Member Info for fogthemogg

What's that got to do with FXPO Troajan 🤔

It's 55k for oil and could be as low as 44k for 2025.

Based on the 2025 guidance JMAX, will you be revising your 60p by Easter prediction?

It's the 2025 outlook Maverick...2024 wasn't a disaster and nor was the 50% share price drop justified. But from a production perspective, it's a company in decline which appears to exist primarily to satisfy creditors and fund directors' lifestyles.

Now we have our answer...

"Most important" is subjective. For some, trailing financials which were largely expected are less important than future guidance. Of course 2024 financials and the % change versus 2023 looks epic, because the base numbers you're using from 2023 were terrible. If you compare 2024 to 2021, 2020 etc. then it doesn't look like anything special.

The market is forward-looking though, and today's production guidance shows an expected continued decline. But if you thought FRES was a bargain at 900p, then you've gotta love it at 670p 😁

"So have you noticed this happening with posts from other people fog?"

I've had multiple posts on HBR board removed, never on any others though...All these ridiculous posts about HBR being the most undervalued stock in the FTSE, guaranteed multibagger, Linda doing a great job etc. have been regurgitated on here for years by these ramping accounts.

If you can be bothered, scroll back to 2022 when HBR was 400p-500p and you will see posts which said exactly the same things. It's crazy...

One is cash in your pocket and the other one isn't, that's the difference...

"Apparently, my opinions are dangerous enough to get my posts removed on a regular basis. Or is a moderator of the site, also a contributer (SH?)"

I think that's a given. Any posts which are less than complimentary about the share price performance and HBR management are removed. Yet thousands of ramping posts by dozens of dummy accounts since 2022 are allowed to remain...It's obvious who they are.

Yes Fleccy, I'm familiar with why FTSE companies run out of ideas perform buybacks. I can also see why directors like them, as often their remuneration is linked to EPS which is boosted by buybacks. It's money for old rope...

But in the case of a lot of FTSE names which employ buybacks, the tangible benefits to shareholders, particularly private investors. remain elusive...Whether that be BP, Harbour, Vodafone etc.

Silver production flat YoY and gold production up 3%. You would think they'd have thrown the kitchen sink at production last year, given higher PM prices..

March prelims will be much stronger than 2023, but this trend of production stagnation and decline is at the crux of the problem. As I've said before, I suspect the best ore grades have gone, rather than it being attributable to FRES holding back production.

2025-2027 guidance looks underwhelming, falling production isn't going to take this back to 15 quid unless silver does a 1980s run to $50 (and stays there).

@danielh

The opportunity cost of not spaffing buyback cash up the wall is endless...R&D, capital investment, acquisitions, divi increase, throwing cash in a hole and burning it for a laugh etc.

@Oilheadgame

I think they do. That's kind of the point of investing, reacting before everybody else knows and acts...

Those rent boys can't be cheap Rookie :)

It looks like another sub-100p raid is incoming...Maybe they should have been accumulating at 40p-50p, instead of throwing their toys out of the pram now by taking it down for another share grab.

A new subject header about buybacks is like a moth to flame for longtimeinvestor...I'm sure he'll grace us with his presence by buzzing in shortly, you have been warned 😭

"What are holders here expecting? Could the shares recover to around 25p?"

30p is basically the new 90p.

Unlevered FCF is before debt repayment...

"Brent has fallen to early Dec price- HBR is the same fall"

Nearly -20% in a week? No, it hasn't...The selling and subsequent drops are because their FCF forecast is half that of 2022, despite huge increases in production and debt. People are wondering: "Where's all the money gone?"

"Seems like a orchestrated move to bring this down in short term"

Welcome to the London Stock Exchange. Thanks for playing :)