Member Info for fleccy

"This change needs to be investigated by going through market dynamics in light of COVID impacts and the competition.
Just like Altice did with its huge passive investment, putting money in BT makes sense at this juncture.
Some COVID-related risks persist as to the Enterprise segment, but leading market share in broadband and the better EBITDA obtainable through Openreach are strong positives.
A look at EBITDA metrics do suggest that BT is significantly undervalued despite its recent rise."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435874-british-telecom-the-upside-should-continue

Markets are taking a hammering at the moment, BT with its higher Beta is slightly worse than others, and does appear to be driven by the macro environment. If the markets turn, then I'm guessing BT's price to turn sharply too, it will be really interesting to watch if BT turns independent of the market direction.

"My main concern going into next week, is pondering if Drahi truly has now ceased buying, whether that means the SP can continue at the exact same rate of growth without his buying power"

I recently pasted a section of the FCA handbook into one of my posts, detailing some of the rules around building holdings directly, or indirectly. If Drahi had been driving the growth in the share price since since the 120's, where Vodafone is still languishing, where were the notifications?
I actually believe Vodafone's share price is currently being manipulated down, to control the price while Vodafone is in the midst of their Mandatory Convertible Bond & Share buyback program. I'm not suggesting Vodafone are responsible, I believe it's vested interest market participants gaming the stock, of course this is just my own personal opinion.
With trillions in spare cash, just floating in the ether, I believe that any stock can be manipulated either way, so I just pick stocks that I think are safe no matter which way they head. I don't believe that large holdings of cash are the place to be, as the printing machines are running at full tilt so I like to pitch my tent in assets I trust, BT being one of them.
In the US it's a stock market bubble, the UK is arguably in the middle of a property bubble, there's the Crypto bubble, and it's all a symptom of the cash floating around the system. What the market fears most is Fiscal Tightening, due to an increase in inflation, and it isn't hard to see why.

"The main hearing of the CPO Application is listed for 24 June 2021, with a time estimate of two days. This will take place as a [REMOTE] [LIVESTREAM] case event."

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/13817721-justin-le-patourel

"So next week I plump for a continuation in the pullback. Maximum downside? Mid 180's - then back to business."

That's a brave call Velo. In all honesty I haven't got a clue what will happen with BT's share price next week, but BT was caught up in a Macro move on Friday, and has a slightly higher Beta than many other similarly affected stocks. My personal view, in the absence of anything directly associated, is that BT will go with the flow of the market. If the FTSE goes up, then I suspect BT will outperform, but it's not so clear cut in the downward direction. As I said previously, the narrative has changed, and since analysts/market participants are herd animals, BT could have a lot more fuel in the tank. Much will depend on what the big players want, and how much of BT they've hovered up, and where they see the potential to push the price upward imo. As other's have mentioned, the Royal Mail has massively outperformed since Apr 2020, and is a good example of Narrative reversal in the current investment landscape. You will probably disagree with me, but I think the game is heavily rigged, with regulation skewed in favour of the big players who control the shadow/Dark alternative market world.
It doesn't bother me that Drahi can stealthily pick up 12% of BT without anyone knowing, but it would have bothered me had I bought into the negative narrative and sold my BT stock at the lows, instead of topping up as I did. Two of my neighbours have recently invested in Bitcoin; They may make money, but the most likely scenario is that they wont. I find it strange that intelligent individuals would invest in something I perceive has having no intrinsic value, especially when they could have invested in BT at £1, but they are reading the book and immersed themselves in the narrative. I've mention narrative quite a few times in this post, because I believe the current investing universe is more about fiction than fact.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiOueLQ4qHxAhULA2MBHfrQBAwQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&window=5Y&comparison=INDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC%2CINDEXFTSE%3AUKX%2CINDEXDB%3ADAX

"Not so confident about the 'resuming next week' line, as observing these for some years and as often as not, it can take a full week to work through on those stocks affected - seemingly out of the blue.
But due to BT's strength, I'm easily persuaded and prepared to give ground on that one :)"

Velo, the way BT's been climbing the most likely scenario will be similar to mid May.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=1937898192&format=interactive

It would have been nice to end the week above £2, but up 4% on the week and 16% over a month, not bad, not too bad at all.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/548ccbf2-1df6-4482-a3e0-f4dc79983e2e

"just gave back what we have gained yesterday ,"

Not just BT suffering today, look at Lloyds and Vod. FTSE currently down 1.76% too. It's just one of those days, i'm afraid.

"We are truly living in a surreal world, where fantasies and lies are praised and rewarded, whereby the pursuit of reality and the truth is punished and discouraged."

Hahaha. have you been reading my mind?

"I'm not 100% sure Velo, although BT does still maintain a listing on the US over the counter (OTC) market."
"I think this might mean that 5% threshold applies."

I think BT is the issuer, and as BT is a UK entity the 3% rule applies.

"One thing is for sure, he’s not straightforward, plain and simple, if we are reading this correctly Drahi seems to be a bit of a modern day shyster."

I wouldn't use those words. I haven't got an issue with him building his stake, but the current UK stock notification rules appear inadequate. What's the point in having notification rules, if they're easily avoided? Accumulating 1.2 Billion shares isn't something you do in two days.

Just to add, BT shares are now only traded on the FTSE, since delisting from the NYSE. Altice UK holds the stock, so wouldn't the 3, 4. 5,...% rule apply in this case?
Where was the reporting as the stake was accumulated?

"- Yeah :) they put it in after both casa and I read only the 2 RNS's. We're innocent of all charges."

The FCA say:

"A person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights he holds as shareholder or holds or is deemed to hold through his direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1R (1) (or a combination of such holdings) if the percentage of those voting rights:

(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R; or
(2) reaches, exceeds or falls below an applicable threshold in (1) as a result of events changing the breakdown of voting rights and on the basis of information disclosed by the issuer in accordance with DTR 5.6.1 Rand DTR 5.6.1A R;
and in the case of an issuer which is not incorporated in the United Kingdom a notification under (2) must be made on the basis of equivalent events and disclosed information."

If Drahi had tried to obtain 12+% in one go it would have really pushed the share price up, so how did he get around the 3% rule since indirect holdings are also notifiable:

"A person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights he holds as shareholder or holds or is deemed to hold through his direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1R (1) (or a combination of such holdings) if the percentage of those voting rights:"

The price is taking a bit of a knock today. I just reassure myself by looking at the 6 month chart.
Nuri, well done on a decent profit, although my personal view is that BT has considerably more upside potential.

Grant, maybe the press should have read my posts ;-)

"Everyone seemingly changing their tune now. no one was calling BT quality when it was trading at a pound."

Really?

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/fleccy/?page=52

"fleccy
Posted in: BT.A
Posts: 5,980
Price: 100.60
No Opinion
RE: Dying brand05 Nov 2020 11:55
Something else to consider. Although I believe BT is being pushed down, the Telecom sector in general is also getting hammered. Vodafone was in the 230's in Jan 2018 and is also close to £1 today. BT has been affected by various different forces, contributing to the current undervaluation. Everyone has their own investment strategies, some can't live with sitting on a paper loss, other's day trade in and out irrespective of price direction. Personally, I'll sit on my paper losses until they come good, as I can't see any better stocks to bet on in the current environment. Why move out of an investment in an undervalued financially sound company, and risk an investment in a fair valued, or overvalued company, which may already be peaking?"

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/fleccy/?page=54

"fleccy
Posted in: BT.A
Posts: 5,980
Price: 100.70
No Opinion
RE: Trdg under quid now30 Oct 2020 08:23
"Although a contradiction could be the new clean slate employee with no previous knowledge could be the fresh eyes the company needs! What do I know as an ex-BT employee now investing in BT haha!"

I've looked at the new GPON hierarchy and it looks p155 easy to maintain, with 32 customers per OLT port with passive optical splitter/combiners between the OLT and customer ONT's. As voice will be cloud based, same as data, everything will use the same equipment, so massive reduction in costs and power usage.
All the current Telephone Exchanges will be gone,
All the copper related products, gone.
Central office battery requirements, gone.
The efficiencies will mean a lot less Engineers, as they'll only require specialist IP and DWDM Network Engineering roles, and Engineers who do the external repairs. The Engineers working on the external physical network will also be trained to work on residential ONT replacement too, would be my guess.
Overall, BT will require less Engineers, less buildings, less power usage, converged communications so less Equipment, easier maintenance with a simplified hierarchy, etc, etc, etc.
Easily explains why BT are forecasting £2 Billion annual cost saving from 2025 onward.
I would also hope BT are using the FTTP rollout to take account of the requirement for blanket coverage of smaller 5G Cells.

"I must admit that reading your comments gave me confidence at a very low point when the BT share price was down at 90p, to hold my nerve and that the recovery will come."

BT's price recovery was obvious to me, which is why I topped up at 106p and 112p.

Can probably see what I've been saying for the last year:

Passive optical network virtually eliminating the need for powered street cabs.
Massive reduction in lease liabilities over the next 10 years
Fleet moving to EV
£2 Billion annual cost saving from 2025

Altnets lacking scale, which will stress their operating models
VM network still based on DOCSIS, so not as efficient/upgradeable as BT's PON
BT's assets are underestimated by the market
Etc, etc , etc.

"Will egocentric Draghi stand over by the chair where the DT representative is sitting and do a Sheldon from B/Bang Theory by ordering him: "You're in my spot"."

When did super Mario get involved with BT, that guy gets everywhere; His Excellency Knight Grand Cross OMRI, President of the ECB, then Italian Prime Minister. and now influencing BT's board, the guy is truly omnipotent.