Short term share price view31 Jan 2019 10:21
Like a lot of people here I am a long term holder I hold 260000 odd shares and I've taken a hit in the last few months as I always get it wrong when I try and trade I'm just holding so, if you'll humour me I've got to thinking .....
Imagine I'm a woman named Tina Mineheart and I had a friend who ran a new mining company called DogstarMining, which is going to mine agrochemicals which will be needed for the next 100 years. Now I'm really into mining and run my own mining dynasty, my company is called Xiacock and I’m already involved with DogstarMining, at quite a considerable cost.
While DogstarMining is a sure thing in the long term and fits very nicely with Xiacock existing businesses in the short term they have a cash flow problem, so while they have the cash to continue for several months they will eventually run out of money and mining will need to stop.
All interested parties are hanging on for news but I know that if the funding doesn't come then I'm in the hole for $300 million, but I’m not too worried as I’m one of the richest people in the world, in fact I'm the richest person in Gondwanaland, and I'm smart, as well as being beautiful, intelligent and philanthropic (flattery will get you everywhere ), I'm also a clever, ruthless business woman. I have $US15 billion in the bank so I can fund the whole mine myself, if I needed to, but if I was to step up to the plate and say here's another $300 million lets release all the additional funding, it gets me nowhere ! Just a US$300 million hole in my bank account. Now I take a real longterm view (ie decades) it would be much better for me to just sit back and watch, the share price falling and buy them up myself, via various holding accounts, knowing they will become part of my empire.
My mate who runs DogstarMining may well know that I'll see the project through to completion but much better for me to do nothing in the shorterm, just sit and watch while the current mining activities continue, the share price is shorted, and forced down and I, via some holding companies buy up the shares at a low price (up to notification limits etc), as in the short term while I'm doing this I'm getting a larger position overall in DogstarMining. Even though we both know it’s a sure-fire thing and the funding will come my mate can’t say anything, as he needs my money, and I’m playing my own game.
Once its getting near to the drop dead end date when mining needs to stop I can step up to the plate via Xiacock and say here's some more money via a joint venture (so I get another nice chunk of DogstarMining ), and release all the stuck funding. At which point the share price would rocket the shares I own would double or triple and I'm quid’s in.
Ultimately in this scenario LTH come out on top (reduced by chunk size), in the short term its brown trousers time though. So what do people think ?
Ps I’m not into crossdressing. Also I’m still holding. Good Luck all etc etc.
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