Member Info for fleccy

"Are we looking at a minimum offer in the region of £1.80 based on rule 9 (below)?"

Haha, good one. If BT was a distressed company, on the verge of going under, that might have some chance of success. Everyone knows that BT's value is way above the current market price, so just watch the share price jump at the mere sniff of a takeover offer. As Nige stated £3 minimum, possibly a lot more dependent on circumstances. That said, I don't see a takeover of BT due to national security constraints. There's a possibility that some entities, building big holdings, could take an activist role with the aim of attempting a break up of the company.

"It’s difficult to tally it up EE was bought for £12.5 bn or £1.25/a share but EE is far more profitable now."

Actually the deal was completed on Friday 29th January 2016, and although I don't know the agreed share price, for the share allocation, BT's closing price on that day was 484.85p.
Deutsche Telekom holds 12.06% of BT, so with 9,968,127,681 in issue DT must hold around 1.2 Billion shares. Assuming they were originally valued at the closing price on the day the deal went through, they were worth around £5.828 Billion when the deal was completed. At todays closing price of 164.65p, DT are sitting on a loss of around £3.84 Billion. There'll have been dividends along the way, adding up to around 45p, or around £541 Million to DT, so if DT sold at todays price I assume they'd be down around £3.31 Billion. DT need to see a much higher valuation than the current one, otherwise they'll realise a substantial loss.

"It’s difficult to tally it up EE was bought for £12.5 bn or £1.25/a share but EE is far more profitable now."

Actually the deal was completed on Friday 29th January 2016, and although I don't know the agreed share price, for the share allocation, BT's closing price on that day was 484.85p.
Deutsche Telekom holds 12.06% of BT, so with 9,968,127,681 in issue DT must hold around 1.2 Billion shares. Assuming they were originally valued at the closing price on the day the deal went through, they were worth around £5.828 Billion when the deal was completed. At todays closing price of 164.65p, DT are sitting on a loss of around £3.84 Billion. There'll have been dividends along the way, adding up to around 45p, or around £541 Million to DT, so if DT sold at todays price I assume they'd be down around £3.31 Billion. DT need to see a much higher valuation than the current one, otherwise they'll realise a substantial loss.

Forgot to mention, any Stocks & shares ISA income wont be taxed anyway, and since you can invest £20,000 year in ISA's, many will be exempt anyway.

I assume the Dividend allowance of £2000 will remain in place, and taking into account everyone has an income tax allowance of £12,570 a year, then a married couple should be able to earn £29,140 before paying any tax whatsoever, assuming all their income comes from dividends. A 1.25% increase is hardly worth bothering about, since it only increases the basic rate tax payers dividend tax from 7.5% to 8.75%. Even for higher rate tax payers it's hardly worth bothering, since they're already paying 32.5% tax on dividends above £2000.00. The average person/married couple wont be affected by this, at all, with only a marginal impact on wealthy individuals.

"Please tell us how the £50.9b is calculated, then please tell the market makers."

Non-current assets £40.477 Billion
Current assets £10.400 Billion
Total £50.877 Billion

It's in the results.

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/2020-21/q4/q4-21-release.pdf

It's funny that the media bang on about BT's debt, which I don't see as an issue, but you only ever read positive things about VMO2; The vested interests seem to ignore the issues facing BT's competition.
This is what VMO2 say about their debt:

"We have substantial indebtedness that may have a material adverse effect on our available cash flow, our ability to obtain additional financing if necessary in the future, our flexibility in reacting to competitive and technological changes and our operations. We have a substantial amount of indebtedness. As of 30 June 2021, the outstanding principal amount of our consolidated debt, together with our lease obligations, aggregated £18.5 billion, including £2.6 billion that is classified as current on our condensed consolidated statement of financial position and £13.2 billion that is not due until 2027 or thereafter. Our ability to pay principal and interest on or to refinance the outstanding indebtedness depends upon our operating performance, which will be affected by, among other things, general economic, financial, competitive, regulatory and other factors, some of which are beyond our control. Moreover, we may not be able to refinance or redeem such debt on commercially reasonable terms, on terms acceptable to us, or at all."

What they said on the Anti Bribery Disclosure:

"Disclosure requests. O2 has been addressing a request for disclosure made by governmental authorities related to possible violations of anti-bribery laws and regulations. O2 continues to co-operate with the governmental authorities investigating this matter, which is still ongoing. Whilst it is not possible at this time to predict the full scope or duration of this matter or its eventual outcome, we consider we can make a reliable estimate of the eventual outcome, O2 was able to make a reasonable estimate of the outcome, and recorded an accrual during 2019, which is included in our statement of financial position as of 30 June 2021. Additional disclosures of the matters required by IAS 37 have not been provided as permitted by IAS 37 para 92 as the directors believe that further disclosure will be seriously prejudicial to future developments on this matter."

I glanced through the statement of financial position, but I couldn't figure out the amount of provision ("accrual") set aside for this, maybe someone else might find it?

https://news.virginmediao2.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/VMED-IFRS-Quarterly-Report-Q2-2021.pdf

"O2’s recent £31bn merger with Virgin Media makes the new company the UK’s largest network, ahead of BT and EE."

I stopped reading that article as soon as I read the opening paragraph, since when did VMO2 become larger than BT?

https://www.cityam.com/serious-fraud-office-probing-o2-bribery-allegations/

"Fleccy, I was reading about this in other media as well, they were reporting this could be an industry wide misdemeanour, so wait and see what happens if EE appears in the cross hairs of this investigation."

I saw that too. I was working for Vodafone back in 2017, so I can only speak for them, they were really assertive about ensuring Anti Bribery compliance, making sure every man and his dog did the relevant courses. I can't speak for EE, but since they're part of BT, and considering BT's regulatory constraints, I would think EE would be extremely compliant as part of BT group.

Interesting there isn't thousands of headlines about this by now. If it was EE being investigated there'd be countless headlines giving in depth analysis, with opinions about the possible fines. Yet another symptom of the twisted narratives directed at some, with other's all but ignored. The point I'm making, is that had this been EE, the controversy would be used to hammer BT's share price.
The same applies to articles about competitive investment; CityFibre look for £1 Billion investment partners, and articles flood the internet prompting the market
to immediately find a reason to hammer BT's share price.
Alas there's no profit in trashing O2, since it's privately owned with the parent owners being elsewhere. It would be nice to be proved wrong with lots of in depth articles appearing, but I suspect there wont be many unless EE and Vodafone can somehow be dragged into this.

Bribery is extremely serious under UK law. I remember having to do compulsory online courses, even though I was an Engineer and not involved in sales, basically to cover the Directors behinds.

“O2 has been addressing a request for disclosure made by governmental authorities which is related to possible violations of anti-bribery laws and regulations."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/04/fraud-office-investigates-o2-bribery-allegations/

"The crime of a commercial organisation failing to prevent bribery is punishable by an unlimited fine. In addition, a convicted individual or organisation may be subject to a confiscation order under the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002, while a company director who is convicted may be disqualified under the Company Directors Disqualification Act 1986."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bribery_Act_2010

"If not locked into to long term buy agreements how much will inflation push up this bill."

I would think the prices will be agreed, and contracts signed early on. Because of BT's mammoth size and the amount of Equipment they'll be buying, the purchase price will be heavily discounted anyway. Manufacturers will want to keep BT sweet, as they'll want to sell them more in the future, and will also look at ongoing maintenance and replacement profits. Big Telecom companies, like BT and Vodafone, lock in good prices due to their scale and purchasing power.

https://www.economywatch.com/news/bt-share-price-forecast-september-2021-time-to-buy-bt

It isn't just BT, if you look at a chart of other UK stocks, to compare against, everything is taking a hit. Check out this 1 year chart:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj1loX3pOPyAhVvMewKHey7BwQQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&comparison=LON%3AVOD%2CLON%3ALLOY%2CLON%3AHSBA%2CLON%3AULVR&window=1Y

BT and Lloyds are showing similar performance, Vodafone are underperforming, and Unilever is underperforming most.

Over the last 5 years, granted BT is the worst performer, but came close to Vodafone's performance recently, when BT went to 205p with a mere 3% comparison separating the two companies at that particular point in time. Their price performance was even closer in Nov 2018 and Jan 2019.
BT is undervalued, as is Vodafone, as is most UK listed stocks; All that's required is patience and confidence.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj1loX3pOPyAhVvMewKHey7BwQQ_AUoAXoECAEQAw&window=5Y&comparison=LON%3AVOD

Another filtered message, I wonder if it's flaidchunner, or Toffsimpleton.

Obviously affects BT's earnings outlook, not!!!

I checked to see if there's been anything further about the sale of BT Sport, or a partnership deal, and I can't find anything since June. If talks are ongoing they're being kept very quiet.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/21/rupert-murdoch-eyes-bid-bt-sport-partnership/

Apart from ITV ruling themselves out in July.

https://deadline.com/2021/07/itv-rules-out-bt-sport-channel-4-sale-1234801260/

"they may make a joint bid with Drahi getting Openreach and DT getting the rest of BT."

I've not read anywhere about Drahi currently pushing for a seat on the BOD, but he has apparently spoken to Government ministers, Ofcom, the CWU, and employed Flint Consultancy. Things may currently be quiet, but my guess is stuff will be going on in the background, maybe other big finance players will appear out of the woodwork at some point. If enough shares fall into enough activist shareholder hands, BT will be compelled to consider any requests they make, possibly even demands for votes on various things.
The rumour mill was rife last year, suggesting that Macquarie and others were in talks with BT about Openreach, so various big players are eyeing up the asset. With Du Plessi going and Crozier coming in on the 1st December, coincidently coinciding with the handcuffs come off Drahi, when his bid moratorium expires in December, it makes you wonder what will happen in the New Year.

And another green filtered message lol

https://i.postimg.cc/BQgJgCgf/filtered1.jpg

I notice someone on my Filter list said something, must be scoffappleton1, or lamechunner.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHwyMncS/filtered.jpg