Member Info for fleccy

"True, div is a joke unless you are Apple. BT needs to grow its fibre quicker to knock virgin out."

Logistics will play a part in the FTP/5G builds. There are probably Equipment and manpower constraints. It's possible that Openreach can't build any faster than they already are, no matter how much cash they may have to throw at it.

The Market Makers will limit any single day upside, It'll be interesting to watch the price going into December.

"The gross IAS 19 deficit has increased from £5.1bn at 31 March 2021 to £5.3bn at 30 September 2021. Net of deferred tax, the deficit has increased from £4.2bn at 31 March 2021 to £4.3bn at 30 September 2021.
The increase in the gross deficit of £0.2bn since 31 March 2021 mainly reflects a 29bps fall in the real discount rate, partially offset by positive asset returns and deficit contributions over the period.

"But Fleccy the Times was telling us Sky are moving to VM02 lol they surely werent just making that up"

It was mentioned, on here, that it was old news re-packaged. The article was immediately followed by a big dip in the share price, probably as part of a big market vested interest play imo.

"Record Openreach FTTP build in Q2 and footprint now at almost 6m; expected average build costs lowered to £250-£350 per premises passed
Openreach delivered strongest ever H1 for repairs on time at 87.1%, with highest proportion of customers back in service within SLA
Consumer and Enterprise have now connected over 1m homes and businesses to FTTP Growth in fixed and broadband ARPC from Q1 into Q2 due to our convergence strategy and CPI+ price rise
5G ready customer base over 5.2m
Consumer churn remaining near record lows resulting from strong customer focus"

"We are continuing discussions regarding the future of BT Sport."

"Brought forward FY25 target of £2bn gross annualised savings to FY24 with further savings in FY25, within the expected cost of £1.3bn; Group peak capex from FY23 now expected to be £4.8bn, down from £5bn previously"

"Ten communication providers including Sky and TalkTalk signed up to Equinox, Openreach's national long-term FTTP pricing offer"

"Over 53% of bets are indicating a price over 200p, with more than 51% of those betting on more than 220p. Over 34% are betting on a price over170p."

Putting it another way, over 87% of options are betting that the price will be over 170p by the 17th Dec.

The market professionals seem to think the BT share price will be above 200p by the 17th December 2021.

Over 53% of bets are indicating a price over 200p, with more than 51% of those betting on more than 220p. Over 34% are betting on a price over170p.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSUQQQPZMeuUOE4F4llxO-OXL8aIQ2FTQRsVVuVOE01OxgOkjc686yeuQj-3P0WXwRj_tylUCv57_AI/pubchart?oid=685554836&format=interactive

"Good for them, stick it to the brexit ******s"

Brexit is the best thing this country has done in years, the country was heading in the wrong direction, and everyone living here could see it. I don't just blame the EU, I blame previous UK Governments who lazily allowed the markets to shift any manufacturing out of the UK, with the best remaining jobs appearing in the Service and Finance industries.
When I left school many decades ago, there were still abundant apprenticeships in Engineering and Chemical Industries, but that wasn't too many years after membership of the EU; At the time I was offered multiple apprenticeships, some in the chemical industry, but I chose Telecoms in the end. A friend, who left school with few qualifications, found a Toolmaking apprenticeship and went on to become a Toolmaker at the end of his apprenticeship, earning good money.
Fast forward to now, most components are imported with most of the component manufacturing offshored, so non academic kids leaving school with few qualifications have few choices other than McDonalds, or Costa Coffee.
I voted for Brexit because I didn't like the direction of the country, and sometimes you have to break something to fix it. I don't care about the short term pain, if it leads to skilled Engineering jobs eventually returning to the UK. If you're heading in the wrong direction, then you either turn around, or find a new route.

Not sure why any current long term holder would worry about the share price dropping, since it's only a number until you sell. The low share price is an opportunity for anyone seeing potential, and having confidence in Vodafone's future. If Vodafone drops to £1, or less, it makes no difference to Vodafone's earnings, or long term prospects, so only relevant to short term traders. My average price per share is around 150p, and I have over 60,000 Vodafone shares, but I'm not in the slightest bit worried.

"I posted this on 13th October - has this Option expired /been taken up? You dont list it"

To be honest Ally, I don't know anything about options trading, other than a Call option is an option to buy where investors pay a deposit (Premium), betting on the price rising so bullish, and if the price isn't reached they lose their Premium.
A Put option is an option to sell, and is hedge against the price falling , so likened to an insurance policy.
I am aware of the Morgan Stanley Call Option, but I have no idea if that is in anyway related to the Eurex Options.

"seen the December Call contracts appearing at 200p ? !!"

The largest open interest is 30,000 at 220p, and then 20,025 at 170p. I can see the 801 traded contracts at 200p, but I'm not sure how many shares are involved in a traded contract. The 801 traded contracts are just added to the Open interest Option totals. I have no idea how many shares are involved, but the Call Option total is over 13 times higher than the Put option total, so It looks as though the professionals are betting BT's share price will be heading higher.

"And as opposed to Elon Musk's Starlink, OneWeb isn't targeting consumers, but governments and telecoms companies instead.
With some luck, it looks like. OneWeb has also announced this week a $200 million joint venture with Saudi Arabia, to provide the connectivity for a planned new "smart city" in the country's northwest, backed by the country's sovereign wealth fund.
Another new tie-up is to offer low-earth orbit connectivity to the US Department of Defense, together with the defense contractor Leonardo DRS. (Leonardo is based in Arlington, Virginia, but was bought by Italian owners in 2008.)
This deal will benefit just about everything the US military touches, according to the companies: "DoD naval and maritime systems, ground combat mission command and network computing, global satellite communications and network infrastructure, avionics systems, and intelligence and security solutions," according to their statement."

https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/bt-and-oneweb-ink-shiny-satellite-broadband-deal/d/d-id/773200?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

As well as OneWeb and Starlink, Amazon has Project Kipper in the pipeline; Oops I mean Project Kuiper.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/1/22752469/amazon-project-kuiper-prototype-satellite-fcc-2022-abl-space-systems

I wouldn't bet against Amazon, but with the competition having a big head start, they may get smoked.

"Satelite broadband we had recently, but replaced with a terrestrial dish, involved 4 trips for uploads and downloads: customer dish to satellite, satellite to ISP for confirmation"

Was it a Geosynchronous satellite you were working to? Because of their altitude and distances involved, apparently you'd expect big delays in the region of 100's of milliseconds.

This isn't far behind the announcement that Starlink are in talks with Vodafone to lease spectrum.

"Elon Musk’s Starlink in talks with Vodafone for UK expansion"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/24/elon-musks-starlink-talks-vodafone-uk-expansion/

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/10/starlink-seeks-leo-satellite-spectrum-boost-from-vodafone-uk.html

I'm somewhat sceptical about long range mmwave transmission, due to weather limitations, and the fact that 1000's of satellites whizzing around the planet could one day give the Earth a mini equivalent of Saturn's rings lol.
They could possibly use multiple ground stations with very high gain phased arrays, or large dishes, for backhaul communication with the satellites, possibly alleviating the weather related issues on the high Frequency backhaul links.
I haven't paid much attention to OneWeb, with all the recent hype around Starlink. Apparently, OneWeb satellites orbit around 1200Km, so over double the altitude of Starlink satellites at 550Km, therefore OneWeb will have more latency, but less issues with line of sight, due to obstacles obstructing satellites that aren't immediately overhead.
Pythagoras gives some interesting calculations, suppose you had a OneWeb and Starlink satellite over John O Groats, both directly overhead linking to their respective customers, and both backhauling to Ground stations near lands end.

Some back of a fag packet fun calculations, using Pythagoras and Speed=Distance/Time:

OneWeb:
Distance to satellite from customer dish 1200Km
Lands End to John O Groats Distance 1,407Km
Downlink from satellite to Land End Ground station 1849Km
Total link distance customer to Ground station 1200+1849Km=3409Km
Free space one way latency for full distance 11.36ms

For Starlink:
Distance to satellite from customer dish 550Km
Lands End to John O Groats Distance 1,407Km
Downlink from satellite to Land End Ground station 1,511Km
Total link distance customer to Ground station 550+1511Km=2,061Km
Free space one way latency for full distance 6.87ms

Hopefully I haven't made any silly mistakes

So the Starlink latency is better on paper, but in real life line of sight to the nearest satellites, for the customer and Ground station would affect the latency. Other things might come into play to, like distance added for inter satellite communication, and retransmission due to noise.

This website tracks the orbits of the Starlink and OneWeb Satellites:

https://satellitemap.space/

It shows the Polar orbits of the OneWeb constellations, compared to the Starlink constellations. Starlink appear to currently have many many more satellites in orbit than OneWeb.

"The £1.30 SP included 02 at the time, thus £1.30 is not really a true reflection of the initial SP."

Don't see that as relevant, since BT would have received the cash for selling O2, the share price is what it is at a point in time. If the shares traded for 130p in 1984, then that was the price per share on the date the shares were sold.

"You're correct, just over 50% of the shares issued in 1984 at 84p"

Apologies that was a typo, should have said "You're correct, just over 50% of the shares issued in 1984 at" 130p

"Surely this should have been £1.30 in 1984?"

You're correct, just over 50% of the shares issued in 1984 at 84p

"British Telecommunications floated on the LSE 30 years ago with an offer of 3,012,000,000 ordinary shares, just over half of the total shares in issue. The offer price of 130p per share implied a market capitalisation of £7.8 billion."

https://www.lseg.com/markets-products-and-services/our-markets/london-stock-exchange/equities-markets/raising-equity-finance/market-open-ceremony/welcome-stories/bt-celebrates-30-years-listed-company

They also had a rights issue in 2002.

"Your Board announced on 10 May 2001 that BT is proposing to raise approximately »5.9 billion, net of expenses, by the issue of up to 1,975,580,052 new BT Shares at a price of 300 pence per share. The issue is being made by way of a rights issue to Qualifying Shareholders on the basis of 3 new BT Shares for every 10 existing BT Shares held at the close of business on 9 May 2001. The Issue Price of 300 pence per new BT Share represents a 47 per cent discount to the closing middle market price of 568.5 pence per BT Share on 9 May 2001"

https://www.lseg.com/markets-products-and-services/our-markets/london-stock-exchange/equities-markets/raising-equity-finance/market-open-ceremony/welcome-stories/bt-celebrates-30-years-listed-company

In the Motley Fool article he's used Google Finance to produce his figure. Since Google don't have records about Rights issues, etc, they likely do a calculation based on historic market cap, against the current shares in issue. You get the same figure in Google charts.

Date . . . . . . . . . . Close
01/07/1988 . . . . 87.51

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC7N6MlvnzAhUN_aQKHRUZBo0Q_AUoAXoECAEQAw&window=MAX

Seems Google Finance can't be relied on for historic pricing.