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Likewise its not what the share price is now its how the deal goes and what the share price will be in a few years, up in my opinion

Seeing that trump is as dumb as a box of hammers and his actions have fallout elsewhere.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/06/investing/saudi-aramco-stock-price-oil/index.html

This sort of thing will be making SXX much more of an attractive asset so I wouldn't be surprised if there were a combination of potential suitors out there

Quick question if I may, does anyone know the current progress of the tunnel and how far its been dug currently ?

Reasoning behind this is that the further they have gone the less there is to dig so the funding to completion will have reduced ?

Does anyone know the current excavation rate ? Metres per day. I believe they have been running at 30M + per day in the past, Does anyone know the current average ?

Nope just found it. different sirius airplanes as opposed to mining :-)

I'm sure i saw something regarding sirius and another middle eastern soverign wealth fund over the christmas period (not quatar or norway) but I cant seem to find it again ! Did anyone else see it ? I think it was in the times ??

Happy new year et al ....

15Lives ...

"I believe we're facing dilution on a big scale, perhaps we're talking 15 to 20bn shares to secure the finance to see us through the next phase of construction. Despite this, in light of projected earnings and construction going well, still a worthwhile investment."

Yes I agree but I think it full bore when the mine is up and running and finance issues completed the share price will be around 75p a share based on a turnover of US$20 billion / 20billion shares.

Bucky Boy. You're back, how's the hangover ? I do hope you are not feeling queezy.

Regarding your last

"Without multiple offers, a single interested party could just let the clock run out, or at best turn the sale/rescue of SXX (in whole or in part) into a Dutch auction."

well we shall just have to wait and see won't we, I'm sure there will be a couple of interested players but as the review is still ongoing, I wont panic for lack of news until the end of march 2020.

I'm going to hang up my keyboard now for the rest of the year , so see you in 2020 where we can do it all again, until the funding is obtained, by however means.

GLAlTH etc etc.

Scotman. I would be surprised if they hadn't !

A bloke delivering some Amazon stuff to me just told me that he had been to one of the managers houses and had seen the company integration documents on the desk as he was dropping off his delivery , so it must be true........ LOL

Yeh I agree this is more up to date from 2 months ago.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-10-16/UPDATE-2-BHP-sets-early-2021-for-decision-on-Jansen-potash-project.html

Interesting couple of lines from the above
"In its September production report, BHP said project planning and work to finalise a port solution was continuing and the $5 billion-plus Stage 1 will be presented to the board for an investment decision by February 2021.
BHP, which has already spent $2.7 billion on Jansen, said in May it expects excess supply capacity of the crop nutrient to be used up by the middle of the next decade, while the Jansen project would create a "high-margin, long-life" mine."

Maybe like I said they will cut their losses, and go for a cheaper project SXX with a better product and shorter time to market.

Call me old fashioned but that would make sense in my book.

I think they may cut their losses.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/19/elliott-attacks-disastrous-bhp-billiton-plan-build-potash-mine/

Is something happening Friday ?

Yes. its in a low risk low return quadrant.
https://www.humboldtjournal.ca/news/bhp-over-invested-in-jansen-project-ceo-1.23835277

they could cancel it to move to a low risk high return quadrant.

No Idea, I'm not an investment banker.

CF was though, I'm sure he must have some ideas.

The bit you skipped over ...

" I can’t help feeling that any funding lifeline could boost the shares to several times their current value."

Nasa, Naaah don't think so.

BHP yes, it would be cheaper for them, also an ideal match for their portfolio, also with them being headquartered in Melbourne I wouldn't be surprised if Chris didn't know people on the board already :-)

https://im-mining.com/2019/10/17/bhps-jansen-potash-project-set-early-2021-investment-decision/

yes. I can see a blue chip getting involved , specfically I can see BHP coming on board (check my previous postings) which would lead to a bit of dilution but as per my musings below I think we would still come out on top.

*Just need to hold your never* Just need to hold your nerve,

Bucky Boy you're still here - only took you 28 minutes to respond, you really cant have much on, but seasons greetings to yourself.

""100% dilution issue 14 billion new shares", ignoring the obvious error, I'd suggest 75%+ dilution (21 billion new shares) best case."

Yes I'm inclined to go with a best case scenario, Dont forget we have two of the worlds biggest soverign wealth funds already on board, I can see a scenario where we don't need a strategic partner, If SM continue with good tunneling rates, and get the costs down, they could both double up on thier investments, to avoid loosing thier current holdings. That would tie in with their strategic view (norway - diversify away from oil) (Quatar - fertilizer distribution offshoot) so either or both of them could come up with the cash for an ongoing slice of the pie in the future.

As per the conference as the risk reduces on the hard bit, shaft sinking, initial tunnelling, the costs reduce first Polyhalite comes closer, costs drop less is needed, less dilution is required, so the better for the current shareholders. I think we will take a bit of haircut but after that all should be good methinks. Just need to hold your never, hang on in there and wait in my view.

Merry Xmas.

Hi Fred.
Thanks for posting the conference call link,

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/EventConsoleApollo.jsp?&eventid=2133980&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=&format=fhaudio&mobile=&flashsupportedmobiledevice=&helpcenter=&key=1CBDBC9E51DDBE94558C259077A35C28&newConsole=false&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=748&playerheight=526&eventuserid=260988048&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=222766228&mediametricid=3008249&usercd=260988048&mode=launch

I had listened in on the original call, and I just reviewed it again so I have just taken some salient points and times (@MM:SS) from what CF was saying some of which I’ve highlighted below along with my disjointed musings on future share price prediction.

My take on the conference is this :-

Review is ongoing until March 2020, so there may be no news until then.
They are summarizing tunnelling/shaft speed (rates of progress) @15:15 @17:40, to give any potential strategic partner a better idea of what they are buying into and what still needs to occur, currently things are going well.

Other interesting points in the call were at @21:40 @23:10 @25:39

So this will take as long as it takes until March of next year, I don’t think there will be any major updates until towards the end of the review period, this will probably impact the share price, people will lose heart, so I can see the SP dipping a bit more from here.

Strategic partners / Investors will be monitoring the progress, and will await the results of progress before making any moves, when a strategic partner / investor comes on board the SP will jump at that point.

Short term I can see it hitting 20p (that is a guess by the way) long term where will that leave us and here are my musings, along with my simple maths.

So in 5+ year’s time where will the share price be ?

Current share base 7 billion (actually 7020196500 but 7 billion is easier to work with)

Production value of Sirius Minerals at full bore will be around US$20 billion / per year.

So share value is 20 / 7 = 2.85 (call it 3) so US$3 = £2.28 per share (call it £2)

Nevertheless, to get there we will (probably) be diluted…..

50% dilution issue 7 billion new shares
100% dilution issue 14 billion new shares

At 100% dilution from where we are currently, we would have 21 billion shares in issue so that would give a share value of US$20billion / 21 billion shares. = 0.9523809523809524 of a US$1 so lets call it
US$1 = £0.762781 lets call it 75p per share.

If the dilution is less then obviously the shareprice will be higher.

What do we think … ?

So can I, but that may not be beneficial to current equity holders.

Agree, but comes back around to my first point ...

yes but if there are multiple bidders ... ?

Ground hog day again ....

see you in a couple of days and we can do it again under another subject heading.