Member Info for fogthemogg

FXPO has always been very high risk, show me a single post on here which claimed otherwise?

The $3.76bn claim whilst monstrous, is arbitrary and somewhat moot, because the salient point here is INTENT. For the Ukrainian authorities to dream up that number, and to do it now when there's a greater will to end the war, belies their true intentions. They want FXPO's assets and they don't want to pay for it.

I still have my tranches in the 40s, but my higher priced 60-95 ones did get taken out in the high 80s, as I viewed 90p as solid support.

Let's see what today brings, we'll know shortly whether that was just the mother of all criminal treeshakes or whether it's the beginning of the end.

50% fall on 5 million volume...It was doing double that in the days after US election.

"The Mexicans also want a strong border to stop the drug cartels from getting weapons from the US."

Pah. You don't get anywhere in Mexican politics without at least tacit approval from the cartels, they have penetrated EVERYTHING.

VOD should change their logo to the Hindenburg

Ouch here we go

Still in auction? Initially flashed -5% with 0 volume then reverted.

"However this stock is already beaten down. It's valued at 25% of what it would be under normal circumstances"

What's even more ridiculous is that for most of 2022 post-invasion, FXPO was still trading at 120-180p.

"Still raking in more yearly FCF than market cap."

Even by ramping standards, that is a terrible lie...

"1st target 375p ish/380p?"

Chance would be a fine thing! It wasn't that long ago that 475p was considered a little underwhelming.

Bigsmoke, I'm not sure there's much in yesterday's RNS which would make shorts scramble to cover.

"why is our FCF all of a sudden vanishing, and our EIG Chairman has continuously been selling"

If their $1bn FCF forecast is unlevered, then capex on the new Wintershall assets ought to be the prime culprit. If that figure is levered FCF, then it could be both capex and new debt repayments post-acquisition which are gobbling up the cash flow.

Either way, to go from generating $2bn of FCF in 2022, then $1bn in 2023 whilst being nearly debt-free to this state of affairs cannot be sugarcoated. Unless there's some golden egg to be uncovered, it's a **** deal and Mr. Market has punished them for it.

Who needs John Betjeman eh?

Bugsy, you were saying that in the 40s...

"“Inorganic growth” meaning mergers and takeovers."

AKA lowball takeover of TLW 😞

Yes, it's the cool US GDP Q4 print that's triggered algo buying. Other PM miners are up similarly albeit on low volume too, hopefully it continues.

Nitro, you've changed your tune!

"Maybe the market fully understands the value and this is what it prices it at."

Tullow is a perfect example of where the longer holders have clung onto a losing stock, the greater the delusion becomes that it will eventually recover.

I've held for less than a year with a 23p average now, but a move below that multiyear low (18p level) and I'm out. Not because I think it might face imminent liquidity problems, but because volume (just a million quid a day on average) and interest in the stock is so low that there's no discernible, solid support. They will simply take it as low as they want for a lowball takeover.

Retec, did you read the RNS? We've discussed the FCF guidance quite extensively already on here.

Lochnagary, the Germans haven't lost anything they've made out like bandits!

For investors who had no exposure this morning nor any emotional attachment to Tullow, was there anything in this report which would make you want to jump in now for anything other than a quick trade?

Report was solid if unremarkable, and the preceding share price drop was far from justified. If they pull this into red for new multiyear lows, then there's something else afoot re M&A.