Member Info for fleccy

"BT a rubbish share and always will be.Sold off to shareholders to milk them worth no more than 120p"

Haha a very inciteful post, obviously researched and backed up by detailed analysis, not!!!

Over 8 weeks since the main hearing of the CPO Application, with the Judgement still pending. Imagine the complexity of a full trial, if it's taking this long to decide whether a trial is even warranted. The issues must be massively complex with many different components and arguments. I wonder how much longer before a decision is reached.

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/13817721-justin-le-patourel

"I sometimes mention specific stocks where risk/reward looks favourable"

Being realistic, as Brexit and Covid become distant in the rear view mirror, it stands to reason that UK stocks will stage a recovery. I'm invested in three stocks, which I expect to perform well over the next 4 years. I expect Lloyds to revisit 70p, Vodafone 220p, and BT 300p. Historically I don't see those as outrageous valuations, giving me a profit of around £(6 figures) not including dividends, assuming I decide to sell at those prices.

Lloyds will be back over 50p imminently. M&S have just reported good figures, signalling a turn around in profits, after the lifting of lockdown restrictions. As more retailers report, and the economy moves onto a more normal footing, the current price will be seen as buying opportunity imo.

"financial markets are in the largest bubble he has seen in his career."

If he's talking about the US Markets, I agree, but the FTSE isn't in a Bubble.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE?comparison=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI%2CINDEXDB%3ADAX%2CINDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC%2CINDEXEURO%3APX1&window=5Y

I agree that Lloyds has likely been impacted by inflation expectations cooling. BT is still outperforming Vodafone, over the last 6 months, by over 40%, so I'm not bothered by the current drop. The biggest issue is that UK stocks are undervalued generally, in comparison to other markets. Lloyds could easily be worth over 60p, Vodafone over 160p, and BT £3 based on various metrics, and your correct that sentiment is currently determining stock valuations, but what is driving that sentiment?
As funds become available, I'm just adding in the current environment, and since I'm investing in safe Blue Chip stocks I'm 100% confident I'll rake it in when sentiment changes.

"I don't understand why is been on a decline since June this is a solid investment with alot of money getting pumped into the future. Why does it always get beat down so much ?"

It isn't just BT, it appears that the market has it in for FTSE 100 UK focused stocks. Lloyds was 50p on the 2nd June, now around 44.3p; That's 11.4% down with the lockdown now over, and dividends restarted. There's various articles speculating why the market's shunning UK stocks, some suggest Brexit as a cause, but they all say UK stocks are undervalued.

I vaguely remember that post, It highlighted my opinion that the UK Government doesn't protect home grown industry.

"So clicked on the first one and when she started analysing BT she did an advertorial for LSE saying:
and you can find out more by visiting our forums (and a picture of your name and a post flashed up on screen) where on the BT forum you will find some very learned posters, and they held on your name."

I'll have to leave the country now!!! Blushing

Haha, my real talent is investing in stocks just before they plummet.

"Highly telcoms-technical (or 'learned' as one of LSE 's videos on the homepage descibes Fleccy) so get some matchsticks to keep your eyelids open."

OMG I hope I'm not mentioned anywhere other than posts.
How dare you imply my posts are sleep material, have I ever accused you of being Rip Van Velo in response to your charting posts. Cheeky Bugg3r lol.

BHP is set to delist from the FTSE 100; Does that mean Tracker funds, and some others, will have to sell their BHP holdings and redistribute the cash amongst the other components? If that's the case, I would expect the other components to see some increase in value as funds are redistributed. It's a nice thought anyway!!!

"Adam Crozier appointed as Chairman of BT"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/adam-crozier-appointed-as-chairman-of-bt-jy8jqyxdnmrumj5.html

Maybe the dysfunctional market isn't real and we're all just participants in a simulation, which might explain some of the over/under valuations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqNZGIzPq7Y

2.35 ISPs that wish to offer FTTP will have no choice but to purchase access from Openreach in some parts of the UK, reflecting Openreach’s position as the incumbent, nationwide fixe telecoms network. In principle, this could allow Openreach to leverage its position to raise barriers to entry and expansion for altnets in those parts of the UK where infrastructure competition is feasible. In particular, it could de facto make discounts in those areas where ISPs are reliant on Openreach conditional on not using altnets in other areas. This could exclude altnets, even if ISPs find altnets more appealing than Openreach in those areas where both are present.2.36 Accordingly, and in line with the policy context set out in paragraphs 2.16-2.22, we have assessed stakeholders’ submissions that the Order Mix Targets and the forecasting requirements may discourage ISPs from using altnets.
2.37 In addition, INCA, Fern Trading and [?] submitted that the 10-year duration of the Equinox Offer is not justified.43 We do not consider that this is a self-standing competition concern. Rather, in the event that other competition concerns arise, the 10-year duration of the Equinox Offer may exacerbate them. Accordingly, we have not separately assessed the duration of the Equinox Offer."

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0032/222989/Equinox-condoc.pdf

"Ofcom’s provisional view
2.30 As discussed above, the 90 days’ notification requirement is for commercial terms where
the price or other contractual conditions are conditional on the volume and/or range of
services purchased. It is not intended to address general concerns about low wholesale
prices. In the WFTMR Statement we considered how we should ex ante regulate
Openreach’s FTTP prices. We set a price ceiling for the FTTP 40/10 ‘anchor’ product but
decided not to regulate the prices of Openreach’s higher speed products. Further, we
decided that a prohibition on geographic discounts was a simple and proportionate means
of addressing our competition concerns. Beyond this we did not impose any further ex
ante regulation on the extent to which Openreach can set low prices. Therefore, we do not
consider the level of prices would warrant assessment as part of the 90 days’ notification
process in the absence of a prima facie concern.
2.31 When setting the price ceiling for the FTTP 40/10 anchor product, we compared it with ourestimate of the price that an entrant operator would need to charge in order to recover its efficiently incurred costs.38
2.32 Under the Equinox Offer, the price for the FTTP 40/10 anchor product is set at the
regulated price ceiling, i.e. it is not discounted. Further, all other FTTP rental prices under the Equinox Offer are set at a level above this.
2.33 All prices under the Equinox Offer are therefore set at a level above our estimate of the price that an altnet would need to charge in order to recover its efficiently incurred costs.
Assessment of whether conditionality acts as a barrier to altnetentry and expansion
Introduction
2.34 Some stakeholders submitted that the conditions that ISPs must meet to qualify for discounts may create a barrier to using altnets.40 In particular:
a) The Order Mix Targets discourage ISPs from using altnets: INCA, KCOM and Fern
Trading submitted that using an altnet may jeopardise an ISP’s ability to meet the Order Mix Targets and thus benefit from discounted Openreach FTTP prices.41
b) The forecasting requirements discourage ISPs from using altnets: INCA submitted that the potential loss of discounts for ISPs that submit inaccurate forecasts discourages ISPs from using altnets.

"No surprise to see The Telegraph are also behind this article regarding BT."

They could have gone further and widened the article to include other respondents, this is what VM actually said:

"In setting a different price for NTN and non-NTN installations, the Equinox proposal:
1. Is discriminatory and therefore is in breach of SMP Condition 4 because:
a. It is geographically targeted (falling within the scope of SMP condition 4.5). We
explain why this is so in the next section; and
b. It treats as different two situations that are, in truth, the same. NTN and non-NTN
installations of new fibre connections are technically and operationally the same.
An economically efficient price would be one that reflected this similarity (and the
true economic cost of the resources needed to install a new connection).
Discriminatory conduct which unfairly favours Openreach to a material extent so
as to place the alt-nets at a competitive disadvantage is prohibited pursuant to
SMP Condition 4.2;
2. Is loyalty inducing (when viewed in conjunction with other aspects of the Equinox offer) or similarly, a pre-committed punishment mechanism for disloyalty and therefore raises concerns pursuant to SMP Condition 8.6.
There is a dynamic as well as a static policy concern here. If Ofcom permits Openreach to implement the Equinox offer as it stands, Openreach will consider that it has the green light to go further. This would be a dangerous precedent to be setting. Openreach would subsequently have a clear incentive to surgically target further discounts towards NTN scenarios so as to exacerbate the competitive disadvantage of the alt-nets. The effect will be to reduce the
incentives to continue to invest further in new gigabit-capable network infrastructure.
VMO2 submits that given that SMP conditions 4.2, 4.5 and 8.6 are engaged, Ofcom needs to signal clearly to Openreach that (i) the Equinox offer raises competition concerns that require ex ante intervention; and (ii) sets out in its provisional findings consultation the specific measures it seeks to impose on Openreach or the changes it will require Openreach to make to remove such damaging effects on competition.
The key change that Ofcom should require Openreach to make is to remove all NTN and non NTN differentiation from the terms of Equinox."

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0029/222986/VirginO2.pdf

VM/O2 just want BT/Openreach to be held down indefinitely, what they don't say is that BT are scrapping their old network and building a new network from scratch, at a cost of £15 Billion. VM have been around since 2006, with NTL being around may years before that, so they've had loads of time to compete against BT and are constantly boasting about their Gigabit service. VM had ample opportunity to pursue wholesale customers, how come they're whining now?

The others:

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-3/openreach-proposed-fttp-offer?showall=1

I expect a substantial dividend announcement on the 24th February 2022, during the Full year results. I expect they'll have a good idea of covid related losses by then.

It's not embarrassing, it's an opportunity. I topped up another 44,000 today, and I'll probably buy more on Monday if the price stays around 46p. It's a no brainer in my opinion.

Does the market even care about the latest update? Seems to me the market is focused elsewhere and is only vaguely interested in companies like BT. Currently it appears to be all about Crypto, NFT's, and Meme stocks. Companies with solid business models and infrastructure are far too boring for the new breed who think money grows on tree's, sorry I mean NFT's.

It's all about Crypto
It's all about Bitcoin
Oh yeah, Meme, Crypto and and NFT
It's all about Meme
It's all about Meme
(You know It's all about Meme)
It's all about meme Meme Meme Meme Meme
Everybody knows that it's all about Meme

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSklX1Hs324