Member Info for fleccy

"keeping a IT system upto date cost big amounts of capex driving fast pace kit replacements."

You've just given some of the reasons why I don't worry about competition for BT. BT's billing platforms have been evolving over many years, with many of them being retired with the PSTN switch off. The wholesale side is well established and I assume works well, especially when you look at the scale of BT. Companies like Talk Talk, Sky, etc have access to their own customer connections, with BT having more the 10 years experience of offering such service.
VMO2 have never offered a wholesale service, so to enter that market they'll have to heavily invest in the systems to mimic BT's, as would CityFibre and any other provider with wholesale ambitions. The Altnets lack the scale to compete on price with BT/Openreach, and arguably VMO2, so they rely on Ofcom straightjacketing BT. As Ofcom loosens the controls on BT and true competition is unleashed, BT will really come into its own. Since BT are forecasting £2 Billion annual cost savings from 2025 onwards, the competition will always struggle to compete with BT on price.

"i think this one is sadly not good value just at the moment, will reconsider if it gets closer to the 130 area."

You say that BT isn't good value, but what metric do you base that conclusion on? P/E ratio, Net Profit,investment costs, something else?

Day, just to add and save you calculator time, overall I've invested over £165,000 in BT shares alone, with similar amounts invested in Lloyds and Vodafone. I do put my money where my mouth is.

Yep. both posts are correct, apart from a typo where I stated "£35,000 of Lloyds shares at 36p", it should have been £25,000 at 36p. The BT purchases at 106p and 112p were top ups, and I am indeed in profit on those two purchases, but overall my break even is 196p for my BT holdings. I'm not bothered about admitting sitting on paper losses, since I'm sure I'll be in profit at some point.

Obviously named by a film fan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfK8hjDxfLI

https://www.globalservices.bt.com/en/solutions/solution/threat-detection-and-management-solutions

"CityFibre isn’t the only alternative network to take on BT Openreach’s broadband network monopoly. In the UK today, there are an estimated 150 other networks. Together their investment programmes – funded by some of the world’s largest private equity houses, including KKR, Macquarie and Oaktree Capital Management – total £12bn up until 2025."

"Total network build plans represent more than double the amount of premises in the UK, meaning there will be significant overbuild between network operators"

"And while billions of foreign investment is going into laying cables, the fragmented alternative network market is struggling to execute its growth plans and deliver the consumer penetration it has promised its investors."

"While CityFibre boasts that it has struck deals with Vodafone, TalkTalk and Zen Internet to provide consumers with access to its networks, integration is taking years, leaving many consumers unable to access a full fibre connection even where the network has already been built."

"In the 1980s, independent cable companies sprung up across the country as the market was deregulated. The end result was a period of consolidation that left the UK with Virgin Media as its sole cable provider. Similar consolidation is expected in the fibre market, but it could take years and consumer interests are unlikely to prevail.

In the meantime, there is a gap in the market (and funding) for an independent player to aggregate supply and access for the consumer and ensure that the network being built is also utilised."

https://www.cityam.com/broadband-fibre-full-wifi-connectivity-britain/

Much of the vested interest articles don't even mention BT's innovations in ensuring Data is safe across physical links too.

“We are excited to be identifying new applications for our field deployable CoreSmart cable solutions and working with the BT team on the first trial in the world of this kind,"

https://www.capacitymedia.com/articles/3829594/bt-trials-quantum-comms-on-hollow-core-fibre-cable

"Good job BT are getting into security too"

BT aren't just offering managed hardware and software solutions to business customers for Cloud threats, they are offering solutions to protect backhaul Data connections using Quantum Key Distribution.

https://business.bt.com/solutions/resources/quantum-key-distribution/

"The telecom sector though now looks very oversold to me and this is capitulation point for a reversal soon imho."

There's no apparent reason for Telecoms underperforming that I can see, so it must be intentional imo. There are contradictions at play, on one side of the coin articles state that £14 Billion is set aside to facilitate Altnet builds in the UK, on the other side of the coin, HSBC and UBS would lead us to believe that Openreach is worthless on a sum of parts basis. I'm really enthusiastic about the future of Telecoms, with eventually everything connected, like self driving cars, Fridges, traffic control systems, etc,etc, etc. BT will always be a big player in the UK, and therefore a safe investment.

That one was linked to yesterday Nige, in the Deja Vu thread. Just the latest bear article from proactiveinvestors quoting UBS (probably Polo Tang). I read the articles when they came out, but take them with a pinch of salt.
I get ripped for saying long term holders have nothing to worry about when the price drops; in fact I bought £35,000 of BT split over two trades at 106p and 112p, £35,000 of Lloyds shares at 36p, and I think around £20,000 of Vod shares at 119p. On those purchases I'm currently up on those Lloyds and BT purchases, but VOD has underperformed everything. Some equate a paper loss to a real loss, but I don't worry about sitting on a paper loss at all, in fact I fret more when I'm in profit, as I start agonising whether to hold or sell. Daytrader says he bought RYA around "9", but he's only sitting on a paper gain and is therefore no better off than me, currently sitting on a paper loss. Until that sell button is pressed and the shares are converted to real cash, neither of us have a tangible loss or gain. What matters to me is having confidence in why I made investment decisions, and how safe the companies are that I invest in.

Worth watching the Video.

https://www.lightreading.com/opticalip/fttx/bt-aims-to-keep-huawei-for-fiber-until-early-2030s/d/d-id/772765

"Only 9% more to drop here & we'll be a quid a share."

Actually it's 9.206464499727619% lol

"IMO it will be more like Feb March next year, we will see"

December/January will be interesting to watch.

"Sure.....Drahi and DB both have unfinished business...so...we see what unfolds"

I don't think Drahi is looking at taking over BT, but I think he'll be looking at applying pressure to sell off a chunk of Openreach. If an RNS appears just before Christmas, or early in the New Year we'll find out.

"That must surely have been placed by a client...
maybe its to do with DB and Soft Bank.or P.E"

My guess would be Drahi, I can't imagine he isn't working away in the background. As I mentioned in a post a while back, Drahi has spoken to Government ministers, the CWU, and has employed Flint Consultancy to lobby and advise. Drahi's the most obvious to accumulate stock.

"Fleccy, any thoughts on Strike Price?"

Possibly the closing price on the 22nd July, but I'm only guessing.

"Fleccy - what percentage of issued shares does that equate to?"

4.6%, according to the RNS, but I don't understand Options trading and the various terminology like "cash settled", etc. It included in the total holding expressed in the RNS though, ie 5.022054%.

Did you notice the Holdings in Company RNS issued on the 27th July? It shows Morgan Stanley have a Call Option with an expiration Date of 17/12/2021, for 456,352,947 shares. What do you make of that?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/holdings-in-company-bc5gyu17em31ceb.html

Also remember the 53,022 Call Options from the Eurex link you posted?

https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/markets/equ/opt/BT-Group-951974

"HSBC downgraded their price target for BT from 135 to 125 today."

Just read through the HSBC downgrade, and it's based entirely on the " revelations" in the Telegraph article. No mention of Equinox, etc. It's clearly aimed at knocking the share price, imo.