Member Info for fleccy

This comes back to the previous conversations around Drahi's 12% holding. What chance do retail holders have to judge a stocks strength, when big players can build massive stakes without moving the dial significantly? Some may disagree, but the visibility afforded by the big players, in conjunction with algo's, can allow them to manipulate prices up or down, while they trade in the dark.

There was another off book trade yesterday, for over £2 million. The two off book trades in themselves aren't significant, but if lots of high value trades go through over a period of time then it's a good guess that something's happening.

It went through as Off Book with the Ticker ECEU.

It's the lawyer representing Patourel this morning, and she'll be continuing this afternoon. She's been presenting the case previously described in the press, but with more detail. I think BT's Lawyers will argue against tomorrow. They are saying that BT has treated customers unfairly, set against a 2009 benchmark price which they say is the fair competitive price. What I can't understand is why they claim there's a case, BT had competition from other providers including mobile sim only deals, which were considerably cheaper. There was other providers with better deals than BT, i's up to customers to search out the best deals. Sky were about to put my bill up to £70 a month, so I threatened to go to BT and negotiated a new package at £41 a month, which has more or less the same content as my old package. If there are cheaper alternatives on the market, how can BT's pricing be presented as uncompetitive?

"I asked why do people sell now at 126+p when they could sell their shares at nearly 132p yesterday!"

Because they don't know what todays price action will be, how would they know whether markets would fly today nullifying the ex dividend drop? Unless they've got a crystal ball, they wouldn't have visibility of the following day. My personal view is that anyone who sells on ex dividend day is generally misguided or desperate, if the price is underperforming.

Any one else watching the Live CPO application hearing for 381/7/7/21 Justin Le Patourel v BT Group PLC

https://teams.microsoft.com/dl/launcher/launcher.html?url=%2F_%23%2Fl%2Fmeetup-join%2F19%3Ameeting_ODE3Y2Y3NDgtYTY1YS00NzU0LTkxYTktMTRlZTA4NDI3NTVl%40thread.v2%2F0%3Fcontext%3D%257B%2522Tid%2522%3A%252228f5bd0d-2c18-49fa-80f3-743114ad22d3%2522%2C%2522Oid%2522%3A%2522b6c08a12-f70c-4e08-89e2-d3fddd74d100%2522%2C%2522IsBroadcastMeeting%2522%3Atrue%257D%26btype%3Da%26role%3Da%26anon%3Dtrue&type=meetup-join&deeplinkId=0d80e5ab-cdc8-4733-bd0a-44ce54d1ca22&directDl=true&msLaunch=true&enableMobilePage=true&suppressPrompt=true

"Almost 6p less compares to 3.825p dividend. I am really mind boggling indeed, how very illogical!! Why? Why? Why?"

It isn't written in stone that a stock will drop by more than the dividend on Ex dividend day. The current drop is around 4.5p, on a day when the telecom sector is under pressure anyway, BT is currently down over 2.5p, and Algo's will also add to the drop. Had today been a bull day, for the Telecom sector in general, then Vodafone could easily recover it's ex dividend drop. It doesn't happen very often, but I've seen it happen with various stocks, including Vodafone.

For example, on the 20 November 2012, Vodafone went ex dividend with a 3.902745 Eurocent Dividend. The close on the 19th November 2012 was 200.62p, and the close on the 20th November 2012 was 202.87, with a High of 203.97p. Anyone selling near the High on the 20th November could potentially have benefited from the Dividend and another 3p profit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNX7OL8NbmdxLNu1tQ_FXsh4uZEvaf4OegctK7jUEi3p6PN6FUOkziBdow1xTk74Z04ATTqXQavJZa/pubchart?oid=1937898192&format=interactive

Nothing is written in stone

Does anyone have any opinion on the Geopolitical direction, and the effect on the Chinese/Hong Kong investment landscape?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57386625

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/24/hong-kong-apple-daily-queue-final-edition-newspaper

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3709394-us-to-block-some-solar-products-from-chinas-xinjiang-region-bloomberg

The rhetoric from the US and CCP suggests that relations are on a downward trajectory. There's also a lot of talk around Democracy alliance, and the ability of Democracies to compete against autocracies. The mood music suggests a movement toward trade wars, possibly cold wars in the future, with China and Russia under the microscope. If the US decides it suits their interest to realign the world order, then investments in certain countries could be considered high risk. Any other opinions on this?

"The reason I say vod is high risk, is because there are many risks involved in being highly geared, heavily in debt, but I think the risks are worth taking. "

Vodafone have always been heavily in debt. I don't see Vodafone as a Telecom company, more a hedge fund that owns Telecom assets. Vodafone don't mind ruthlessly shedding assets when they're viewed as "non core". Even though India has been a disaster, they've restructured the asset through the merger with Idea so Vodafone must see future prospects, otherwise Vodafone India would have been sold off with losses written off. Where it suits Vodafone to fully own assets, they buy them, and where it suits them to have partnerships in companies, or consortiums they do. I don't worry about my investment in Vodafone, because I don't see anything to worry about, in my opinion.

"best of luck, and lets see what happens tomorrow"

Well the share price is likely to drop by at least the dividend amount. If the markets have a really good up day, then there's a chance that the price will close around today's price. It's just what happens when company's go ex dividend.

Thought I'd look in and see what's happening. I'm not sure why anyone would describe Vodafone as a high risk gamble. They have a massive portfolio of worldwide assets and literally churn out cash from their operations. If they get into difficulty they could stop the dividend, and if things got really difficult they could sell assets to repair the balance sheet. I'm not sure why VOD is languishing around 130p, but I expect it to be at least 200p within a year or two from now, just my personal opinion.

"The stock market is in recovery, you are hardly Warren Buffett because you thought BT were going to push upwards of a £1 lol. I thought the same when I bought in at £0.98 for the first time. Good god, all last year took was having the courage to invest. Long term, you were never going to lose out"

Although I highlighted my opinion to make a point, It wasn't aimed at presenting myself as some sort of investment Guru. Back then the media didn't have a good word to say about BT, in fact I can't remember seeing any articles presenting BT in a positive light. The analysts were painting a bleak picture, and trolls were posting that BT would drop to sub 70p, even Steve Sedgwick on CNBC sneered whenever he mentioned BT. I think it's fair to say that my opinion was firmly in the contrarian group.
You did well to buy in at 98p, and I firmly agree it was a no brainer BT would double, and likely treble from there at some point. Where I disagree with you is saying it took courage to pile in, since i was certain that BT was undervalued, I also believe BT has a lot further to go from here.

This is what I stated in a post on the 5th Oct 2020, at 18:03, the share price was 100.3p.

"BT's narrative will change at some point and the market will push it in an upward direction and momentum will do the rest at some critical juncture."

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/fleccy/?page=60

BT was never a bad investment, sheeple were encouraged to believe there was something wrong. Nothings changed since last year, GPON, pension, cost savings, etc, etc, etc were all telegraphed in last years results. I feel sorry for the investors who sold on the back of the negativity, rather than topping up. What I fail to understand, is why the analysts and media couldn't see the same picture I did, they obviously need to adjust their set; BT was so clearly undervalued, you'd have to have been deaf and blind not to know it, maybe they'll realise it still has a long way to climb.

It's not something I would normally look at, but I'll take your word that the spread has effectively doubled. Not sure why it might be, but it suggests the market makers feel they can sweat more profit from the trades. Volumes don't look particularly high, so your guess is as good as mine.

""Weight training" fleccy that did make me smile, my weight training consists of trying to get my belly to stay still when I run 8-))"

No criticism from me lol, there's no right or wrong lifestyle choices. Unlike Steve, I don't judge. I do admit to being slightly obsessive about getting outdoors, and walking in the nicer places.

https://i.postimg.cc/HLS2C3wc/Poldhu-Cove.jpg

"fleccy- its controlling your life you are on here 15 hours a day thats not fun its an obsession . no harm meant."

Well, let me see what did I do yesterday. I got up in the morning, and instead of watching Good Morning Britain, I usually watch CNBC, just my watching preference. I'm fortunate enough to live next to a country park, so I tend to do country walks everyday, sometimes around 10 miles, the average around 7.5 miles. My gym membership is due to restart at the beginning of July, which means I'll be going back to the gym in the mornings, resuming weight training and swimming, I requested my Gym membership was frozen due to Covid restrictions, but from the end of this month, most mornings I will be in the gym and walking in the afternoon, weather permitting. Since we are subscribers to various media streaming platforms, as well as Sky, we have plenty of other things to fill our evenings, including going out now restrictions are dropping away.
Steve, it takes minutes to google for articles on BT & Openreach, and crafting my posts probably use up about 15, or 20 minutes for the long ones. I spend around 2 to 3 hours a day, in aggregate, looking and posting because I enjoy it, and since we all have smart phones it isn't hard to look in and post wherever you are.
If it makes you feel better, about your life Steve, to make assumptions about mine then that's fine, but your post talks more about you than me.
What do you do to fill your day Steve?

"fleccy- your investment is fine and safe maybe it is time for you to just relax and enjoy life."

Posting on here is part of the fun of investing, there is an enjoyable social side to sharing views. What makes you think it's ruining my life? Lol

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/companies/rupert-murdoch-eyes-bid-for-bt-sport-partnership/ar-AALhE0v

"Sources close to the talks suggested Dazn, which has already sealed a comparable sports broadcasting partnership with Telecom Italia, has so far shown the greatest appetite to secure a deal quickly.
BT, which is seeking to recast its involvement in sport broadcasting under consumer chief executive Marc Allera, is meanwhile said to be open to more detailed talks with Dazn’s rivals. They include ITV, which has not withdrawn from the process, and the owner of the Eurosport channel Discovery.
Mr Murdoch has entered the fray as News UK seeks new sources of growth and influence beyond his former stronghold of newspaper publishing"

"This change needs to be investigated by going through market dynamics in light of COVID impacts and the competition.
Just like Altice did with its huge passive investment, putting money in BT makes sense at this juncture.
Some COVID-related risks persist as to the Enterprise segment, but leading market share in broadband and the better EBITDA obtainable through Openreach are strong positives.
A look at EBITDA metrics do suggest that BT is significantly undervalued despite its recent rise."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435874-british-telecom-the-upside-should-continue