Member Info for fleccy

unless the us invades iran, like they did with iraq, this whole episode will be a waste of time, and even then in 10 or 20 years the middle east will still be in chaos. they can kill most of the iranian leadership, but they'll just be replaced and nothing will change, except that what remains of the nuclear program will likely be reinstated. if iran survive they'll just move everything further underground, dig in and go for round 2,3, 4 or whatever. turkey, saudi and others wont admit it, but they despise israel as much as iran. this merry go round will just keep going around and israel are generating more hatred by the day. the israeli's have proved themselves to be a brutal regime, you only have to look at gaza and the way they treat the palestinians in the west bank. israel is an openly ****** state who operate apartheid and ethnic cleansing, if the us didn't have their back they'd be lumped into the sin bin along with other bad states.

"You are 100% right if you follow the in-logic of posters who lack the imagination to see it"

I assume you've never heard of facilities management companies either?

"Openreach consists of a workforce nothing else so why would anyone buy it"

The value is in the maintenance and management contracts. As an example look at Mitie, they don't own the equipment they manage facilities, install, service and maintain, without owning the facilities they manage. Arguably an Openreach free of BT could bid to manage other Networks, like the various Altnets.

🥱😴💤

It's pretty clear that they'll free themselves of the remaining redundant exchanges as soon as the the 30 year Telereal agreement allows them to, so around 2031. If it was me, I'd empty the exchanges as the 2031 date approaches and be rid of them as soon as possible after that, I suspect that's what BT will do.

"Government & competitors have already introduced a two year delay for TDM switch off. Initially scheduled and planned for end of 2025"

It wasn't the competition that forced BT to push back the PSTN switch off just over a year, apparently there were a number of reasons.

https://thedigitalgroup.co.uk/why-is-the-big-bt-switch-off-delayed/

Aus I'm not sure where you get 2040 from, in reference to the Exchange closure program, this is what Openreach said:

"This will be a major undertaking with several million services to be migrated, and the importance of ensuring vulnerable customers and the UK’s Critical National Infrastructure providers are protected along the way. So we’re planning it in stages – with the first 103 exchanges to close by December 2030. These have some of the highest running costs so there’s a clear advantage in targeting them first. Most of the remaining 4,500 exchanges will likely follow in the early 2030s"

https://www.openreach.com/news/the-final-call-for-the-traditional-telephone-exchange/

Note the early 2030's mention, the reason they have to wait until 2031 is due to the terms of the agreement signed in 2001:

"Under the terms of the 30-year agreement, to be completed on or before 14 December, Telereal will provide accommodation and estates management services for BT"

"The properties have been split into two groups. The Specialised Estate includes telephone exchanges and technical buildings, and accounts for 75 per cent of the total estate"

https://www.building.co.uk/corporate-real-estate-telereal-closes-deal-to-manage-bt-properties/1014242.article#:~:text=Telereal%2C%20the%20joint%20venture%20between%20Land%20Securities,for%20the%20%C2%A32.38bn%20sale%20and%20leaseback%20of

"On June 12, BT announced that it had entered into a legal agreement for the sale of its UK property portfolio to Telereal Holdings Limited, the transaction then principally conditional on the funding of Telereal and the finalisation of the terms of the transaction documentation. BT Affinitis is responsible for BT's property estate and has led the transaction for BT. BT retains exclusive control of the operational properties and the freehold on these properties reverts to BT in 30 years"

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/bt-group--bt.a/re-contract-/332703

There's nothing that the competition, or OFCOM, can do to force BT to renew the leases on Exchanges BT no longer require. The decision is based on a get out clause on completion of leasehold contract and is a commercial decision for BT alone.

"If BT succeeds in delivering the obvious, it won’t get there in one direct route. The combinations of competition & what that competition will do to thwart best laid plans should be a constant discussion on this page"

I'm not sure what you're getting at Aus, BT have been really clear on their plan; I don't see anything the competition does altering said plan, even if the Altnets are successful in poaching a good percentage of Openreach's business. BT have said they are going to pass 25 million premises by the end of 2026, possibly 30 million by 2030, and complete the PSTN switch off in January 2027; Competition wont affect any of those as they appear to be set in stone. BT have also stated that they'll complete their exchange closure program soon after 2031, coinciding with the 30 year reappraisal of the Telereal Trillium leaseback agreement. BT will likely empty the redundant exchanges over the next 6 years and unload them rapidly post 2031.

Aus I'd be interested to know how competition may thwart BT's best laid plans?

"Garonne, my feeling is the Vodafone share price will stay suppressed or make little gains until after the buybacks are completed in about a years time"

I actually agree Rob, it feels like the market is giving Vodafone a leg up by holding down the share price. I've always considered Vodafone to be a hedge fund who owns Telecom assets 😉

"Although my personal opinion is I would have liked BT to have made a success of new ventures, TV, Charging etc etc which I see a missed opportunities and failures"

I would have agreed with you a couple of years ago, but things have changed and you have to adapt. You mention TV, but the likes of streaming content providers Netflix, Disney, Prime, etc have turned the sector upside down. Sky are part of Comcast, but it's highly likely they're being impacted directly by the changing environment and they also have to contend with the likes of Freely and Freesat, while Freesat is still a thing. The streamers are having to spend Billions on content provision, which could be compared to a running tap. BT probably saw the writing on the wall and sensibly decided to dip out of the sector.

On the EV side of things many EV owners home charge overnight, using tariff's like Octopus Go and have no requirement to use on street charges. EV adoption is far from mainstream and probably wont be for another decade.

Egg is operating in a highly competitive environment, with companies like Octopus and many other's in the space. We have Solar PV, Battery and a heat pump, so I have some insight. We haven't, as yet, got an EV and wont buy one until the wheels fall off our trusty diesel car.

I'm happy to look at and discuss any risk associated with BT and the competition, but I've stated on many occasion that I view BT as a cost cutting and efficiency play, leading to growth in bottom line Net Income and Cash Flow. There are risks involved with any investment, you pay your money and take your chances.

Larry, Altice sold their holdings to Bharti in two tranches, 9.99% in Aug 24 and the rest in Nov 24

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/bt/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1470&newsid=1885915

Altice show as 0 shares held since Nov 24

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/bt/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1470&newsid=1885924

You missed a bit

As far as the US is concerned, "Total collapse is imminent", is what you meant to say. 🥱

I'll be very surprised if anyone on the plane escaped with their life, the plane was likely fully fueled.

https://news.sky.com/story/moments-before-air-india-plane-crash-13382583

"think calling him pathetic (which is undeniable fact) was very restrained"

BT's share price showing signs of going ballistic must be really upsetting for you, take a chill pill and enjoy the ride 🚀

I'm invested in both BT and Vodafone, but BT is by far our largest investment. I topped up our Vodafone holdings the other day, to bring down our average price per share. Vodafone is very undervalued.

Up over 22% in the last 6 months

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?comparison&window=6M

"Honestly pathetic to think everyone has to jump on your band rose tinted band wagon"

I don't own any Rose tinted spectacles, I've telegraphed the same investment case for BT for at least 5 years. In my opinion BT is a cost cutting play with growth in the bottom line due to the move to FTTP and core network convergence. BT will become much leaner with the PSTN switch off, Exchange closure program and reduction in workforce. BT could already price the competition out the market, should they be allowed to, the only thing stopping them is OFCOM. Once BT reduces CAPEX, over the coming years, much of the competition will really struggle to compete should BT decide to drop the prices of their retail offerings. Altnets are already struggling, arguably CityFibre made the wrong choice to build their own ducts, while companies like Netomnia possibly made the correct choice in choosing to use Openreach PIA. Telecoms is all about scale, the Altnets are struggling to achieve critical mass.

"That’s a fair view but one that says Sell…..are you still holding?"

"Expat - are you arguing BT is more expensive than TT as a reason to sell?"

I think Expat was referring to any BT shares you may or may not hold. Judging by the narrative you're pushing, my guess is you're not currently holding any BT stock.

Aus, Plusnet is BT's value brand. What would stop BT taking over TalkTalk Openreach customers using the Plusnet brand? You're suggesting that all the TalkTalk Openreach hosted customers would move to an Altnet, in my opinion that's highly unlikely.

It appears the market disagrees with your point of view, going off BT's price increasing on the back of yesterdays press release. TalkTalk won't have the money to migrate customers onto Altnets, since they already appear to be barely hanging on by their financial fingertips. Moving customers onto a different provider requires customer consent, Engineer attendance, interconnect agreements, billing, infrastructure, etc, etc; Moving a customer onto a different platform isn't an easy feat and can be expensive. If Sky or someone else takes over the Openreach connected customer base, they'll still be liable to cover the bills owed to Openreach, the same applies to the administrator if TalkTalk goes into administration.

I can't imagine any other company would bail out TalkTalk when they can just sit back, watch them fail and make any move once they go into administration. Incidentally as far competition concerns, any regulatory objections aimed at BT would equally apply to Sky, VMO2 and possibly companies like Zen too. As far as taking over the customers, obviously BT could migrate the Openreach customers faster and cheaper than all other providers.