Member Info for Fortissimo

The message is loud and clear... as per DGR release and Sangha's comments. All seem pretty aligned to me.

It's all about 'exploration' and not about 'development'.

SOLG may well end going lock stock and barrel, but I think the goal here is already being messaged to shareholders... eg... we want to try and rinse and repeat the success of the Alpala exploration. So expect exploration to continue across folio while ENSA is sold off. How that happens is 'details' and we'll know in good time. But I get the feeling the main goal from the SR is NOT to sell the entire business. But to sell ENSA and retain the bulk of the exploration folio. I agree with this to some extent as the latter will likely go to the buyer for free and there's huge value (potentially) in those 50 to 60 odd licences which are rare in Ecuador and some in non tree-hugger areas. But I think we'll see a slimmed down exploration folio in future.

Note... 'generate shareholder value'... through the licence blocks that have significant potential. So not all 60 licences... but a select few. So again, I'm guessing here but the likelihood of relinquishing some blocks is inevitable so that will come or they will be shoe-d into the ENSA sale. So definitely some 'subsidiary' chess to be played post merger.

Scott Caldwell, Interim CEO of SolGold, commented:

"....accelerate exploration opportunities that hold the most significant potential to generate shareholder value." END.

addicknt,

It started with NCM as you know and NCM were trying to get SOLG on the cheap like they did with GGP. NM and Maxit brought BHP in to help counter NCM and put them back in their box. Remember, Maxit sold out to BHP at 25p.

NCM and BHP live in a bubble where they think it's perfectly good business to give a junior miner £100m in cash for an extra 10% slice each. Both knew SOLG would require another $300m in cash when they took the 45p placing. What they didn't see was the Franco deal coming. From that point onwards, it was clear that SOLG were not interested in heavy dilution for cash.

That's when it all changed. Now the end product of the last 4 years of finance is that we have several names in the hat when it comes to being potential interested parties for Alpala post strategic review.

1. BHP
2. NCM
3. Chinese

On top of this we might have Mitsui in the mix too. And then there's all those in the shadows that have yet to show their hand... Codelco, Fortescue, Lundin, Wyloo, Gina R, Anglo American, Rio, Barrick and a few others.

Having 3 names as shareholders is a bit like a bouncer having your name on the door. You're in. Whether that has an advantage in bidding... we will soon find out but the introduction of the Chinese will have BHP more hacked off than any royalty deal!!! And not a word from them at all. What do BHP next?? Hold out for best price like the rest of us and force the Chinese to pay top dollar?? Because the reality is, if the Chinese want it then there's not much BHP can do to stop them getting it, geo politics aside of course.

DOW Jones has entered a technical bull market. Fed has signalled 'slower for longer' suggesting rates hikes will be moderate going forwards.

Last DOW was in bull market, SOLG was trading in the high 20's to mid 30's.

It's a mystery why SOLG are half the price seen just half a year ago. The company has more cash, larger stake in ENSA coming, Alpala further derisked, Porvenir more advanced. And... a new shareholder on the books which just happens to be bigger and more powerful than BHP.

18p??? Farrrrquin jokers are the spivs. Sort it out.

We are still 4p shy from the Oct 7th Merger RNS. We are well behind where we should be. The stock should be into the mid 20's after bagging $85m+ in cash for minor dilution and minor royalty.

Over 20%+ of market cap raised in cash and you'd think the market could muster up 21p/22p levels wouldn't you?

It will get there soon enough but boy oh boy has the market been generous gifting SOLG shares away at sub 20p over last few weeks. Madness.

We had some press quotes on the Osisko royalty and barbed ones at that. We had toys out of the pram on the Franco deal. But interestingly, no comment on the recent Chinese 6.3% placement deal.

On a side note, did we get to the bottom of the pre-emption rights issue as thought the consensus was that SOLG could not issue 155m+ shares to another entity without offering other shareholders the chance (pre-emption rights). Was this another cash box deal then?

Most assumed it couldn't be done but here we are and BHP and NCM (and all of us) are diluted by 6%+.

Nothing fascinating about it all or surprising. It's well documented that BHP and NCM wanted Mather out as per last 2 AGM's attempts. It's pretty obvious after the first and the most recent royalty deal that NCM and BHP were not happy. If investors thought that BHP and NCM would be voting for all SOLG resolutions then you're asleep at the wheel.

I did print the balance of ownership some days ago which shows that despite the Chinese deal, the combo of BHP, NCM, Blackrock and Norges far exceed the Mather/CGP camp for now.... but post merger, that changes significantly. So the AGM really is the last opportunity BHP et al have to try and destabilise SOLG and vote against key resolutions.

If retail investors sit on their hands or vote against then it's tantamount to handing the keys over to BHP.

So get your votes in now if you haven't already and support your company and investment.

Better volume across TSX as well. Clearly warming up now and the engines revving - long way to go mind you, but when it kicks off it will be fast.

Whether it's 'fast and smart' I guess we'll find out soon. FWIIW, I think the merger will complete pretty swiftly after the EGM vote which I can't see hitting any resistance at all.

Healthy again and the way it's pegged at 17.5p, I'm expecting another large trade posted after hours.

Seriously.... how good are those Senegal fans!

Brill stuff

Or perhaps the answer is a consortium... Chinese 30% stake, NCM, 20%, BHP 30% and codelco 20%?

Double the PFS with CAPEX at $6bln and knock out 25 years of mega resources which would return enough cash to Lasso and co to manage Chinese debt and please the IMF. At end of the day... the way forward for Ecuador is through big business not preventing it due to US politics.

There are real risks in Ecuador as with Chile and Peru etc. If the Chinese are brave enough to get mining in Ecuador through mirador etc then why shouldn't they be rewarded (or allowed) to take on ENSA/Cascabel. Ultimately, they have already proven their worth and commitment. What's the answer to American interest??

Anglo American plc and their 44 billion market cap.... easy... just stock a 75p bid in and it's yours.

Job done.

Bit stinky if true. They must have had insider knowledge! Selling in June and buying back today truly inspired. Hats off Warren or Sangha... or erm I mean Konwave lol!

You gotta laugh.

anon1977,

I think it's blackrock buying back the stock the sold a while back... or loaned out. Just a hunch but it's possible to have large volumes moved 'between' accounts or instruments with zero effect on the share price.

Like I said a few days ago, we will have some TR1's coming on Dec 9th post Chinese share issue. And there might be some holders out there that are keen to manage their thresholds/TR1 requirements. All about shadows the moment and SOLG BoD's have an idea on who's who when it comes to voting at the AGM but they don't know the full story. No one does. AGM on Dec 22nd very important indeed. Voting was tight last time and it will be tight again.

Another 3m volume gone through just before after hours close.

So 15m+ day today

They think they can slip these deals through unnoticed... but they can't.

Jiangxi actually paid nearer 21p if you account for the known fact that they will be diluted post CGP merger and that fact was known. RCGL highlighted this a few days ago.

Post merger Jiangxi will drop to around 4.9% I think.

So the placing at 17p (it wasn't 16p) or split hairs and go for 16.8p but forex is swing around the weaker dollar blah blah blah...

The fact is had they taken 21p placing on Dec 9th, that soon feels like a 17p placing post merger dilution on Jan 9th assuming CGP meeting gets the requisite approvals.

Ortherncopper,

I don't see that way at all. I think Cascabel is rare and super majors are desperate for resources and opportunities. Countries like Chile, Peru, Venezuela, Brazil and so on are all volatile and majors are looking elsewhere. Russia was once an outlet or opportunity for some of them and that door is closed now. Opportunities like this do not come along very often. Ecuador has it's own issues, I'm not going ignore that factor, but compared to most of South America, it's a new green grassroots opportunity for a super major and concessions likely.

If I were you, I would concentrate on the asset and ignore all the canoe, paddle and other stuff. It's the asset that commands the price. If a buyer wants it, then they'll have to pay for it.

Orphencopper

"Of course I’d take 80p now… I’d take 40p today"

Out of interest Orphencopper, what price do you think NCMand BHP would be willing to sell out for assuming they are not interested in bidding. Let's just assume they are not and they are now aligned with all shareholders in getting best Bang for buck. It's peanuts to BHP and NCM... but there's no way either ones are selling for 40p imho. At that level I highly suspect BHP would offer a better price.

And that's the real debate here... The Chinese have 6%+ foothold now and even if they lost a bid war they are still making double or treble their 6% investment I'm sure.

Not many Tier 1 assets out there that are not already in super majors hands. Cascabel might well be the Chinese's best opportunity for a decade. You really couldn't ask for a better outfit to put up against BHP. The latter are now up against a much deeper pocketed entity than themselves and that's a rare place for BHP to find themselves.

Remember Cascabel is a smelters dream. It's Gold, copper mix plus other precious metals is highly prized. You might take 40p today but I think the players in this game want much more than that.

Post the recent placing on Dec 9th and the merger dilution of Jan 9th, the following is roughly correct (not precise and in no order).

1. BHP 9.9%
2. NCM 9.9%
3. Norges 2.8%.
4. Blackrock 3.6%
Combined total (as an example = 26.2%

5. Tenstar 3.4%
6. DGR 6.5%
7. N Mather 2.8%
8. Jiangxi 4.9%
Combined total (as an example = 17.6%

CGP's previous 6.7% holding would be down to around 5% and held in treasury one assume.

Between these larger holders, there's just short of 45% accounted for. The rest is out there via pi's, fund managers, HNWI's and so on. So that paints a picture that is very tight imho.

But compared to last years AGM, there's some decent weight reduction from the rogues in the above tier.

Going to be tight. So get your votes in.

Lunchmoney ... (the master of precision) feel free to polish the above up!

Who knows how this is going to pan out but one thing is sure, if BHP genuinely want SOLG then they'll be sleeping less easy knowing that Jiangxi Copper are now in the mix.

I guess the two questions that really matter are as follows:

1. How much would Jiangxi Copper accept for their holdings
2. How much would BHP/NCM accept for their holdings

In my opinion, even if Jiangxi Copper went first and offered BHP (and rest of us) 45p a share, it's a no brainer for BHP to counter offer up 55p and push the Chinese to up their offer. It's because of this price level (45p to 55p) that I think any subsequent bid battle/tussles more likely to conclude in the 60's, 70's or 80's.

One thing I am sure about is that the Chinese are not going to get it on the cheap nor are BHP / NCM.

Post the AGM and merger, SOLG may well issue Jiangxi Copper another 5% (CGP SOLG shares post merger/dilution) but this time issued at mid 20's which would still put their average in region of 21p. At that point, BHP have serious problems. They are getting diluted down 9.5% or lower. Chinese will hold the same if not more. The sugar daddy going forwards will likely be Chinese and BHP will end up with 5% or lower. There's only so many times BHP can take a punch to the belly before they decide to nip it in the bud and bid... or they can just sit it out and watch the Chinese walk away with it.

We still don't know what Mitsui's involvement might be but I wouldn't rule them out for taking the CGP SOLG shares which might indicate to the Chinese that they too need to look over their shoulder. Get three in the ring for world class tier 1 asset like Cascabel and you have the best case scenario for majority of shareholders.

Looking forward to when the games commence which might be sooner than many think if BHP decide going early but reckon they want to see SOLG hold 100% ENSA first before they make a move which might explain the rather casual timeline since Oct 7th merger news.

At last... was beginning to worry TSX rules and regs approvals were going to drift on.

So AGM very much as you were last year apart from we have CGP 6.3% (reduced after share issue on Dec 9th) and Chinese holding of 6.3% You'd think that extra 12.6% would see them through. I imagine Maxit et al know exactly what they need vote wise.