Member Info for fleccy

"Can you provide any qualified independant links to back this statement up Fleccy, or is it just your personal opinion again? Clearly, the market, which is the best barometer of such things, disagrees hence the valuation attributed."

Here's a link Day, you'll notice that the page states "Trading at 74.5% below our estimate of its fair value", but that is based entirely on analyst estimates, not fundamentals. You'll notice the Snowflake analysis, where everything is based on Future estimates, which is highly speculative. Disregarding the outlandish valuation given to the stock, the page also states :
"PE vs Industry: RY4C is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Global Airlines industry average.
PE vs Market: RY4C is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Irish market."
"PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate RY4C's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value."
"PB vs Industry: RY4C is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.9x) compared to the XE Airlines industry average (2.8x)."

Basically simplywallst's Future Growth figure is based entirely on analysts forecasts, which are likely based on expected increases due to the normalisation of Air traffic. Since RYA is already fully valued, against its pre pandemic valuation, I assume simplywallst's automatic calculation is factoring in Future Growth of 75.5%, against their current published price of €15.96, so their calculation is assuming a fair value of €62.52.
Since RYA's current valuation doesn't reflect the losses due to covid, which simplywallst's automatic analysis doesn't understand, their future valuation is ridiculous in my opinion.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/ie/transportation/ise-ry4c/ryanair-holdings-shares

"For the Doomster's benefit - Davy Stockbroers predict €10nett profit per passenger post 2021. Assuming Uncle Mikey realises his annual target passenger nos of 200 million results in net profit of €2billionpa. Assuming a multiple of 16/17 results in a capital value of €32/34Billion or a SP of c €31/32."

Can you supply a link to that please John? I also notice that Davy advised RYA on their €400m Equity Fundraise, so not really a vested interest eh. The analysts have pencilled in phenomenal earnings growth for Ryanair, which is pretty unbelievable looking at past performance. Ok it's a forgone conclusion that all airlines profits will increase significantly, with covid ending, but Ryanair's forward earnings estimates read like fiction, and where's the accounting for debt repayment for replacing the fleet? For example the analysts have pencilled in a future ROE of 27.3%, yet Ryanair's past earnings growth is listed as -39.7%.
If the analysts forecasts are to be believed they must be assuming a Goldilocks scenario where everything goes perfectly for RYA, with the competition just withering away. Its especially unbelievable since RYA is currently overvalued compared to the industry.

"A very inappropriate post title.Today's announcement is very shrewd"

Not really, the title was aimed at the Altnets, like CityFibre, who want to break into the wholesale market. I agree it's a shrewd move on BT/Openreach's behalf, as it applies pressure on the Altnet wholesale upstarts.

https://www.openreach.co.uk/orpg/home/products/pricing/loadProductPriceDetails.do?data=CGhm4h3lTUYC3ALXzxLGrqeDXJ5AMk7IqbbqwIROuRGrmMllOOG7b%2F12AmPFLBERe6YShZ82RgLOGLsH2e9%2Bmw%3D%3D

"Openreach has announced a special offer for its wholesale Communications Provider (CP) customers which gives them long-term price certainty on its FTTP (Fibre-to-the-Premises) technology. Openreach is seeking to drive widespread adoption of ultrafast, ultra-reliable full fibre broadband."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/openreach-announces-new-long-term-fttp-pricing-smyr9g2lwt9hh9i.html

"Easy on the eye analysis Fleccy, interesting if you look at the 5 year view both Vodafone and BT converge at the same recent point."

Yep, it highlights how much Telecoms has been beaten down, and when you consider how the FTSE has underperformed other markets, Telecom and the FTSE could have a big climb ahead of them.

"Down another 1% today, been a bad week so far down over 10p, lets see what tomorrow brings."

Nige, just look at a one year chart and everything will be back in perspective.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWxOXbur_xAhXmEWMBHf-UASUQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&comparison=INDEXFTSE%3AUKX%2CLON%3AVOD&window=1Y

"is the market reaction to comments attributed to Drahi on openreach."

I must admit, that crossed my mind too, but I don't see the market's thinking on that. Whatever happens BT will hang onto Openreach until 2026, when the FTTP and 5G Fibre to the cell infrastructure is completed. The market is showing schizophrenic tendencies if it's reacting to news like that over the short term.
It isn't like we haven't seen pullbacks like this before during the ascent, it's probably the market testing the weak.

UK stocks appear to be stumbling at the moment, with the Delta Variant mentioned a lot in the press. Apparently the current Vaccinations are effective against the Delta Variant, after two jabs have been administered. The market is supposed to be forward looking, so why isn't it looking forward to the end of July when the UK economy will fully reopen?
My personal view is, ignore the current extremely short term fog, and look at the brightening outlook as the fog clears.

CEO of BT's Consumer brands on CNBC this morning. I can't remember the last time BT had one of their big bosses on a Financial news channel.
Things are changing, with Jansen doing video interviews for the Times, Allera on CNBC, lots of positive noises in the media, do i detect a change in the narrative?

It's nothing, the FTSE's down, Vodafone's down, etc, etc. Once the markets start pricing in optimism around a full reopening, then all UK stocks will resume an upward trajectory. Short term moves are only relevant if you're desperate to sell.

"LONDON -BT’s new billionaire investor is backing the British telecoms group to go it alone, seeing no need to sell a stake in network arm Openreach or perhaps even to find a partner for its fibre roll-out, a person familiar with the situation said."

https://www.euronews.com/2021/06/28/uk-bt-group-altice-exclusive

"Good luck to all though whatever your strategy is."

Thanks compound. If you can call holding for the long term a strategy, then that's my plan lol. I haven't got a crystal ball, but I see the Telecom providers becoming must own stocks. The Tech Giants benefit from Net Neutrality rules, that prevent the Telecom companies charging extra based on the bandwidth utilised, throughout the networks when delivering content, but that could change with arguments around power usage and carbon neutrality. As I said in the previous post, it is highly probable that the current upgrades to FTTP and 5G will be the last big infrastructure upgrades for generations; Once completed the Telecom companies will print money with much lower operating costs, and the current low valuations will be a distant memory imo.

"your dish will be tracking different satellites 24 hours a day."
Indeed, lots of satellites with the potential for lots of things to go wrong.

"A geostationary orbit is a 71000 km return trip or a full 1/4 of a second."

LEO's like Starlink, are considerably closer, around 600km

I'm not a big fan of Low Earth Orbit satellites, like OneWeb and Starlink. High Altitude Platforms would be more suitable for UK rural coverage, in my opinion. I think satellites have their uses, but putting 10's of thousands of satellites in orbit could be a recipe for disaster. I'm not saying it would pose a danger to life, but a few collisions and your network could suffer catastrophic failure due to cumulative space debris. They've likely thought about it, but that doesn't stop it from happening.

https://asherkaye.medium.com/kessler-syndrome-what-happens-when-satellites-collide-1b571ca3c47e

The case against BT is based entirely on the cost reduction after Ofcom intervened. Patourel's lawyers are basically saying, Ofcom forced BT to reduce prices, so BT must have been overcharging.
BT's lawyers suggested that the analysis by Economist David Parker was too limited in scope and failed to take account of other factors. BT's lawyers also argued that should the case go forward:
The case shouldn't be run on an automatic Opt in basis, since affected users can be easily contacted to be given the option of Opting in.
Split Purchase customers should be viewed differently, as they have Internet access, and should be well capable of searching out the best alternative deals.

There was loads of case law, and previous court cases quoted, so it's anyone's guess if this will go to trial, and on what basis. Should BT eventually lose, the real winners will be the financers of the case and the Lawyers. The amount of money going to the affected customers will make little difference to them. Should BT lose, it'll be a hit, but I don't expect it will affect them in any significant way financially, and it could take years, with the case/appeals, and whatever else causes delays.
My gut feeling is that BT have done nothing wrong, and were likely going along with Ofcom's request because the particular customer type is dwindling, and PSTN gets switched off at the end of 2025 anyway. reminds me of the saying "No Good Deed Goes Unpunished"

Here's some related bedtime reading I've only glanced through:

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/102867/bt.pdf

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0025/102868/bt-annex-c.pdf

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/107321/standalone-landline-evidence.pdf

Continuation from last post:

I disagree with the negative narrative around Telecoms, what I see is an Industry reaching its technological limit, so basically unless there's some sort of breakthrough in Quantum Communication, there can't be any further significant upgrade cycles from here. FTTP network uses DWDM, and since DWDM is capable of Terabit bandwidths, any upgrade will just entail changing the kit at the ends of the Fibre. 5G will mean cells literally everywhere, with the low roundtrip delay times allowing real time IOT technologies such as driverless cars, surveillance, traffic management, control systems, etc, etc, all probably monitored by AI. 6G is just 5G for shopping centres, stadiums, etc, and will be used for highly populated areas where unobstructed line of sight is available, with possibly 1000's of users online at the same time; It will likely use the higher end of the Extremely High Frequency range, possibly tipping into the Far Infrared around 300Ghz.
My point is, that this current upgrade cycle is likely the last for 100 years, where do they go from here? Once the FTTP is in, and the 5G cell towers are built, the only thing left is a gradual evolution of the core network to support higher bandwidths required by new applications.
Since the likes of Google, Netflix , Facebook, Amazon, etc, etc are totally dependent of telecom networks for their business models, I believe that dependency isn't showing in the current Telecom valuations, but will in the future. There are many other reasons why I believe Telecoms are undervalued, but dyor and draw your own conclusions.

"I don't know a vast amount about Vodafone - my interest was piqued purely from a trading perspective"

I'm betting big on Telecom, from a retail investment perspective, as I'm heavily invested in both BT and Vodafone. I'm in them for different reasons and personally believe that they're massively undervalued. I view BT as a a local incumbent play, with massive cost saving potential with growth in the bottom line Net Income. I invested in Vodafone due to their international exposure, and the growth potential in their international businesses. The market and financial media are presenting Telecom stocks as bad investments, suggesting that the industry will be caught up in constant cycles of infrastructure spending just to stand still, so the narrative is there's no profit in Telecoms. W