focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Yes. its in a low risk low return quadrant.
https://www.humboldtjournal.ca/news/bhp-over-invested-in-jansen-project-ceo-1.23835277
they could cancel it to move to a low risk high return quadrant.
No Idea, I'm not an investment banker.
CF was though, I'm sure he must have some ideas.
The bit you skipped over ...
" I can’t help feeling that any funding lifeline could boost the shares to several times their current value."
Nasa, Naaah don't think so.
BHP yes, it would be cheaper for them, also an ideal match for their portfolio, also with them being headquartered in Melbourne I wouldn't be surprised if Chris didn't know people on the board already :-)
https://im-mining.com/2019/10/17/bhps-jansen-potash-project-set-early-2021-investment-decision/
yes. I can see a blue chip getting involved , specfically I can see BHP coming on board (check my previous postings) which would lead to a bit of dilution but as per my musings below I think we would still come out on top.
*Just need to hold your never* Just need to hold your nerve,
Bucky Boy you're still here - only took you 28 minutes to respond, you really cant have much on, but seasons greetings to yourself.
""100% dilution issue 14 billion new shares", ignoring the obvious error, I'd suggest 75%+ dilution (21 billion new shares) best case."
Yes I'm inclined to go with a best case scenario, Dont forget we have two of the worlds biggest soverign wealth funds already on board, I can see a scenario where we don't need a strategic partner, If SM continue with good tunneling rates, and get the costs down, they could both double up on thier investments, to avoid loosing thier current holdings. That would tie in with their strategic view (norway - diversify away from oil) (Quatar - fertilizer distribution offshoot) so either or both of them could come up with the cash for an ongoing slice of the pie in the future.
As per the conference as the risk reduces on the hard bit, shaft sinking, initial tunnelling, the costs reduce first Polyhalite comes closer, costs drop less is needed, less dilution is required, so the better for the current shareholders. I think we will take a bit of haircut but after that all should be good methinks. Just need to hold your never, hang on in there and wait in my view.
Merry Xmas.
Hi Fred.
Thanks for posting the conference call link,
https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/EventConsoleApollo.jsp?&eventid=2133980&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=&format=fhaudio&mobile=&flashsupportedmobiledevice=&helpcenter=&key=1CBDBC9E51DDBE94558C259077A35C28&newConsole=false&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=748&playerheight=526&eventuserid=260988048&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=222766228&mediametricid=3008249&usercd=260988048&mode=launch
I had listened in on the original call, and I just reviewed it again so I have just taken some salient points and times (@MM:SS) from what CF was saying some of which I’ve highlighted below along with my disjointed musings on future share price prediction.
My take on the conference is this :-
Review is ongoing until March 2020, so there may be no news until then.
They are summarizing tunnelling/shaft speed (rates of progress) @15:15 @17:40, to give any potential strategic partner a better idea of what they are buying into and what still needs to occur, currently things are going well.
Other interesting points in the call were at @21:40 @23:10 @25:39
So this will take as long as it takes until March of next year, I don’t think there will be any major updates until towards the end of the review period, this will probably impact the share price, people will lose heart, so I can see the SP dipping a bit more from here.
Strategic partners / Investors will be monitoring the progress, and will await the results of progress before making any moves, when a strategic partner / investor comes on board the SP will jump at that point.
Short term I can see it hitting 20p (that is a guess by the way) long term where will that leave us and here are my musings, along with my simple maths.
So in 5+ year’s time where will the share price be ?
Current share base 7 billion (actually 7020196500 but 7 billion is easier to work with)
Production value of Sirius Minerals at full bore will be around US$20 billion / per year.
So share value is 20 / 7 = 2.85 (call it 3) so US$3 = £2.28 per share (call it £2)
Nevertheless, to get there we will (probably) be diluted…..
50% dilution issue 7 billion new shares
100% dilution issue 14 billion new shares
At 100% dilution from where we are currently, we would have 21 billion shares in issue so that would give a share value of US$20billion / 21 billion shares. = 0.9523809523809524 of a US$1 so lets call it
US$1 = £0.762781 lets call it 75p per share.
If the dilution is less then obviously the shareprice will be higher.
What do we think … ?
So can I, but that may not be beneficial to current equity holders.
Agree, but comes back around to my first point ...
yes but if there are multiple bidders ... ?
Ground hog day again ....
see you in a couple of days and we can do it again under another subject heading.
Normally I would agree with you however in this case.
some major investors are already in and will lose too much
According the latest estimate its $400 million to get buy currently 2 states (norway and quatar) are already in for more than that so i dont think they will just write it off.
The upside is too big and i can seem bids / offers / cash from differing sources.
If there is a share issue along with funding then the upside will be greater.
Just hold and wait in my Opinion.
"In the absence of multiple bidders your are likely to get shafted, pardon the pun."
yes but if there are multiple bidders ... ?
Does anyone think there will be ?
Discuss ........
*charlatans* :-)
Nice spot Chemistry2, goes to show how all the "no market for this, unproven product" charletons are wrong. It will all help to get the cash ....
If when they went back to the market they would be going back for less.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/908269/sirius-minerals-could--get-by--with-400mln-fundraising-says-broker-908269.html
admittedly the above is from the inhouse tame broker but the amounts required are reducing and the tunnel is getting longer ..........
Bucky boy.
Put the rest of it out....
The Company has therefore today announced that the scope of construction activities on the project will now be adjusted while the Company undertakes a strategic review of its options.
The Board considers that a reduced pace of development focused on key areas of the project that will ultimately serve to preserve the most value for the project will provide the Company with a period of up to six months to review all available options for the Company to move forward. The Group will need to secure additional external financing in order to allow it to continue operations after 31 March 2020.
So it was a company decision not one of Jp morgan saying they couldn't the company pulled the offer due to market conditions. Once they change who is to say they wont go back to the market with a need for a reduced amount .... ? Yes the shareprice is down currently, but it can soon shoot up again.
Here's a firm with $463 Million (and the rest) going spare currently.
https://www.ft.com/content/b146ab32-16a5-11ea-8d73-6303645ac406
Maybe they could be interested in a strategic partnership with another firm , where its a lot easier to do business ... ?
Wahay ....
we are in at number 4
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-05/new-ceo-of-u-k-s-worst-stock-of-2019-will-have-work-cut-out
either way we will find out soon
Pretty fast Bucky, for someone who is not a holder you seem to have lots of interest .......
As for people being crazy enough to buy, I've bought some myself at 3p to add with the others I hold currently.
To add to that, I could see a couple of the major players being interested once this is up and running it will be generating US$500 million profit + Per Annum ! Quite a cash cow to let slip away too easily ......
Likewise I'm still holding.
Not seen this one.
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/11/30/why-sirius-minerals-17-share-price-rise-makes-me-optimistic/