Member Info for fleccy

"Drahi want's Openreach, while DT maybe interested in the rest. Neither will want a bidding war. The regulator may prefer a joint bid. IMO."

OFCOM wouldn't have much to say, but I very much doubt the Government would allow the break up of BT, during the current transformation from Legacy copper to PON working. BT are financing their own roll out of FTTP, as well as subsidising Openreach's operations, enabling Openreach to provide FTTP for other operators at cost. A separation of Openreach, from BT, would create a high level of uncertainty and possible industrial action.
I do believe Openreach will eventually split off, but I don't believe it'll be feasible until the PSTN switch off and the FTTP rollout is completed, probably sometime between late 2026 to 2030. I can see why you might think a split off is the aim of Drahi, in view of his talks with ministers and the union, but I just don't see it happening now.

"Drahi has seen the value of his stake fall by £300million. Sources said his next move could be determined by the outcome of a sale of Altice’s €6billion Portuguese arm.
Bankers at Lazard have sounded out prospective bidders for his Portuguese division including Spain’s MasMovil.
Sotheby’s owner Drahi has earned a fearsome reputation after heavy cost cuts at operations in Portugal and France, where even toilet paper was rationed.
One telecoms executive said: ‘BT is a sleeping giant. If Patrick wants to buy more it probably depends on selling the Portuguese business at a good price.’
Separately, Sir Leonard Blavatnik’s DAZN is in advanced talks to buy BT’s TV sport business."

https://todayuknews.com/banking/germans-back-sleeping-giant-bt-as-mounting-debt-hits-shares/

"Having just become BT’s biggest shareholder, Altice Europe is sounding out prospective bidders including Spain’s MasMovil for its business in Portugal, according to Reuters.
Altice is seeking to “exit the country after stripping off most of the unit’s infrastructure operations,” three sources told the news agency. Altice is controlled by the French-Israeli billionaire wheeler-dealer Patrick Drahi.
Sold the silver already?
Altice pioneered 5G in Portugal and owns MEO, the largest landline operator in the country, after it bought incumbent Telecom Portugal in 2015.
Still, the €6 billion price tag Altice is allegedly touting for its Portuguese assets is seven to eight times its annual core earnings, which are all but flat, and Altice has already disposed of big chunks of its Portuguese infrastructure assets.
It sold 75% of Towers of Portugal (TOP) in 2018 to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners and Horizon Equity Partners and a 49.99% stake in its Portuguese fibre network to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners for €2.3 billion in 2019."

https://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/press-wire/15829-altice-reportedly-looking-to-offload-hollowed-out-portuguese-assets-for-6bn

Doh. Until we hear the price

"I had gathered it was a loss maker"

I'm not so sure it's currently a loss maker, apart from the possible covid impact, In the end it will come down to how much DAZN wants it, and how much BT will let it go for. DAZN may have a bigger direct footprint than BT, so may be able to stream to more users internationally. Until we here the price, everything is just a guess, including speculation in the media. Hopefully we wont have to wait until November to find out.

"I get that many people neither like Michael or RYA, that's fine, you neither are compelled to buy the shares on fly with the airline."

Hardly fractious. Just like the very low volumes of RYA shares traded daily, few people post on this board. There's DAY and the two Johns, who are RYA bulls, affectionately referring to Michael O Leary as "Uncle Mikey", shooting down anyone questioning RYA's high share price; Then there's Doug who hates RYA, and me who cannot understand the bullishly high market valuation of the Airline.
In summary you have the Worshippers, the Hater, and the questioner, divided and few in number lol.

https://www.sportspromedia.com/categories/broadcast-ott/ott-news-streaming-dazn-bt-sport-takeover-aura-nent/

https://www.rohde-schwarz.com/uk/solutions/test-and-measurement/wireless-communication/cellular-standards/6g/6g-overview_253278.html?

"Worth a read. More balanced than many."

I've been doing some reading up on 6G recently, and although there's a lot of enthusiasm for 6G Terabit communication, the Physics is severely lacking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9CpUIdpfeo

"However, practical trials have shown that state-of-the-art radio links can approach the 100 Gbps milestone only at a 1–2 m distance over fixed links without beam steerability [RLG20]. This means that taking the next 1,000x increase in link capacity from 1 Gbps to 1 Tbps in practical networks will be a far from straightforward challenge for the next 5 to 10 years, especially for wide area but even for shorter-range mobile coverage."

http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/isbn9789526228419.pdf

What they're saying there, is that they can only currently transmit/receive 100GB/s omnidirectionally over 1 to 2 Meters, longer distances require steerability/Directional Gain. Mobile Devices are omnidirectional, so big issues as you increase Frequency up the mm and upper mm wavebands. There's also issues with antenna's, semi conductors, etc, etc, so when they talk about 6G as a replacement for 5G, it's a lonnnnnnnnnnng way into the future imo. Even mobility causes issues as the Frequency increases and the Wavelength decreases. Interesting to see how they think they'll solve some of the issues, but at what infrastructure cost, and are the solutions feasible in the next 10 years?

From our (Friends?) at Proactive.

They've re-reported some of Ting Tang's comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_Q5dSbBczE

I know, but it sounds similar, and about as factual imo.

"Reacting to the report, London based analysts of UBS said the windfall from a DAZN deal for BT Sport promises some upside to BT shareholders, but cautioned that a pre-existing content sharing pact with Sky would be a complication.
Moreover, that Sky’s broadband business is the largest customer for BT’s Open Reach telecoms infrastructure unit adds another layer of possible friction."

I don't know how they think BT selling to DAZN would cause friction between Sky and Openreach, unless they slip on a wet floor or Glace Cherry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REpNTi-9oRQ&list=RDm_Q5dSbBczE&index=2

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/961328/bt-sport-in-crosshairs-as-sky-and-dazn-are-set-for-tense-saturday-fight-night-961328.html

Actually it's an article by Proactiveinvestors bhwarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNNkYRXzmvs&list=RDm_Q5dSbBczE&start_radio=1&rv=m_Q5dSbBczE

"Do you own VOD Fleccy?"

I'm as heavily invested in Vodafone as I am in BT.

Alan Oscroft underlining his Fool credentials.
Starts off Ok:
"I smell a buying opportunity"
"earnings per share for March 2021 indicates a trailing P/E of 8.4."
"By comparison, Vodafone stock is on a trailing multiple of 16, almost twice as high."

Then we get:
"Real BT share price valuation"
"BT released a first-quarter update in July, revealing net debt of £18.6bn. If we add a company’s net debt to its market cap, we get a figure known as the enterprise value."
(Market Cap is fluid, so invalid argument, I can see where this is going)

"On that basis, BT’s enterprise value P/E jumps to around 18. BT’s net debt is slightly more than the total market cap of the company. Gulp. Perhaps the BT share price is not a screaming bargain."
(Pumping the previous invalid argument, with no mention of debt carried by other companies with high P/E's).

"Oh, that ignores BT’s pension fund deficit"
" At 30 June, it stood at £8bn. To buy the company, pay off its debt, and settle the deficit, an investor would have to stump up for an effective P/E of 23"
(Totally ignores the fact that the Market Cap would increase dramatically should a takeover come into play. The deficit is on the decline, £6 Billion of the debt is Lease Liabilities. BT are looking a £1 Billion annual cost savings from 2023, increasing to £2 Billion annual cost savings from 2025)

"Still, at least BT has abandoned its bad practice of paying big dividends from cash it doesn’t have."
"Wait a minute, at the end of the last full year BT promised to resume its dividend at 7.7p per share in the current year. Oh dear. "
(Whether, or not, BT pays a dividend is irrelevant, as they obviously can afford it)

"What pains me is that I really can see the BT share price rising in the next 12 months."
(Showing his true feelings and his motive for writing the article)

"And I do think I see a buying opportunity now. I just can’t buy into BT’s debt and dividend policy"
(Contradictory, and misguided in my opinion)

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/09/22/the-bt-share-price-has-crashed-20-since-june-i-smell-a-buying-opportunity/

I'm not sure what Alan can smell, maybe his nose is too close to his @r5e

Tang is an Uber Bear as far as BT is concerned. I always read his views with great amusement, as he appears to take speculation to new levels

BT sport is a difficult one to value, as BT has split it's earnings within the Consumer Division, between Fixed and Other; Residential BT Sport subscriptions are mixed in with products/services delivered using only fixed network connectivity, including broadband, calls, line rental and TV; Whereas wholesale BT Sport customers are under Other, along with earnings from advertising, commercial and Wi-fi services.

The cost of TV programme rights, mainly relating to sport (particularly football) broadcast rights:
2018/19 £841 Million
2019/20 £870 Million
2020/21 £786 Million

Depending on how much BT has already paid for future rights, and the fact that it gives DAZN a foothold, I would think it must be worth at least £1 Billion, but it's purely a guess, and probably dependent on how much DAZN want it.
Looking at past charges, BT's sports costs would reduce by around £800 Million a year, but they'd lose whatever revenue BT Sport generates.

Totally off topic:

I keep seeing News clips saying Abattoirs wont be able to stun animals due to a CO2 shortage, what I don't understand is why they don't use Compressed Air Stun Guns. Am I missing something?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captive_bolt_pistol

This is the Volcano that has been speculated as Mega Tsunami risk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU3EEr9Ns_A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idj6fc5i-wI

From Wiki:

"2 Minutes: A 900 metres (3,000 ft) thick dome of water rises above the landslide.

5 Minutes: The dome collapses to a height of 500 metres (1,600 ft) as it advances by 50 kilometres (31 mi); additionally, wave valleys form.

10 Minutes: The landslide is now over. Waves reaching heights of 400–600 metres (1,300–2,000 ft) hit the three western Canary Islands.

15 Minutes-60 Minutes: 50–100 metres (160–330 ft) high waves hit Africa. A 500 kilometres (310 mi) wide train of waves advances across the Atlantic.[38]

3–6 Hours: The waves hit South America and Newfoundland, reaching heights of 15–20 metres (49–66 ft) and 10 metres (33 ft), respectively. Spain and England are partially protected by La Palma, thus tsunami waves there only reach 5–7 metres (16–23 ft).

9 Hours: Waves 20–25 metres (66–82 ft) approach Florida; they are not expected to grow farther as they hit the coast.

France and the Iberian Peninsula would be affected as well. Further, the authors concluded that the size of the tsunami roughly scales with the product of the landslide speed and its volume. They suggested that traces of past such tsunamis may be found in the southeastern United States, on the continental shelf, in northeast Brazil, in the Bahamas, western Africa."

Imagine what that would do to the stock markets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami_hazard

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/canary-islands-volcano-could-eruption-cause-landslide-and-mega-tsunami/MEAOBU6BPNYO7QPCIWCNOHVU7A/

Cumbre Vieja is a significant Volcano eruption, many years ago I remember reading that the Volcano could potentially cause a landslide so big that the resultant Tsunami could hit the East Coast of America.

"Geological evidence suggests that during a future eruption, Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the Island of La Palma may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, dropping 150 to 500 km³ of rock into the sea. Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km³ (150 km³) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10-25 m (3-8 m) height."

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001GeoRL..28.3397W/abstract

"In July, Nokia’s 25G PON technology was also trialled by Openreach in the UK, and Telecom Armenia launched a “25G PON ready” network, initially in Yerevan.
Powered by Nokia’s Quillion chipset – which itself reached the 100-customer milestone in May following contracts with Telefonica, KPN, Oi Brazil, and others – the 25G PON network is compatible with the earlier-generations GPON and XGS-PON."
“The new boards that we are delivering are capable of doing, in the same hardware, GPON, XGS-PON and 25G PON,” Guillén explains."

"A further selling point is that operators upgrading to 25G PON can then backhaul 5G mmWave on that fibre.
“It’s a race to always lead in innovation. We lead, we innovate, we hit the market first – hopefully – and of course we amortise our investment and that money we take to invest again in the next generation,” Guillén says."

"“We keep pushing the boundaries of physics, trying to get higher and higher speeds,” Vanhastel says.
“The fact that we do this on the same fibre, that’s a given, but we also try to make sure you can reuse the existing equipment – so that is why we looked for a way to get the 25 gig on our existing chip, so operators don’t even need to upgrade the equipment."

"With the global chip shortage expected to last well into next year, Guillén says forward planning has been key for Nokia.
“We are having continual meetings with our suppliers and with our customers and now we have agreed with our customers that they give us higher visibility into their demand,” he shares, adding that the lead times requested are now a year or more, compared with six months before the pandemic."

"Sharing that he has met more suppliers in the past six months than he has in the previous six years, Guillén adds: “We take pride in having a supply chain team that is capable of anticipating, managing and doing better than the competition, and part of the result is because of that.”"

https://www.capacitymedia.com/articles/3829528/nokias-new-foundations

Although the chip shortage appears to be causing supply issues for Telecom manufacturers, it doesn't seem to be serious.