Member Info for fleccy

"Modern day investing (at least in the short term) has become totally distorted by Wall Street manipulators."

https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-stock-is-being-manipulated

"You can spend weeks analyzing financials, company management, and growth prospects, determine a business is fantastic, only to watch it slowly disintegrate.

Your stock just keeps dropping.

And dropping.

And eventually you sell.

A year later you check in on the stock and see that it’s doubled, tripled, or gone parabolic."

1. Your stock is disconnected from the indexes that track it.
2. Nonsense negativity on social media.
3. Price targets by random users that are far below the current price.
4. Your company is trading near its cash value.
5. Bad news shaves off more market cap than it should.
6. Your stock is red all the time for seemingly no reason.
7. Your stock is trading near its floor.
8. Every pop is being shorted.
9. High short volume, low short interest.
"10. Total confusion of fellow investors

You’re not the only one invested in this stock. Hundreds or thousands of other people just like you have done research on this company. They invested for similar reasons that you did. They see the growth potential, or they recognize how undervalued it is.

But the stock keeps dropping. You can’t figure it out, and neither can they.

If none of your fellow bullish investors can figure out a plausible reason for the stock to keep dropping day after day…then it’s probably being manipulated.

Listen to what others are saying. If they’re presenting a coherent argument for the stock’s decline, backed up by data and a reasonable thesis, that’s different.

But if your fellow investors are as bewildered as you are by the stock’s movement, then your stock is probably being manipulated by Wall Street parasites."

"After 5 hours 30 of trading - volume 2.66m shares"

Now 8.591140 Million share trades for the day. It's around about what you'd expect on Christmas Eve, when trading stops at 12:30.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vENy0k_o5Ps

"those two near term events will be the next fences to get over in the Squid Game"

I binge watched the Squid Game and I thought it was OK, but comes across as a little bit overacted in some scenes, but that could be due to dubbing/translation.

"Trades were both sells of 25m shares equating to £35m"

The sell term is misleading, I think the trades showed as a sell due to being below the Bid price, but it looks as though it was a pre-arranged negotiated price matching this mornings opening price anyway.

There were two identical off book trades, so it may potentially be the same trade listed twice, possibly by the buyer and seller. The London Stock Exchange has recorded both entries and is showing a volume of 73.355041 million shares traded for the day.
I notice that the price is 137.5p, which was todays opening price, which is unlikely to be a coincidence. Parties have likely agreed a deal price, against this morning's Open. The trades went through as an LRGS (Large in Scale Deferral).

"I suggest you read the independent BT pensions report. There was annual report that was released some time ago. Very good reading. Forget that 1b as the limit of the liability."

I've read through the Pension Teach-in, released in 2020, and the recent BTPS Triennial review, as well as interviews related to the trustees wanting to eventually fully takeover the pension scheme through a DIY buyout. The deficit goes up and down, but they are planning to use a stabiliser mechanism to ensure that surplus funds don't get trapped in the pension fund in the event of a buyout. It's pretty clear that the BTPS will be unloaded in the next 10 years, possibly considerably less than 10 years.

"This is all speculative on your behalf fleecy and has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals of the company."

It's actually Fleccy. Every investment in stocks is speculative, your posts are as speculative as mine. You could be right, BT stock could fall from here and should that happen, at a certain point, I'll top up big time and bring down my average price per share lots. Alternatively an announcement could come out of the blue, like the Drahi's RNS, and the share price could double. There are loads of companies with lots of debt and a high P/E, you're just repeating the narrative put out in the negative articles; Articles could just as easily have presented a different narrative, like talking up BT's future opportunities around IOT, FTTP, Secure communications for business, etc, etc, etc. The reason the articles don't mention BT's opportunities are purely down to a vested interest narrative. I'm invested in both Vodafone and BT, but the recent articles about VMO2's volt offerings were entirely aimed at reducing investor sentiment in BT, with no mention of the current MVNO agreement with Vodafone, so it's a good example of articles targeted at BT investor sentiment.

"This is why the market is not convinced, and this is why the share price is declining."

I won't analyse, or dispute your figures, since BT are heavily investing in infrastructure. I'll just top up as and when I see fit, since I view BT as cheap at the current price either way. Who's to say that Drahi wont announce a doubling of his investment, or some other investor shows an interest, what would that do to your analysis? How does your analysis explain the rise to 204p in a matter of months, and then subsequently dropping back, also in short order. The market could change it's mind in less than a day, all that matters to me is that I see BT as a safe investment long term, and it's currently cheap by my personal reckoning.

"The difference will be cash banked by vod with each buyback?"

Indeed, the investors in the MCB's will suffer a capital loss if they sell on maturity while the share price is depressed. On maturity if the MCB investors have any sense, they'll have to await share price recovery to avoid said capital loss.

"BT is getting bought and the lower price is great for the buyer! Even with the open secret of huge holdings by DT and Drahi, the naked short strategy is working just fine."

The combined shareholding of Drahi and DT is below 25%, watch what would happen to the share prices if an individual entity announced a 30%+ holding.
The current stock price is meaningless in BT's case; Distressed companies can be pressured through forcing the stock through the floor, but BT isn't in that category. The only way the current low price might be better for a prospective bidder, is that he could build a large holding at a lower price, but at some point he'd have to pay a big premium to buy the company.

"For those that just look at the share price. I strongly suggest looking at BT Group's enterprise Value."

Hornblower, BT's debt isn't an issue based on BT's Revenue, Net Profit, and EBITDA. Since the Enterprise value is based on the sum of the market cap and debt, it doesn't necessarily assign a value to the individual assets combining to form a company.
If a company is in a distressed state, and drowning in it's debt, it's easy pickings for vultures to move in, take over, and asset strip. Since BT isn't in a distressed state, with easily manageable debt, any takeover would need to price the assets well above the current Market Cap/Enterprise Value.
BT's financial debt is around £12.5 Billion. with around £6 Billion added for lease liabilities, totalling approximately £18.5 Billion. Any investment in FTTP/5G isn't money down the drain and adds value to the assets.
In summary, since BT isn't in a distressed state, the current Market Cap/ Enterprise value wouldn't come close valuing BT's various assets in a takeover bid. BT is worth considerably more than the current Market Cap suggests.

"Soon, Vodafone would flood the market with over a billion Vodafone shares (whatever they bought over months) to retire Convertible bonds. So, whatever Vod shares Vodafone is buying, it is to get released to market in near future.

If Vodafone is buying to stop dilution, then they have to cancel treasury shares, but they are not."

Umeed, I don't understand your interpretation of what's going on. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the situation.
I'll use rounded figures to demonstrate my understanding:

Lets say that Vodafone have 27 Billion shares in issue.
Vodafone offer an MCB, at a certain share price, for 3 Billion shares.
Vodafone then have two choices:
Buy back the shares and give the 3 Billion purchased shares from treasury, which means there will still be 27 Million shares in issue.
Create 3 Billion shares and pay in newly issued shares, meaning 30 Billion will now be issued.

Because the issue price is higher than the current price, and Vodafone can afford it, it makes more sense to buy the shares now and hand over the Treasury shares, rather than creating new shares upon maturity.

Since Vodafone are currently buying back the shares, on MCB maturity there will still be 27 Billion shares in issue, so no dilution, or am I misunderstanding it?

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/10/openreach-list-79-new-uk-areas-for-copper-phone-to-fibre-switch-tranche-6.html

“Today we’ve announced a further 79 exchanges where we plan stop selling copper products – which brings the total to more than 450 exchanges across the country, covering around four million premises. Every quarter, we’ll announce more stop sell exchanges as we continue to upgrade the UK’s digital infrastructure and build our full fibre network to 25 million homes and business by 2026,”

Just to add, the market cap is down £6.8 Billion since the 17th June, on the back of nothing substantive I can see.

Since the Telegraph article on the 3rd October, £2.133 Billion has come off BT's closing Market Cap, a fall of nearly 13.5% on the back of a couple of speculative articles.

Date.............Market Cap
01/10/2021 15834370821
04/10/2021 15096729373 (Trading Day after Sunday Telegraph article)
05/10/2021 15086761245
06/10/2021 14603307053
07/10/2021 14578386733
08/10/2021 14588354861
11/10/2021 14603307053
12/10/2021 14478705457
13/10/2021 14094932541
14/10/2021 14045091903
15/10/2021 14015187519
18/10/2021 13701191498 (Virgin O2 Volt articles)
19/10/2021 Today (Currently £13.55 Billion)

Tele2 came out with a decent set of results this morning, and is currently down 3.5%.
The Telecom Sector is getting hammered whoever the provider is. It's just a matter of waiting out the market, irrespective of whatever Ted, Red, or whoever says. I'm just going to keep topping up as and when funds are available, until such time as the sector takes an upward turn.

"Surprised if 5g included in Vods commercial agreement with VM but it is in volt"

5G is apparently included in the MVNO agreement.

"Lutz Schüler, Virgin Media CEO, said: “This agreement with Vodafone will bring a host of fantastic benefits and experiences to our customers, including 5G services in the near future. "

https://www.virginmedia.com/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/virgin-media-and-vodafone-strike-new-mobile-deal

Anyone know how the new "VOLT" offering affects the Vodafone VM MVNO agreement? The articles only mention the effect on competition with BT, but it must surely impact the Vodafone MVNO agreement too. Are VMO2, using the bundled offering to circumvent the MVNO agreement, for customers in VM franchise areas?