RE: Quick poll.18 Feb 2023 19:17
Bozi,
"where are the speculators"...yes indeed. A valid point. The absence of buying from Norges, blackrock or the chinese is a concern especially at 12p/13p levels.
Putting that aside and looking at it purely from a traders point of view, the latter don't like zero news periods. So when the company says... erm... we now think we'll conclude the merger around end of Feb (27th) or possibly a few days later (early march) that's the green light for many to sell. Why hold stock for 10 days+ when you know nothing is going to give the sp a lift?
There is of course a strong chance that the RSI followers (they buy when RSI is low) will be wading in next week. In the last 5 years, SOLG has only been sub 21 on the RSI 10 times I believe. It's a rare event and is always accompanied by a decent bounce. Plenty of TA followers will be hoping for a dip into the lower 12's or even 11's but being too greedy can also see them lose out. Then there's the ARB boys of course. Some hefty shorts in play (they've already forward sold their 15 x SOLG shares when the price was 18p. Now they can either just wait until those 15 shares per cgp share arrive and close out or they might chose to close out a few in open market (some of that might have been going on in the 14's.
All in all. When you combine some over leveraged holders, factor in some squeezes, some ARB players, some impatient traders, and a potential 10 day sign posted zero news period.... it's a proper sheeeeet storm is it not??
I don't think the low sp has anything to do with fears over the business or assets or management but more to do with the notorious news void. Everyone knows that Scott and co are holding their cards close to their chest until AFTER they have their SOLG shares in the back pocket. Then and only then will they initiate the assumed ramp fest kicking off no doubt with a hole or two on Rio.
It seems to me that Scott and co don't want their CGP shareholders to be selling post share issue. Let's face it... why would they sell at 14p or 15p or even 12p?? That's a loss on the 16p shares straight off the bat.
Far better to issue those shares to CGP holders and then issue a bullish rns on plans going forward giving them all a solid reason to hold well into the mid 20's and beyond.