance (prob a bit less now!).

ENSA proven and worth a lot of money but the rest of the folio is worth possibly more if we can monetise it swiftly rather than explore for a decade again.

Just a hunch but after seeing recent political events like the recent Lasso/Chinese trade deal tie up and a few other important debt/IMF movements, I think you are beginning to see Lasso asserting some pressure. And who can blame him! SOLG have a responsibility to shareholders but also to the people of Ecuador to get this asset moving forward. Lasso will be in a pre election year when 2024 arrives so he'll want very positive headlines going into Feb 2025.

Certainly feels like the Chinese are in pole position and that Lasso's face to face with BHP last summer was unproductive. That will teach BHP to play hardball.

https://www.news360.es/ireland/2022/12/20/lasso-leaves-the-door-open-to-a-possible-candidacy-for-the-2025-elections-in-ecuador/

Delaying the merger completion and issue of shares is currently working very nicely for the ARB funds. Anyone might think that Maxit and co actually want to give them some more time lol!

I genuinely think the shorters (some will be CGP holders who forward sold) thought the markets were in for a rum time across Nov and Dec. But the market bounce back has caught many off guard. The doom mongers in the October wash out no where to be seen now. Most thought January would be dire. Feb worse.

I'll be frank. I'm not a fan of Maxit. I think they are the money men sort that think selling at 30p is a good deal if it means you can recycle that money into another venture before market bounce back properly in inflation dropping fast in H2.

Maxit sold out of SOLG at 25p levels to BHP some years ago. They couldn't sell out their CGP holding as interest and liquidity not there. The key benefit of holding SOLG shares rather than CGP shares is that there is a better market to sell into.

It comes as no surprise to see SOLG's volume soar post merger update especially when you factor in that every CGP share held is actually 15 SOLG shares in waiting.

At end of the day, it doesn't really matter what Maxit serve up whether 30p or 40p etc ... what matters is what BHP and NCM want out of it and whether counter bids follow.

Just need to get the ball rolling with the first bid.

And like someone said recently... the only way to cash in is via a proper 'payout' as if the value is in the share price (still trading) it will just get sold into as all those CGP holders seek to turn shares into cash.

So what's coming?? A special divi? Or will we see another Maxit style deal whereby the interested party buys Maxit's stake for XXp (like they did with BHP) and gives them a 20%+ stake in SOLG??

A special divi is not going to be very tax efficient to many and not welcomed imho. What's the alternatives?

A strategic review might reveal sale plans but what's the strategy on getting the best tax efficient pay out for shareholders? Not all are capable of forward selling stock and then buying it back in secret offshore accounts lol!

Perhaps the CGP directors/owners need a bit more time to run down their cash balance lol!

Did we get a guide on CGP's cash balance prior to merger RNS and more recently? Just a hunch but I reckon there won't be much left by the time they switch the CGP office lights off.

$150m for 1.5%??

$1.5bln for 15%

$10bln for 100%?

Less $5bln to $6bln ish in costs...

NETS about $4bln ish. That's just one licence block. So talk of 50p to 60p levels for ENSA about right now post merger dilution and 100% ENSA stake.

Rest of the folio inc Porvenir has to be worth at least 10p a share??

70p for the lot?

What does the recently royalty of $50m or the Franco $100m value SOLG's ENSA licence at?

The prospectus is a standard requirement ahead of issuing new shares on a sizeable scale or doing CB's etc. RCGL2 covered this off.

I think they would have needed to wait until 9th of Jan (merger approval) and also the Dec 22 AGM before getting the draft moving. Cash consideration and how many shares being issued could have been pencilled in and pen'd in upon confirmation. So all in all, yes they should have had the bulk of prospectus completed long ago awaiting the finer details before publishing, hence the fast and smart comment certainly lacking a bit on the basics! That said, they may well be dragging their feet in the hope that someone picks up the phone (no guesses there) or it could be the simple matter of chinese new year which runs for 15 days so ends on Feb 6th I believe.

Putting that all aside, the key event is actually the court hearing which officially sanctions it all. There will be some insiders fully aware of that court hearing date or if one has been set yet. Usually there is a court list of hearings published every week in advance so assuming it's Brisbane... should be easy to monitor if one is so inclined!

And just a reminder to some that 'works' on cascabel may well be ongoing but not via the drill bit. As per last update, land acquisitions were still outstanding and can become problematic as well as expensive. If a very key piece of land/acreage is proving difficult to acquire, then it really can be a problem. Any buyer (whether chinese or BHP et al) will want all the ENSA areas and loose ends sorted before making bids.

Other issues like tailings/water/roads/pipelines/environmental studies etc etc are all major planning events and cost big bucks. They can cause costly delays and big overruns in budgets if not sorted in advance.

Whilst I think BHP and NCM might well be out of the picture now, I can't see either of them just handing over their 10% stakes for a loss and letting the Chinese walkaway with it easily. I think BHP/NCM are averaged in nearer 30p levels. Norges about the same.

If it goes for sub 50p it would be a disappointment but would also need the above big players to just chuck their cards in easily. Can't see that happening.

Tier 1 assets rarely go cheap. They nearly always go for fair price/industry benchmark levels minus the usual risk/regional/political discounts.

The same old ill informed investors were saying the same thing on Noront last year. 23 cents and going no where fast and in need of finance and not looking too great with Wyloo controlling things. Within a couple of the months the price had doubled and then doubled again.

Today's share price has absolutely nothing to do with asset value or bid / auction situations.

There were many reasons in the past why the 'we are going to production' line was believable and much needed. Firstly, if you want top dollar for your asset then you need to make sure the buyers know you have options and are not facing an inevitable scenario whereby selling it is the only way forwards. So that's put that to bed.

Secondly, debt and finance was cheap as chips a few years ago but is now very expensive. I genuinely believe SOLG could have gone to production via deals with Franco for $1bln, Mitsui, Chinese... a number or interested parties. Very doable but our stake would have hd to reduce whether that be in % ownership of ENSA or in profit terms.

Lastly, there are timeframes with all developments and Ecuador/Lasso have rules and regs for moving from exploratory to developent phases. Once that happens, the economic viability of the asset becomes something obviously spread over the mining life. If the clock is ticking, you really don't want to waste another 3 years+ of potential revenue while you seek partners on finance. So all in all... plans do change as and when material changes occur in the market and with your licence terms. But make no mistake about it... Tier 1 assets like ENSA are world class and much needed and NEVER remain gathering dust for very long at all.

So now we are into 'Strategic Review' period, we have a debt market that is ugly and unwilling to take risk and we have super majors all needing to replenish reserves ahead of big copper shortage predicted for 2026 through to 2030.

China will have no problem taking ENSA on. BHP and others have shareholders to please and they might prefer 'proven' political opportunities rather than a maiden venture in Ecuador. I guess we'll find out soon but 'fast and smart' is what we've been told and after just 4 months, we already have finance sorted for 12months+, AGM resolutions sorted, major shareholders structure rejigged pro SOLG and of course merger almost dusted.

It's clear for all to see that the new SOLG/CGP team are announcing very little until that merger is completed. I expected once all done, then we'll start to see what's what. Now that zero capital is required for payment in shares on the merger, we have a decent wedge which could see us doing some exploration again over the next 6 months+ while buyer or partner talks continue or finalise.

Just had a look at their website.... my goodness... both look barley out of nappies. These guys should not be allowed to play with money unless it's

1. Monopoly money
2. Made from chocolate

Not sure who Massif Capital are but they to get out at CAD 3.2 means they sold post the news of the failed funding round in late July as CGP price was around 3.3cad for a while before dropping as low as 2.7cad in the October wash out. It's been around 4.1 cad on average basis for last few months.

So these numpties sold at the worst time possible and just shows you that being impatient costs you big time.

Amateurs.

It's just the ARB fund or funds doing their thing. Boring boring stuff.

I expect they'll all be rebalanced when new shares are issued in a week or so time if end of Jan still the target.

Thereafter, they will likely want to be NET longs as SOLG should be ready soon to release outcomes on Strategic Review and plans for exploration this year with targets named. Do not be surprised if you see SOLG suddenly adopting Bramados like it's of importance lol! I think CGP had some free carry on that but it was looking quite decent as per last update. Wonder whether SOLG will focus 2023 efforts in and round the Chinese assets based in the South lol!

Yes well aware.... it's a trait of late.... majors buying producers rather than large big Capex projects that take 10 years to turn a profit. They seem to want 'profits' in exchange for the cash outlay on a 3 year payback basis these days. Chinese are more long term visioned.

you best get a better sauce then.

brown or red

let me guess... 'red'?

Precisely my point... if they were blue chip quality in terms of market regs then they would have updated their SOLG TR1 after the Chinese equity issue dropped them through 13%.

But we got diddly squat didn't we. Same for NCM.

Very shabby for an apparent blue chip.

not sure what you're implying but timings wise.... you had SOLG and BHP talks going on around June/July - then you had what looks like BHP walking away and a failed funding round by SOLG.... then you have Oz Minerals BHP bid a couple of weeks later.

Looks pretty clear to me what happened!

BHP were always going to vote and show they are not happy. I think the fact that both NCM and BHP did not issue the required (decorum under market rules) TR1's shows they are seriously hacked off. Their game plan has been ripped up and turned into shreds.

When CGP get their shares, BHP and NCM should drop below 10% but even then as they are outside UK, they are not 'forced' to declare holdings but like I said... it's the blue chip calibre thing to do. Sadly neither NCM or BHP look very 'blue chip' these days.

I said a while ago that I thought BHP had decided to move on OZ Minerals rather than SOLG. I genuinely think it was them or us and they tried a cheeky one with OZ minerals and succeeded. CGP and NM soon jumped into action when that Oz Minerals deal was announced almost as if they knew they had get ball rolling on an alternative. That all said, I don't think BHP will simply rollover for a Chinese cheap offer. I think they have a price in mind and if Chinese offer more then they will move aside but guess much depends on whether it's lock stock and barrel or whether BHP still retain interest (along with all of us) in the 60 odd licences not involved with ENSA.

BHP might decide to just roll the dice again and see what SOLG can deliver through rest of folio. If NMis so sure there are more Tier 1's there then why sweat it over ENSA? Let that one go and see what comes up next? Hence ENSA deal done then BHP might be happy with that.If deal done for all of SOLG, then that might see BHP come out fighting a bit more.

Many out there interested in Tier1 assets and Chinese are not the only ones looking good at the mo in Ecuador.