Member Info for Fortissimo

Who knows how this is going to pan out but one thing is sure, if BHP genuinely want SOLG then they'll be sleeping less easy knowing that Jiangxi Copper are now in the mix.

I guess the two questions that really matter are as follows:

1. How much would Jiangxi Copper accept for their holdings
2. How much would BHP/NCM accept for their holdings

In my opinion, even if Jiangxi Copper went first and offered BHP (and rest of us) 45p a share, it's a no brainer for BHP to counter offer up 55p and push the Chinese to up their offer. It's because of this price level (45p to 55p) that I think any subsequent bid battle/tussles more likely to conclude in the 60's, 70's or 80's.

One thing I am sure about is that the Chinese are not going to get it on the cheap nor are BHP / NCM.

Post the AGM and merger, SOLG may well issue Jiangxi Copper another 5% (CGP SOLG shares post merger/dilution) but this time issued at mid 20's which would still put their average in region of 21p. At that point, BHP have serious problems. They are getting diluted down 9.5% or lower. Chinese will hold the same if not more. The sugar daddy going forwards will likely be Chinese and BHP will end up with 5% or lower. There's only so many times BHP can take a punch to the belly before they decide to nip it in the bud and bid... or they can just sit it out and watch the Chinese walk away with it.

We still don't know what Mitsui's involvement might be but I wouldn't rule them out for taking the CGP SOLG shares which might indicate to the Chinese that they too need to look over their shoulder. Get three in the ring for world class tier 1 asset like Cascabel and you have the best case scenario for majority of shareholders.

Looking forward to when the games commence which might be sooner than many think if BHP decide going early but reckon they want to see SOLG hold 100% ENSA first before they make a move which might explain the rather casual timeline since Oct 7th merger news.

At last... was beginning to worry TSX rules and regs approvals were going to drift on.

So AGM very much as you were last year apart from we have CGP 6.3% (reduced after share issue on Dec 9th) and Chinese holding of 6.3% You'd think that extra 12.6% would see them through. I imagine Maxit et al know exactly what they need vote wise.

covgaz, sometimes you can only play as well as the opposition allow and USA were far more energetic and dealt with majority of tricky situations brilliantly. A dull performance agreed, but credit goes to USA who hustled and bustled ENG into doing very little. I'd rather see that performance in the second group game than in last 16 or quarters! Get it out of the system.

I believe there is an accounting issue which treats selling the 'main asset' as a forced bid situation. In other words designed to avoid 'cherry picking' and leaving shareholders with the dross. There is no doubt that Cascabel is SOLG and SOLG is cascabel. Selling ENSA will come under tough scrutiny via LSE and TSX. However, like some have said, if the regionals and 60 odd licence blocks (or hopefully less) get put into one of the Subs and then that sub gets spun out, then that's fine. But you still end up with a scenario whereby SOLG has to be bought out rather than the asset being sold leaving just the SOLG shell. I'm not explaining it that well but accountants amongst us know the issues of selling your prime assets and not trigger takeover codes.

Also no point at this stage of events to try and make your voice heard as you'll be in danger of handcuffing SOLG's options into the future and handing the keys to BHP et al.

It's going to be a close imho as CGP and the Chinese will just about level out against NCM and BHP. It's then down to Mather and his crew to get it over the line.

I'm expecting a few TR1's to pop up when we get the new issue on Dec 9th. Dilution of approx 6.3% means BHP and NCM both drop below 13% level. A few others might be close to the thresholds. Blackrock might need to tidy up their 'instruments' lol or also face a TR1. Might explain why we've had over 40m to 50m share traded in last wee and a half.

Some might like the lack of transparency that comes with skirting around within the 1% thresholds, so will want to maintain that stance.

Doing an IPO of cascabel like Rio did with Turquoise hill is something I have banged on about for a while but as the new CFO lady (IPO expert) has departed I think that's been shelved.

I'm not sure selling Cascabel to the 'market' is the best way to realise shareholder value as markets rarely price the asset at fair value and always discount by at least 50% due to project risks. What you want for fair value is an auction process. It's not hard is it?? Just announce strategic review complete and cascabel sale auction process underway with number of interested parties which may result in an offer for the asset or could involved the business as a whole blah blah blah.

Spinning out 'some' of the regionals makes sense if the parties interested in Cascabel are not willing to pay a fair prospective price for the acreage. May as well package up some of the subs and put them into a new co... which is of course what we know Mather wants as he's the exploration fan and has said numerous times... exploration = growth.

Porvenir may or may not be of interest to Valuestone/chinese anymore after hole 1 proved to be the highlight. But you never know, they might be keen to explore around the warinza region and fund the new exploration company. It makes sense to retain the SOLG brand name for cascabel as the locals are familiar with it. Although having said that, I highlighted a few days ago that ENSA seems to be appearing more often in Ecuador PR activity. So perhaps SOLG retained for exploration as will help with regional permit issues while Cascabel gets put into new co called ENSA and that is then sold or IPO'd.

At end of the day, the strategic review is all about maximising shareholder value and opportunities. Cascabel is a heavy weight around our necks with huge Capex burdens and questions that remain unanswered that is and has held us back.

IMHO, if SOLG were to drill some regionals and strike big, then the market cap could easily return to where we are today which just shows you how undervalued it is considering Cascabel literally priced at zero. Of course it's perceived the other way around that regionals are priced at zero. But they are in effect mini cascabels waiting to happen.

We'll find out soon no doubt and would expect some news on strategic review before AGM is they want the votes!! Otherwise... it could be tight again! The merger certainly isn't going to happen until 2023 as it looks like TSX red tape holding them back.

Monte... Trump?

Monte, just use the filter button and Stackhigh is no more.
I have a hunch on the previous alias or the one he normally goes by and that was filtered long ago!

Anyway, we move on! Another high volume day for SOLG with seemingly two order books in play.

Stackhigh,

You've embarrassed yourself already so I wouldn't bother being concerned over being embarrassed when a monetisation event arrives 'before Dec 2023'.

You seem to have zero comprehension of how markets work. The metals market and the miners involved are not like OPEC lol! This isn't a cartel. It's who dares wins and has been for the last 70 years+.

So RIO, Anglo, Codelco, Barrick et all just happy to plod along at the same speed with no rush and they are all in cahoots1!

You couldn't make it up.... oh wait a minute... you just did!

Stack, no point bleating on about echo chambers as that's not going help you get out of this hole you've dug for yourself.

Answer the global issue of the impending copper shortage and explain to me why super majors are in no rush and can sit on their hands for 2 years. Also - please point out all the other Tier 1 assets that are sitting on the shelf awaiting a buyer.

Your trouble is that when you get found out for writing spurious nonsense, you just avoid and return to the mantra of echo chambers.

Like I said a day or so ago you're floundering and your responses weaker by the minute.

Goldman sachs forecasts a huge copper shortage over the horizon. BHP and many other miners are scrambling around trying to capture as much copper exposure / resource as they can. If they don't get enough of it, then they'll miss out on the copper boom that is coming.

To imply that there is 'no rush' is nonsense. Tier 1 projects are rare. They never ever end up being stuck on the shelf!

Your theory of 'no rush' or just sit on hands for 2 years is crazy. Cascabel is a 5 year build minimum! Sit on their hands for too long and they'll miss the boat on the copper boom in prices.

You remind me of someone who once told me there was no rush to buy a house. I ignored the tool and bought. He sat on his hands and rented. Two years later he was paying double. I was 100% up on my purchase.

Time is not always on the buyers side. You do seem a tad naive to broader market metrics. It's not all about SOLG... it's about bolstering resources for many super majors ahead of what is expected to be a heavy volume period for metals especially when China exits zero covid policy soon.

Stack, so let me get this right... you do want SOLG to sell but not before Dec 31st 23??

Is that right?

I'm confused as everyone that says this is going to be sold - you jump on them and say it's not going to happen.

If the sale comes after your Dec 31st prediction, you'll actually have to wait longer for your profits. So are we to assume that you are happy with that? Or would you rather a fast and smart sale which happen before your 'not before Dec 31st 23' line in the sand??

Stack

"Biased bluster from a guy who really wants this to sell." END

There you go again... bashing the guy that wants this to sell?? Ermmm... I thought you said you had 200k shares and were looking for a profit??

You sound like someone that has 200k loaned shares and you're looking to hand them back at a cheaper price lol!

Why don't you want SOLG to sell?? You are a strange one.

'This was step 2.9 in the 3 step process. What do you think the next step is?'

Next step will be 2.91, followed by 2.92....

If that merger is not done before Dec 22nd AGM, then step 2.91 will be a begging letter to pi's asking them to vote please please please.

Anyone ask Irwin why there was 25million shares at 16.8p bought by NON strategic investors lol!

Not sure why Irwin thinks that's a 'boom'.

But then again, he might have snaffled some of those seemingly self created 25m shares that SOLG have placed with investors which they did not name.

That said, for most common pi's todays action and past days have presented ample opportunity to buy up stock at sub 17p level. So free for all to 'boom'.

In years past, an RNS that said we've got a new shareholder on board and they are basically bigger and more cashed up than BHP ... would have had the sp doing cartwheels higher.

The funny thing is, had they placed those shares with Wyloo, or Fortescue or Barrick or Rio... then I genuinely think we would have had a proper boom.

I bet irwin and co are wondering what on earth they have to do to raise the price here. A lot more if they are to beat the 'controlling hand' that is .... blackrock... but that's my guess so discard it as you see fit.

I think it depends on what kind of corporate event it is. If a full sale then that might arrive as early as Q1 but wouldn't complete until probably late Q2 at best. If it's part sale or JV etc then could be Q1. 3 months slips away fast in this world.

I'd prefer we had an auction or bid battle going on with various parties than some manufactured Maxit deal. That said, it might take the latter to extract the former.

I'm still puzzled on how they can issue 155m shares based on existing pre-emption rights. Any ideas as that RNS is unclear.

Sharketmare,

I think it best we just await the strategic review and then decide what their plans are from there.

'Time' is the judge and jury here... StackHigh has said no monetisation transaction of note before Dec 23 end. So until we get to that date is not correct with his outlook.

Happy with that?

Stackhigh,

You or I or anyone out there has limited information. That's why I'm saying you are wrong and you are saying I'm wrong etc. That's fine. That's good discussion. But you are no closer to the truth than I it would seem.

You talk of no sale happening but have no evidence to support that. There is an ongoing strategic review that may or may not result in a sale or asset jv or some kind of monetisation. You have said that this is NOT going to happen before Dec 23 ye.

I'm saying there will be a monetisation transaction.

You have said that there might be a small transaction but nothing major. So we will have to wait and see who's right won't we??

Stackhigh

Keep trying, you're wrong again but I'll give you something... you certainly believe in your own words even though they are unfounded and baseless.