Member Info for fleccy

Like any form of economic blackmail it might succeed in the short term, but has a kick back in the future. What happens is supply chains change going forward, storage and increased reserves are built, etc, etc. From reading the Telegraph article, it seems very short sighted of the Government to not have enough reserve capacity within the UK.
Since I've become very suspicious of any form of market hype these days, it will be a case of i'll believe it when I see it, since many of the articles released are almost Armageddon like. I find it ridiculous to believe that something like this couldn't be foreseen and planned for, although my energy provider has informed me that my energy tariffs will go up from next month, I my have to look at switching again.

"However, for my own sake, let alone fellow BT investors, you should all hope I am entirely wrong that the blame can be laid at the door of the worldwide chip shortage crisis."

It's a funny one, because it's the manufacturers that have highlighted issues, not providers. In the automotive industry it's been the car manufacturers, with the only issues raised in Telecoms being the Equipment manufacturers. Nokia did raise the chip shortage issue in March/April, but they seem to be coping as far as I can tell. Here are a couple of articles on the subject:

“It would be naive for anyone to say that this would not be a serious shortage, and most likely it will continue for another year or even two years,”

“We are in constant daily discussions with our suppliers and what makes me optimistic about the real world situation is the fact that we see that we are important to the suppliers,”

https://www.reuters.com/article/nokia-chips-idUSL4N2MM2N4

"Nokia itself, however, hasn’t been too badly affected. “We are not seeing any real shortage,” said Lundmark. “The situation is manageable, but this is a matter that requires constant attention.”"

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/nokia-ceo-says-the-global-chip-shortage-requires-constant-attention.html

As far as I can tell, currently, it's more consumer and Automotive that are impacted. I'm not sure why Automotive is particularly affected, it may be that the chips produced for vehicles are more specialised and lower volume than I.C.'s used in Telecom Network Equipments.
I would think that companies like Nokia, Ericson, Huawei, Ciena, etc, will be able to exert massive pressure on their suppliers to meet demand.

"I do not see the situation with a shortage of chips being an issue for the share price. It is a world wide problem that affects many areas of the modern world. Automotive, computing,"

That's my thinking too NDNIC, I've seen loads of articles about Automotive manufacturers being impacted, but nothing stating that Telecom providers are directly affected, apart from the articles recently linked hinting at a Telecom impact. Nokia is probably BT's biggest Equipment supplier, and the article below states:

"Nokia is navigating well through the chip shortage. The third or fourth quarter is a possible turning point. Since more suppliers are increasing output amid the shortage, Nokia is expecting higher capacity in late 2023 to 2024"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455029-what-to-do-after-nokia-breaks-down-below-6-00

Suppliers like Nokia will want to meet contractual KPI's on massive contracts, with companies like BT. Nokia may have some Force Majeure protections built into their contracts, in the event of supplier issues, but they won't want big customers looking elsewhere in the event they can't supply Equipment on time, or possibly having to offer discounts on the back of not meeting KPI's.

" BT has also crossed the... 200-day moving averages while the Relatively Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the oversold level.
And -
... should pay a close attention to the 50% retracement level at 151p as a drop below it will lead to more weakness." Remember, the trend is your friend."

It doesn't really matter to me if BT again drops down to £1, as I'm in for the long haul, and have no intention of selling my Telecom stocks until FTTP and 5g are completed; The only thing I would do under those circumstances is take the opportunity to top up with more BT, like I've just recently bought more Vodafone stock at around 115p.

Velo, this is a more likely explanation for negative market sentiment.

"In stocks, the FTSE 100 Index has failed to keep pace with the broader market rally. It’s dropped about 1% since June, while Europe 600 and S&P 500 rose more than 3%"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-k-loses-market-edge-070000206.html

I get that BT is down considerably more than 1%, but if you ignore the dramatic blip up to 205p, and subsequent decline, the FTSE100, BT and Lloyds are performing around the same. Vodafone and HSBC are both underperforming by a similar amount. The charts probably don't mean anything, but both Lloyds and HSBC aren't affected by the chip shortages,

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiq84-M7IjzAhUuQEEAHWwvAF0Q_AUoAXoECAEQAw&window=6M&comparison=LON%3ALLOY%2CLON%3AVOD%2CLON%3AHSBA

"you don't have trouble Googling Bitcoin rubbish; what's stopping you on this important sentiment change towards the telecoms industry?"

Because I enjoy googling Bitcoin rubbish, and eating Ice Cream lol

https://i.postimg.cc/N06b2SBX/Crypto.png

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just haven't see any proof of it yet. Lets see what washes out in the next couple of weeks, by which time I'm sure we'll know for sure.

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnYLP1B9/DAZN.jpg

Ok, I've just done a quick search and I can only find a couple of articles hinting at Chip shortages affecting Telecoms providers.

Apparently Openreach are charging ISP's more for G.fast Routers

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/09/openreach-uk-hike-cost-of-g-fast-broadband-modems-for-isps.html

China are struggling with 5G rollout, due to chip shortages.

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/chip-shortage-taking-its-toll-on-china-5g-rollout/d/d-id/771681

In all honesty, I can't find any articles suggesting that the big UK Telecom providers are currently impacted dramatically by the chip shortages; Retail user devices, like smartphones and home routers, seem to be taking a knock, but not Network specific Equipment; For all I know, Telecom Providers may be heavily impacted, I just can't find articles specifically suggesting that. Velo if you can find articles stating that FTTP rollouts and other Network specific products are impacted, I'll change my view and say as much.

"t's the SOLE reasonm for this big retrace in the SP since June. How did Fleccy miss it?"

Where did you read that Velo? And why would it cause a retrace, since companies like CityFibre would be more impacted. BT are making money from their existing network, irrespective of any reported shortages; Companies like CityFibre need to add customers urgently to build a revenue stream, since they are building from scratch using partner capital and debt.

"How did Fleccy miss it? Too much bl@@dy Bitcoin and Ryanair comparison posting, that's how!"

Chip shortages aren't really Engineering related, more supply issues, and there weren't any supply issues when I retired late 2019. Since I'm no longer at the sharp end, I have no idea how much truth there are to these stories, although I had seen all the recent publicity about shortages in the Automotive industries. From what I've read, Nokia are supplying lots of the OLT/ONT equipments and Openreach will have a massive contract for the supply. I can only surmise that since the rollout will be incremental over the next 5 years, they'll probably be able to resource enough access terminal Equipment to continue rollout.
As far as home routers are concerned, I have no idea what the situation is, but if Openreach are affected then all the others will be too. As you say Velo, if there is an issue, we'll probably hear about it in due course, but It wont likely affect the rollout of Fibre unless there are supply issues there too, which I doubt.
No doubt the vested interest media may try and make something of it, but we'll see what happens. Of course I can only guess, like everyone else.

I admit I didn't look at other's, although VOD came in just over 64.5 million UT, so BT's was still high at over 99 Million.

I've downloaded the data from the London Stock Exchange.

Up to 17:15 I get
Total Volume as 118.0636492 Million.

Three lots of UT
Time_________________price___volume____tradeValue____type
2021-09-17 16:35:24.........156.15....99025980....154629067.8.......UT
2021-09-17 10:15:18...........156.4........2585482........4043693.848...UT
2021-09-17.. 8:00:19...........155.75......107174...........166923.505....UT

On Exchange Volume, including UT 109.713574 Million
Off Book Volume 8.350075 Million

Largest Off book trades at 11:14, listed twice, Volume 1.179663 Million Price 156.34p

Largest on Exchange Trade was only 78,259, so the UT at 16:35 at over 99 Million is highly significant, something's going on.

Still not craving that flavour.

https://i.postimg.cc/N06b2SBX/Crypto.png

"My neighbour last week flew out to Latvia from UK for a grand ticket price of 98p ..... although I think he got stung on the return ticket price of £6.99."

The margins for Airlines are paper thin in the good times, at the moment they just seem to want to fill seats, although I think your neighbour must have got an extra special deal.
Comparing Airline costs to Telecom company costs; Once the Aircraft is purchased, it has to be maintained, fuel can be hedged although still at the mercy of the markets, and the Airlines have other costs like Airport fees, etc. Telecoms may have a cost associated with rolling out Fibre and 5G, but once the infrastructure is in place, it just prints cash month after month. RYA has a CDP Climate Change Score of B-, even IAG is currently higher at B, whereas the the Telecom companies consistently score A for CDP, and are listed as Climate Leaders. BT/Openreach are Electrifying their fleet of vehicles, so are making the right moves there, but Airlines could be targetted in the future if Carbon taxes are increased. I suspect that Airlines will never make it to a CDP of A, even with the current "Gamechanger" Aircraft, they'd likely have to move to Hydrogen to get close to a chance of that. Don't get me wrong RYA are amongst the most popular and dare I say better run Airlines. My daughter's currently in Spain and flew out on Ryanair to Alicante, she's flying back from Madrid on an Iberia flight, so RYA don't get every passenger flying.
Day, it doesn't take an accountant to see that RYA suffered during the pandemic, or the fact that purchasing 210 Aircraft with a list price of $121.6 Million wont lead to a significant increase in their debt. It isn't just RYA I don't like, I wouldn't touch any of the Airlines.

FP just to add to my previous post, are RYA now saying they're purchasing 210 737-Max Aircraft? It was only a couple of weeks ago that O Leary was saying they were too expensive.
A 737 MAX 8 list price is $121.6 Million, so 210 "gamechanger" Aircraft would cost $25.536 Billion at list prices, give it the standard 50% discount and you're still looking at over $12.5 Billion. How come the market thinks debt for BT is an issue, but not RYA, when BT's Revenue smashes RYA's out of the air. It isn't like RYA hasn't got competition either, just like BT, and RYA has been hammered by the Pandemic, whereas BT has hardly been impacted.
The truth is, it's all about narrative. RYA might be flying high now, but lets see where they both are in a couple of years time. There are lots of things that could affect RYA in years to come, like carbon taxes, moves to force EU travelers onto high speed trains, competition, etc, etc. I just don't see where the enthusiasm comes from, although RYA lay it on a bit thick to increase enthusiasm and pump up the price as much as they can.

"Think you mentioned 2 Euros at some point?."

I've never suggested 2 Euro's for Ryanair lol, I have said that I think it's well overvalued, with a massive amount of Goodwill sentiment in the share price.

"still no word on the CAPEX partner, but we are only midway through the month."

BT don't need a capex partner imo. They've already stated that they'll make £1 Billion projected cost savings from 2023, not including the super deduction, and with the £2 Billion annual cost savings from 2025, BT don't need an injection of capex from an external partner. They may bring in an external partner, perhaps it's what Drahi is angling for? but do they really need too?

"They bought C&W only for the fibre infrastructure. And in my professional opinion (given that I was once the onsite liaison for my company to C&W) that the C&W UK infrastructure wasnt very good really !"

Onsite where, in what expertise, and how much exposure did you get to the core network? I think Vodafone picked up CWW for a bargain personally, so what did they get for the money? Hmmm:

A national core backbone DWDM Network, plus Buildings, staff, NOC's, etc, etc.
An array of Corporate customers.
Various submarine cables/Landing stations in the UK, and partnership submarine capacity in Cables all over the world, as well as expertise in managing/building Submarine cable systems.
The ability to connect their remote cell sites to their own terrestrial core network.
Server farms and core cloud network
etc, etc, etc.

I could go on and on, but Vodafone got CWW for bargain basement imo.

I bought some today, just a matter of time until the share price recovers.

"Covid has caused biggest drop in life expectancy in England since PHE records began in the 1980s"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9996953/Life-expectancy-fallen-lowest-level-decade-Covid-pandemic.html

I wonder if this will affect the liabilities of Final Salary Pension schemes.

"DAZN, the sports streaming service owned by billionaire Len Blavatnik's Access Industries, is "possibly" interested in BT Sport"

It will all likely come out in the wash, no doubt they'll clean up if they succeed in their ambitions.

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnYLP1B9/DAZN.jpg

"A proper deep fat fryer?"

Nope I like my Ninja. It was the Chicken and Chips I wanted, which I followed with a bowl of Ice Cream and Flake, which satisfied another craving. No CryptoJunkieMonkey Ice cream in my Freezer, although I might create an NFT around the idea and sell it to Ben & Jerry's for a cool Million.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kz1SR50F/Crypto.png