Member Info for ForFXSake

Sorry Soup, I meant upfront payments, not milestones:

"-- On 23 September 2020, Nuformix granted an exclusive option to Oxilio, a private pharmaceutical development company, to license NXP001 globally for oncology indications. This triggered the first upfront payment and the option period ran until 23 March 2021

-- Nuformix and Oxilio will now work together to finalise a global licensing agreement for NXP001. Once this has been agreed, this will trigger a second undisclosed upfront payment, payable to Nuformix. Under this agreement, Nuformix will license its patent estate and know-how on NXP001 in return for development milestone payments and a royalty on any future net sales, capped at GBP2m per annum"

I read that as two upfront payments and then development milestones. If the first upfront was paid in September last year then where is the second one?

"FX, milestones are for development. First will by in Q1 2022 when Oxilio take OXO001 to phase 1 trials."

Surely the terms for payment are linked to the date of triggering.

Soup,

First milestone was triggered in Sept last year, the second in March this year.

The half year report last year reported revenue of 195k GBP. It covered April to Sept 2020 so I'm pretty sure it didn't include the first milestone payment.

The full year reported 32k GBP trade and other receivables. I would have expected this to show the milestone but thought it too small so assumed it hadn't been received.

If it hadn't been received back then then then we should definitely have seen it this time around (no one gets a full year to pay up!)

I'm actually beginning to think that the first milestone was about 30k GBP and was reported in the full year and the second milestone was for 50K GBP and has just been reported now.

What else could it be?

Are you sure? I thought they had both been triggered?

I wonder if our favourite sellers still hold enough to have themselves some fun while we wait for news

" If this is a final raise before something huge comes from NFX's IP then they've played an absolute blinder! "

Indeed. I'm hoping that's why we've heard nothing about the status of legacy NXP002 talks nor a replacement CEO yet.

I have a good feeling about Riddell, I hope it isn't misplaced. If he has pulled off a blinder here then it might at least go some way to making up for the dreadful milestone payments we got for Oxilio.

We'll see

"And shorting"

Try reading the RNS again

"The Company will pay Lanstead's legal costs incurred in the Subscription and in entering into the Sharing Agreements and, in addition, has agreed to issue to Lanstead 2,000,000 new Ordinary Shares (the "First Value Payment Shares") in connection with entering into the First Sharing Agreement and 5,700,000 shares in connection with entering into the Second Sharing Agreement (the "Second Value Payment Shares"). The Second Value Payment Shares are expected to be issued in April 2022 at the same time as the issuance of the Second Subscription Shares.

In no event will fluctuations in the Company's share price result in any increase in the number of Subscription Shares issued by the Company or received by Lanstead. A decline in the Company's share price would not result in any advantage accruing to Lanstead and the Sharing Agreements allows both Lanstead and the Company to benefit from future share price appreciation."

EchDelta, like I said, it depends on what news we get going forward.

I'm no fan of the outgoing CEO. It seems from the revenue figures that she pretty much gave away NXP001 to Oxilio. I'm assuming the revenue figure of 50k GBP includes both milestone payments. Absolutely shocking for a global oncology deal. It also looks like NXP001 for CINV has been shelved for now.

I was a bit concerned by the placing when I first saw the RNS. My immediate thoughts were that they'd run out of cash but, according to the half year report, they still had over 1m GBP available in cash at the end of Sept (which I assume is from the first placing).

So if I've read the following correctly, the placing could be a fairly shrewd move depending on what news comes in from this point:

"A significant factor in Nuformix's decision to enter into the Subscription is that the Sharing Agreements provide the opportunity for the Company to benefit from positive future share price performance. There is no upper limit placed on the additional proceeds receivable by the Company as part of the monthly settlements and the amount available in subsequent months is not affected"

I think it means that for each month that the VW share price is above the benchmark of 2p, the company will receive a pro-rata settlement based on what they would have got if the price only matched the benchmark. E.g if the VW sp is 4p on that month then they will get an additional 100% funds in settlement over and above the benchmark payment. It can work the other way though. However, there is no limit to upside, so I'm assuming a sudden hike up on deal news/rumour would mean alot more income from this.

Lanstead are basically being paid a total of 7m shares for this agreement, so will benefit from price rises. The total shares issued will be no more 17% of current capital.

If AR knows what he's doing then this could work out quite well.

So what happened to us being fully funded through to phase 1 readiness/end of 2022?

Sounds about right Soup.

Which is where, I would have thought, the broker and the PR company should upping their game to start changing minds. Why is that not happening?

It's a nice analogy Chab but we're not talking about selling a cheap runaround here. We're talking about a company that is being touted as having 2 major blockbuster drugs, each with a market measured in billions and with supposedly very promising pre-clinical data to hand, all of which is currently valued at around 8m quid.

You should have no shortage of investors willing to take a risky punt on those kind of odds, not here though. Volume so far today is 238k (3200 quid).

An rising concern here is that, given the steady increase in restrictions due to omicron, how likely is it that third party testing contractors will have capacity commandeered by the govt like they did with the Newcastle Fibrosis Research Group in 2020?

If that happens and the January slots suddenly disappear then this super outsourced business model won't look so super any more.

"There is no real news to support it till January.people are short term."

Short term! LOL!! We've been waiting for 2 years for a deal to materialise that was promised back in late 2019. I'm pretty sure there are others who have been waiting longer.

If the January results are so key then they shouldn't have announced anything until they were released. It's starting to feel like the RNS was just a diversionary tactic to make it feel like a deadline had been achieved.

Why has no value been added at all? Is the reality that the can has just been kicked down the road again?

Fair comment SSM.

They've probably had plenty of opportunity to load off a few more since then, hopefully.

To be honest, I don't know either SSM.

The figures for DT and even Julian Higgins seem rather specific but I don't know if there is any kind of accurate service that can gather and flog such info (although in todays world it seems that no information is private anymore)

It shows the CPI holding as of 17th November, so fairly recent

I was just doing some sniffing around for shareholder numbers and found this:

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NUFORMIX-PLC-25531425/company/

Not sure how up-to-date it is but it must be after June as that's when Higgins dropped below 3%. It states that both Chorlton & Topalczay still hold fair chunks. If true then they could still knock the wind out of the sails of any future rise.

Just to brighten things up a bit :0(

I presume that a nebulised mist will be even more effective than a dry powder inhaler, if solubility is a problem.