Member Info for Fortissimo

That is a puzzle. If not held in treasury, then were they simply cancelled when merger deal went through?

SOLG's CGP 5%+ stake would have been cancelled or factored into the merger. But like you say unclear where the stock went of whether that too was factored into the SOLG share issue to CGP holders... eg.. 95% of CGP holders swapped 1 for 15 and SOLG simply did nothing with the 5% holding in CGP.

Just think, apart from Irwin's little slip of tongue... we haven't heard the rampfest plan from Scott and team yet! There's no way they'll be quiet now they have SOLG shares in their back pocket. Time to get the markets interest back after a very dull and tortuous 6 months.

The ARB boys took it down along with help of Blackrock and Norges by looks fit. Now the ARB boys need to close out assuming they shorted more than what they were getting via CGP.

The ARB transactions started around the 18p/19p levels with some possibly weighing into the 21p/22p spike. So if they can balance the books the 16's/17's and 18's that's all good. The market liked the merger news when related and stock was in 20's. So all done now and fully funded etc you'd think mid 20's would be fair until SR news or something better like asset sale concluded.

Like I said the other day, I would love them to just get a deal done and announce distribution to shareholders on register as of today's date or prior day etc. Reward all those that have held for so long and penalise those that bailed but sit on sidelines.

That's a good reminder redknight, SOLG and the chinese likely have an ongoing relationship and certainly more than enough time over the last 2 and half years to discuss various interests. The investment in 2020 was specifically for Porvenir which is near the chinese mines in the south, so made sense. But question is... do the chinese want to be in the north as well? My guess is.... absolutely.

SOLG have 100% ENSA now and the market will soon wake up to that reality. There are no fragmented or complicated ownership issues preventing a sale or bid. It's open season now and SOLG's share price is at multi year lows which must be very inviting for predators out there.

SM, my bad... I thought you meant 3 bagger eg 15p rounded to 45p. I think you're not far off with 60p but the question is... is that for SOLG lock stock and barrel or just for ENSA?

Best thing Maxit can do is get the ball rolling. The first bid or presented deal might have to be low ball. Might be 40p levels. Then we'll see who comes out of the shadows. FMG and quite a few others are already in Ecuador and they are not there for fun. FMG have balance sheet to make Ecuador a new mining Provence in same way as BHP or the Chinese. Get an auction or bid / counter bid process going and we should do ok. I can't believe we would have just one interested party in one of the best tier 1 discoveries in last decade.

SharketMare, whoever we negotiate or discuss sale terms with will be acutely aware that there is someone else waiting around the corner. As someone said yesterday... it's a bit like putting a house up for sale, buyers have a choice... they can offer below asking price and risk being gazumped or they can agree a price above or at asking price and have it removed from market or in some cases agree terms before it goes on sale ... so it never appears on the market.

It's all about the prize. The asset is off the charts. The metal mixes amazing. Regional / geopolitical landscape welcoming and open to business. It's potentially a $20bln PROFIT opportunity based on expected copper prices circa 2027 through to 2035.

I think our negotiating position is pretty solid and not sure it would be more solid even if we could prove we could take it to production ourselves. It's now marabout Tier1 mine opportunity for the big players and they are rare. It would be a steal for under $3bn. Daylight robbery at under $2bln. I can't see BHP or Anglo or Rio Tinto or FMG or Chinese letting this stunning property go cheap. Just not going happen.

I think bulk of brokers had around 75p to 80p targets. Some did have it as low as 50p levels but that was based on 2.3bln shares. So let's go average of around 85p. That's based on 85% ENSA.

85p x 2.3bln = just shy of £2bln. (note GBP and not dollars).

Nothing has changed to the asset since those valuations so on a 100% ENSA basis the above is actually closer to £2.3bln.

Split that by the 3bln shares now in issue and you get 76p.

Why on earth would you think 44.5p is the best we'd get? (3 x 14.8p)??

Seriously... stop focusing on the share price and focus on the asset. What a tier 1 mine is worth in a high demand copper/gold environment.

SOLG was 14p in 2020 and hit 42p in 2022 on PFS news. Most expected at that level that an offer might come in at double that price (84p), some thought higher.

Do not dismiss the extra 15% ENSA. It's very valuable and as a 100% ENSA controlled asset, it's more valuable than when brokers priced it at 78p+.

Noront was 23cents and ended up going for 110cents because Wyloo thought that was the right price to pay. At 23 cents, the market thought a bid wasn't coming. At 55 cents the market thought BHP's offer looked ok. At 70 cents the market was made to look like the dysfunctional casino it really is. At 110cents, the market was shown to be woefully incorrect.

Similar has happened to Wood Group recently. As low as 100p and offers made around 230p+ and expected to be much higher soon.

Don't get sucked or conditioned into talking the asset worth down. Irwin wasn't referring to 600% rise required (that's misleading), he was referring to some posters question about 78p being fair price. Irwin thought that was too optimistic. I guess BHP also thought 70 cents on Noront would seal the deal. You'd be surprised what happens in a bid war.

Most II's that took the last few placings did so with prices of 21p to 26p levels. The difference now is that it looks highly unlikely that the II's will get another look in on equity slice where SOLG is concerned. That said, they might get ops on a NewCo but that still excludes them from ENSA.

So if they want in pre ENSA deal... it's open market for them and that bodes well for the sp.

I think Scott and co will hold tight on those 6%+ treasury shares. That said... what's the betting that they go and self award themselves another 100m shares+ and then a month after announces an ENSA sale deal lol!

DM, not sure where I read it now but do recall some management discussion on Chical and Rio being high priority targets alongside something near Warintza. I think you touch on a good point - they haven't specified exact drilling locations for the $11m spend in H1. But got me thinking... we know the chinese (through valuestone) were keen to spend $5m specifically on Porvenir which was the minor placing done at 32p some years ago! Now we have a situation whereby the chinese have pumped in $30m or more at 16p and I do wonder whether that is specifically (not all but most of it) to explore/prove up Porvenir and also Warintza surrounding areas?

As always .... thank you DM.

order book looks light on buys side with main mm's moving to 15.1p for larger volumes.

Might have to wait for TSX to boot up before they finally start moving it up. I think any ex CGP holders who want out regardless of price will be traded on TSX so be interesting to see volumes over there. For balance, some might fancy topping up rather than selling as sp is 10% discount to their new SOLG shares.

Scott is presenting at the ned of the week and highly unlikely he is going to reuse Darryl's old presentation lol!

So we should get an update of some sorts.

If I were Scott and co... I'd have a series of RNS's lined up from SR to new driving at Rio or Chical or near Warintza etc etc. MD&A had around a decent multi million spend on exploration planned in H1 so only 4 months left on that.

Whilst I wasn't really expecting TR1's from NCM and BHP because they were shoddy after the Chinese placing, I was expecting all the others to update such as DGR, Tenstar, Mather et al.

Woody,

I wouldn't worry about what Irwin wants as a return. He's a smaller shareholder compared to the likes NM/Tenstar/DGR and then of course NCM and BHP. It's the bigger boys that will ultimately dictate what ENSA goes for as it will need a vote to pass the deal. Irwin might be happy with 25p or 30p. But I don't think Mather nor BHP / NCM would be happy with that and likely to see counter offers from BHP if the price is below what they believe to be decent value.

At end of the day, just need the first deal or bid to be revealed. If it's low ball say 25p to 30p range, then I'd expect we'd see subsequent bids from others follow. Doesn't really matter what the first bid is as in theory 'real value' based on the asset to should win through. Just the eternal question of whether it's ENSA and a spin off proposal or a full takeover over lock stock and barrel.

I think Irwin's stake in CGP originated some years ago so likely around the 5p levels on a comparable to SOLG. He said in the video yesterday that he had already done very well froths investment implying multiple returns albeit 'paper' and to realised just yet. But as he clearly said... 'trying to sell it to the....' suggests he expects 'shareholder' value (as stated by new management in RNS's) to be returned to shareholders. He like other were in very early doors has been waiting a long time for this monetisation event.

I think there's a few cogs turning at the same time and I wouldn't look at timeframes or duration as a sign that things are protracted or not going well. Doing a deal on Alpala will involve the Ecuador gov. Any new partner will want reassurances from Lasso and co. We have already been told that SOLG and Ecuador gov/mining ministry are in discussions with regard to 'protection' moving from exploration to exploitation phases. There's lots of moving parts but I think Ecuador gov/ Lasso will be hugely excited and motivated to help get any deal on Alpala through eg delivering rapid support. That said... if the chinese are involved (most think they are) then we know Lasso / Gov are in process of fine tuning the free trade deal which to be honest dwarfs any SOLG deal in terms of importance. But a $3bln+ investment in mining is large for Ecuador and I suspect the Chinese will use leverage / deal making on the free trade discussions to ensure they benefit from certain commitments on investments and provision of debt etc.

It's not all down to SOLG and their advisors. It's about several parties, whether that Chinese, Ecuador and SOLG or some other mix.

But FWIIW, I think SOLG/Maxit et al have been in discussions or in planning phase for the end game for well over a year. I think something was offered to BHP in June 2022 (they also met with lasso around then) and that was plan A which then collapsed leaving plan B. Just a hunch but think it explains the rapid action and volte-face in late July/Aug.

PDAC conference coming up at end of the week and we know Scott is there presenting.

So new presentation and hopefully some bullish remarks on SR although they might prefer to just remain quiet and then deliver the deal via RNS.

Now all CGP holders are SOLG holders.... I expect the news flow to be fast and hopefully impactful. Lets get Rio drilling pronto if not already.

fast and smart

About to sell it.... mmm I think Warren knows more than most!

I thought he was about to say 'Indian's' or Indonesians.

They appear more advanced than the markets thinks at present.

Big difference between 'Trying to sell' and 'Selling it'. So let's see how they go but would not rule out an update with the SR stating multiple interested parties and advanced stage.

Great find. He seems a bit slow or possibly whisky'd up??

Ortherncopper

I would look to other small caps like solaris and Sunstone etc and see how their market caps fair. Of course you'd have to weight up their assets/progress and balance that out with proven monetisation. Hence my post regarding cabs of the rank. If the market sees evidence of the business model working... explore... derisk/prove up and then sell etc, it will begin to forward price new discoveries/exploration successes. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that the market was doing cartwheels based on 1 hole drilled on Porvenir. The move was around 28p to 43p in a few days I believe. Soon fizzled out but that's markets for you.

I think it's unfair to assume Porvenir is poor. Nearly every mine out there right now is 'poor' based on inflation pressures. These will ease throughout 2023. So I see the delays on Porvenir as sensible. Far wiser and better to get a PEA done on that when inflation numbers are half what they are today. And let's be real here... inflation numbers as they are are right now are misleading and not useful for a PEA.

IMHO SOLG were on track around May/June 2022 but surging inflation basically wiped out any benefits that PFS2 add ons could deliver. So, lots of work and money spent and advancing it but not good backdrop to rewrite the PFS. That said, when inflation drops those Tandy bolt ons and benefits of 2022 work will be very nice indeed.

Ortherncopper,

I think the company has already alluded to the fact that the concessions/licences will be reduced with focus on the most attractive or regionally important etc.

I think you have to look at the exploration company as a NewCo (like sharketMare mentions). It then becomes more aligned to something like Sunstone or Solaris. CGP have a track record or farming out licence blocks early stage and retaining a free carry eg Bramados and as we know 15% ENSA.

I very much doubt the NewCo will follow the old company ways of financing through equity raises. So I guess if I said to you here's the following... would you invest... what would you say or could you find a better small cap with better opportunities??

Here's the NewCo credentials (minus ENSA which hopefully is sold for 50p+ and return to current shareholders.

1. Porvenir (to be sold or JV'd or bundled in with package see point 4??)
2. 10 high priority Alpala look a like targets (some retained on 100% basis, others partnered.
3. 15 farmed out or JV deals on grass roots
4. 15 Licences either sold as a package or part of JV in
5. 15 to 20 licences to be relinquished.

Personally, I would invest in that NewCo as market cap likely to be around $150m to $200m due to Porvenir and high impact targets etc but clearly has potential till to grow to $900+ on any major discovery within a 2 year period. So possible 3 to 4 bagger with some dilution along the way for usual Admin salary costs etc.

Also - What I would really like to see is an RNS that drops into mail boxes that says ENSA sale done for XXp and funds to be distributed to shareholders ON THE REGISTER as of DATE on prior day. Thus that excludes all those sitting on the fence, all those that bailed or reduced and rewards the long term holders for .... holding.

Now CGP have their SOLG shares, I wouldn't rule that out.

Let's get ENSA sold and then I think you'll have less to worry about and more to look forward to.