Member Info for Fortissimo

Monte,

Agreed - early days of Covid were very worrying were they not? Terrible situation and events never seen in many of our lifetimes. So let me get this right.... you're comparing that period to SOLG's woes now??

Perhaps it's a benchmark that might return you to some sanity?? SOLG were 11p/12p back then when the world was ending for us all 'apparently'. Yet here we are today, DOW jones just 10% off all time highs, FTSE still in the blue YoY (thereabouts) and yet SOLG just a few pence away from those dark days.

Completely unwarranted and unjustified. So focus on those differences. Focus on what's changed since 2020??

Based on some of the weak and weary posts from some of late, it would seem the 'pre offer' suppression period is working wonders. Any M&A expert must be laughing their socks off. All you have to do to get cheap stock off a pi is make them feel like the sp is in the dumps for a few months and then they'll snap your hand off for a decent premium exit.

During Covid this stock hit 12p. It then hit 41.5p a few months later, then returned back to the teens before pretty much rinse and repeating to 40's. Desperate cry baby posts from the usual during the teens and emphatic jubilation when into high 30's and early 40's.

Anyone that thinks that SOLG is not going back to 40's again needs their head checked. Anyone that thinks it will be sold for less needs their head checked. Tier 1 assets rarely go on the cheap.

If you can't stand the heat... then take a cold shower and find some other stock to cry about.

Get a grip.

"Share price could start to motor any day"

Possibly or it could just trickle along as if no interest there at all. I know I flag Noront Resources up as an example (too frequently according to some!) but it is a good example of BHP's tactics as is Oz Minerals. On both occasions, BHP struck or made their attack when the market was NOT expecting it and the target company's share prices were subdued or near yearly lows. It's standard M&A... you want to strike when the sp is low and not when the sp is high.

After the AGM, BHP will know what resolutions have passed (so get your vote sin now if you haven't already) and post the merger deal in early Jan, BHP will be heading toward sub 10% levels. Hang about further they could see 5% going to Mitsui just to make things more uncomfortable and bring in some more exploration cash. A consortium deal on SOLG or ENSA involving Codelco, Lundin and Chinese would REWARD those businesses and entities that are already contributing revenue to Ecuador through proven commercial mines in the south. The irony is... it may well go to these companies and then 4 years into development BHP buys in. At some point, there will be a situation of 'no-return' for BHP and that can't too far away or the alternative is to pay much bigger bucks in future but for lower risk exposure.

Still think the answer is Anglo American. Possible we could see Rio or Barrick getting involved too. And perhaps the surprise card in pack is Twiggy and Fortescue. I get feeling he is just waiting for BHP to make a move and is then going to force them to go higher. Just for the fun of it!

Orpherncopper,

I agree on exploration... would be great to get some drills turning and recently you had a few tweets from SOLG showing directors (new ones) looking at prospects identifying the next value enhancing prospect etc etc. But there's a few loose ends to tie up first with AGM in 10 days and Merger set to complete 2 weeks after that (approx). So just bear all that mind. 2022 was a lost year... in many ways but no point talking about plan A or Plan B and where's the exploration.... Need to get through the next month and then I would expect an indication from the Strategic Review to come before January is out.

I understand your frustration but seriously.... you need to calm it all down and decide what the next 6 months holds for your investment. If you are not confident, then I suggest you exit and find a stock you are confident in.

Orphencopper,

Don't be so naive. The market is not a barometer of whether an offer is coming or not. That's been proven by the Noront example. Noront was 23 cents prior to BHP's 55 cent offer and it ended up at 110 cents with Wyloo.

So does it matter if the market had zero confidence in Noront getting bought out days before BHP made an offer??

The market is more an indicator of 'stock trading' rather than asset value or M&A. SOLG could be back into the 16's today or tomorrow and into the 20's the following week. SOLG is trading pretty much inline with TA. Nothing unusual apart from the near 100m shares bought andsold over the last couple of weeks!!

See the bigger picture and stop equating everything to daily share price movements.

Let's hope that when the resolutions get passed that we don't suddenly get an award of cheap options to the directors. CGP have already rewarded themselves with options via CGP. SOLG di the same earlier this year. Next options remuneration round is due for May is it not?? Just a hunch, but I reckon we'll see that renumeration policy brought forward lol!

Fast and smart indeed.

Should add, remember Maxit are already invested through CGP so have nose in trough already. Adding another 23m shares at such low placing price just spanks of opportunism as Chinese would have had those shares.

I'm not sure I would call it an illustration of confidence but more an example of insiders getting cheap shares alongside the Chinese issue. I'm not sure Maxit or Scott and co can justify taking 25m shares at cheapest placing price in years when it's pretty clear to me the Chinese would happily have taken the full 180m instead of 155m.

Maxit are an insider and some might say it's good news that they are invested as it ensures they will get a good deal done. But let's be clear here, 17p placing is rock bottom stuff. It's not a 25p placing levels is it?? Maxit are supposed to be getting the best deal for us but by them taking the 25m shares just looks like they did the deal cheap with the chinese so they could gain too.

I said at the time of the placing RNS a few weeks ago that I bet the insiders are the ones that took the 25m shares. At the time they didn't have the balls to put their name against the RNS but I suspect 'insiders' regs forced their hand in the end.

It's ugly nest feathering by the money men behind this and I do wonder what else is going on with the CGP books. What was the CGP cash balance prior to the merger?? What will the cash balance be at time of merger?? Mmm. Anyway, apart from the ugly stuff, the funds are in, the Chinese are in and BHP and NCM are diluted down to sub 13% I believe.

AGM up next.

As many have mentioned already.... SOLG doing their best to keep BHP and NCM at bay after both caused major disruption and destabilisation of BoD's last year.

Want the same to happen again?? Then sit on your hands. Do nothing and suffer the consequences.

Or... if you want to send BHP and NCM a message (as well as Norges and Blackrock from what I gather) then get onto your brokers and get your votes in to support you company.

If if you have 1000 shares and think it's minor... still get your votes in. Every vote counts.

I firmly believe that with all resolutions past, SOLG will be in pole position when it comes to discussing asset sales or full sale of business.

Interesting to see the mm's move price back to 19.2p region which is where that 45m share block got printed a day or so ago. Might see another large one coming in toward close or in auction.

With seasonal volume low going into Dec 22nd AGM, could see the share price doing some nice moves if certain entities are keen to gain votes.

NO idea but we've had close to 100m shares traded over the last 2 or 3 weeks. Easily 3 or 4 times the norm.

Of course volumes should be higher based on 18p vs say 36p with the latter being the last time we saw decent volume via Norges and Blackrock... which I believe was them closing their instruments ahead of a rights issue that never happened lol!

That will teach them.

A few weeks yet before AGM votes to be added up so I'm expecting volume to be robust over next 2 weeks coming.

180m shares landing on Friday... we know that much.

Might be nothing of importance but perhaps the scrutiny (audit after audit) of SOLG accounts has more to do with the Merger or perhaps due diligence by a buyer?

Eitherway, the accounts have been given a thorough going over like no ever year before as far as I can see. Important to have all skeletons out of the cupboard before buyers feel happy to make a bid.

Tick tock.... 180m shares to hit Chinese share account before Friday. Can't wait to see the TR1's after that little bit of dilution. Then we'll see who's been tinkering around (subject to crossing disclosure thresholds etc etc).

China has been choking the commods market for a while now due to covid policy. Signs are now there that China are exiting that policy which means back to business for precious metals as the long predicted post covid infrastructure spend commences.

Maxit don't need to be too cute with the sale process but any buyers or interested parties will be acutely aware that the longer they leave it into 2023, the more likely PM's are rocketing.

I said a while ago that the window of opportunity was wide open for BHP to take a pop when the market was puking on inflation in late September and SOLG were looking weak with rest of market.

Fast forward to Q1/Q2 2023 and we could be looking at copper through 10,000pt London pricing.

Any buyer of Alpala will be aware that there's 5 years minimum (poss 3 to 4 if doing open pit Tandy first) before production so the sweet spot is disappearing for copper shortage pricing as likely to meet some saturation from 2030 onwards.

Note Norges 14.5m shares 'on loan'.

Mmmm... they had 3.9% a while ago I believe with some of that ' on loan'.

Tut tut Norges!!

I did say a while ago that I think Blackrock would have trouble unwinding their 'instruments' ahead of a possible offer. I also said that we would see some TR1's as those that have stock on loan need to sort it all out before they get diluted on Friday's Chinese 180m share issue.

Can't wait to see blackjacks TR1 lol!

As they say.... there's a way to force those out for the shadows pre AGM and Friday will see some holdings declarations of interest to SOLG BoD's.

Votes matter on the 22nd.

Glencore bullish on Copper

CEO Nagle sees copper hitting $15,000/tonne in London from $8400 currently.

No wonder the Chinese want us.

Now what does the PFS look like based on $15,000/tonne?? Anyone care to do the sums??

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2022-12-06-huge-copper-deficit-is-looming-says-glencore/

Predicting near doubling of copper prices

Glencore to buy SOLG???? Who knows but we are hot property guys!!!

Remember, CGP can loan the shares to SOLG or sell them pre merger as long as funds are retained and pooled into newly merged company.

Just a hunch, but I reckon it might be CGP selling 1.8% to Chinese or Mitsui.

Perhaps the cash raised will help placate TSX when it comes to potential cash offer for CGP holders (which some might take) rather than SOLG shares.

Worked pre agreed deal at 19.2p. Absolutely no idea who's decided to part with 45million SOLG shares at 19.2p.

But whoever picked them up must be delighted.

Distressed seller?? Seems we've had loads of stock available over last few weeks so could be the end of the sellers tail?

Chinese are due to get their stock on or before Friday, so 180m shares due to be issued soon.

Interesting times as ever at SOLG towers.

JV's are often great for Super majors but not for juniors. You are dealing with a Tier 1 world class mine which involved complicated deep block cave development. A super major would want to fast track the payback period and as such boost the DFS, likely double SOLG's projection. So if you JV 75%, you are left with 25% of a potential $5bln Capex plus any overruns. You have no way of financing it apart from debt and any delays will see the end of you. That's SXX territory.

Smart investors here understand that plan A (take it to production bluff) was required to extract plan B (asset sale) as it strengthens your negotiation position. But BHP didn't fall for it and SOLG failed to provide evidence that they could indeed finance it. So that game is over (although I gather some numbskulls on here still think it's going to production) and now it's time to prove the 'cab off the rank' strategy works. To do this... you have to sell the cab. Then the when you strike on Rio or another target in the future and hit some nice holes like Alpala, the market knows your strategy... it's proven profitability and it prices you with less 'orphan phase' discount and more at a premium pre asset sale.

The rinse and react or cab off the rank strategy is great but takes time, however, considering CGP and others were looking to sell Alpala 3 years ago when we had less than 2bln shares in issue, 45p then may well be better than 60p today.

"Fast and smart"... explore... define... derisk and then SELL!! SOLG can do this 5 times over during the next 12 years+ if the licence blocks really are full of PM's. You could get $1.5bln+ per one.

But first... lets get the first one sold off without any liabilities like funding 25% minority rates on a projects we have no control on the Capex.

Yes, and as noted in recent Aussie press the savvy ones like Gina Rinehart have been buying up land / blocks around ENSA as they know that will be of value in coming years. If we look at CGP and recent murmurings from departed CEO, an exploration campaign around Solaris' Warintza looks most likely to me. And then there's CGP's 12.5% stake in Sunstone's Bramaderos (part of SOLG post merger) and I do wonder whether Sunstone will be interested in doing some collaborative JV exploration on some other blocks. eg... SOLG give Sunstone a few blocks in exchange for a larger slice of Bramaderos?? Or similar with Solaris Resources. There's a fair amount can be done without involving Super Majors until blocks are more derisked.

I think the phrase 'fast and smart' as used by Sangha or our interim CEO, rings true.

Between Codelco, Chinese, Sunstone, Solaris, Lundin and a handful of others, there's lots of partnerships and 'smart' opportunities to pursue post ENSA sale.