Member Info for fleccy

Thanks for posting the article Larry; It makes for very interesting reading, echoing what many of us have said on here.
The Telegraph article reiterated old news packaged up as fresh, so I don't understand the market reaction, unless the article was timed and the subsequent drop was already scripted in by certain big players; It was telling that CNBC anchor Geoff Cutmore didn't know the reason for the drop, stating on the Monday morning, in so many words, that we might find out later in the day.
Much is made of the friendship between John Malone and Brian Roberts, but would either individual make strategic business decisions based on friendship alone? The article also highlights the competitive pressure points separating Sky and VMO2, with BT now moving away from content provision to focus on Telecoms, who does it make business sense for Sky to partner with? Sky are investing in new studios, and moving to an Apple type model with the introduction of Sky Glass, so what's the likelyhood of Sky/VMO2 tie up? Pretty low in my opinion.
As far as the Altnets are concerned, the small ones wont have the scale to survive in the long term; They'll either get hovered up by bigger Altnets, or the infrastructure will be taken over by Openreach if it's uneconomical to integrate the business by VMO2, or another Altnet; Anyone who thinks that integrating Altnets is simple should think again, many rural Altnets may be unappealing due to backbone and integration costs.
I could be wrong about last week's Telegraph article, in dismissing it as old speculation, but I think i'm right, time will tell.

"No full stop vodafone will never go back to 350 buy somthing else like indivior fleecy atb"

It's fleccy not fleecy, I notice some green filtered messages from posters who purposely spell my username wrong in an attempt to wind me up.

I agree £3.50 seems unlikely, but i see no reason why £2.50 isn't doable in the medium to long term.

"wil this ever reach 2 pounds"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pPofypkx-I

Here's a funny thing. as well as the Vodafone shares held in our personal share-dealing/ISA accounts, I have over 6,500 Vod shares held in an Equiniti SIP account, from my employment with Vodafone; Vodafone have just written to me saying "Your Vodafone shares could be worth"£7,xxx.xx, with paperwork asking me if I'd like to sell them, or buy more, or whatever. There's no way I'm going to sell them while VOD's share price is rock bottom, but I find it interesting that they've written to me now.

Could this mean that Telecom stocks are about to come back into favour?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pPofypkx-I

"Quite a fall recently in BT.
Manipulation ?"

A 1 year chart shows BT as outperforming DT, Orange, Telefonica, Vodafone, and even the FTSE 100, so the current drop only brings BT closer to the wider UK market performance. The Telkom sector in general appears well out of favour for no reason I can see, so whether it's a shakeout is down to personal opinion, I think the sector is in the midst of an ongoing shakeout personally.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?window=1Y&comparison=LON%3AVOD%2CBME%3ATEF%2CEPA%3AORA%2CINDEXFTSE%3AUKX

"Also section 6.2.1 of the pension valuation states that if there are disposals above a threshold BT will pay extra contributions"

If I'm reading it correctly, a disposal over 750 million would trigger a payment of one third of the net cash proceeds from the disposal, assuming there are no acquisitions. My thinking is that BT Sport would be worth around £1 Billion, but various articles put the valuation at hundreds of millions, so i'm probably over optimistic with my opinion.

It makes me wonder what the IAS 19 deficit stands at now? The agreed triennial pension deficit was £7.98 Billion, but in the 2021 Annual report BT reported the IAS 19 accounting position as £5.1bn at 31 March 2021 (£4.2bn Net of deferred tax), which is coincidentally in the same ball park as the figure quoted in the article (£4.6bn). If the IAS 19 figure has reduced in line with the quoted deficit reduction, it could be sitting around £1 Billion mark again, unless they're referring to the IAS 19 figure.

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/annual-reports/2021/bt-annual-report.pdf

"An interim assessment was carried out as at 30 June 2021. Whilst the full results of this assessment will not be available until later in 2021, initial calculations suggest the estimated Technical Provisions deficit has reduced over the Scheme year from £8bn to around £4.6bn."

https://www.btps.co.uk/MediaArchive/SchemeSite/BTPS352_BTPS_Report_and%20Accounts_August2021_V17_30Sept.pdf

"Fleccy, wouldn’t you be better off with a smart TV, which I think you said you have, and Now TV service, and chuck the sky Q then?"

My missus wouldn't let me get rid of it when the contract came up for renewal recently. I wanted to go for BT TV, but she said she likes the Sky Q service. Instead of switching we renegotiated the package and stayed with them; In some respects it's lucky we did, work to extend a gas main down our road, recently severed the Openreach cable feeding our development, and the next one along, so the internet was down for two days.

It may have some memory built into the TV as it supports live pause and rewind, unless it does it over the streaming service with the content held on servers. It's also possible that they'll allow content to be recorded in their server farm and shared as required with multiple customers, since they'd only need to record it once for anyone to view.

https://www.sky.com/glass/technical-specifications

I haven't read through the specs, but I rarely record anything on our Sky Q box these days anyway. Most of the stuff I watch is through catch up. My cheap £350 telly has USB ports, with a recording app built into the TV. I suspect the Sky Glass TV's will have USB ports, allowing content to be recorded, but I haven't looked it up so just surmising.

I'm guessing the VMO2 speculation about Sky investing in Fibre is out of the window, judging by this they're moving more toward content than Fibre delivery.

Haha, I'm not interested in 8K, since SD looks ok to me. I only buy cheap telly's, and wouldn't go above £350.

"The demand for fresh content is getting unsupportable"

I agree, I'm always trawling for content to watch, and often struggle to find anything that interests me. I think the next big thing will have to be some sort of interactive immersive VR experience.

Well nothing I was interested in there lol. I'm on Sky and will stick with the standard 50" 4K Ultra HDR TV's costing around £350, with the standard Sky Q box.

Looks like Sky have gone Apple style. I wonder how many other streaming services will start producing products associated with their streaming services.

My missus wont go for the family sharing options for watching sport, films, etc; She doesn't even like having her photo taken lol. A camera in your living room and bedroom, could be good for the Voyeurs lol.

"The KPI at the moment is the earnings per share....which the in next quarter result will be a keen watch"

Indeed, I also think rollout speed for FTTP and 5G will be keenly watched.

Watch Sky Glass, while you sit on your a55

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKbWnr-atfQ

Adding to my previous post; There's no reason for the Telecom sector underperforming other sectors, especially due to the pandemic with Telecoms among the better performers financially. We can all guess the reasons behind the stock underperformance, but the arguments about investment in 5G, FTTP, etc as the cause is weak and unbelievable really; Why is investment OK in some sectors, and bad in others? Clearly it isn't, so the weakness of Telecom Stocks is about the negative narrative pushed by the big players; I believe that the negative narrative will change, when the market illuminati decide to change it, and we'll see a rerating of the whole sector.