Member Info for fleccy

"HSBC downgraded their price target for BT from 135 to 125 today."

In this topsy turvy market, multiple downgrades might be a signal to buy lol.

"UBS. - It reckons the stock is worth 130p (suprise,suprise (not) from UBS "

Proactiveinvestors appear to be affiliated with UBS in some way, as they continually pump out UBS updates on BT. On this occasion they haven't mentioned Mr Tang by name.

"Fleccy, let's hope that history repeats itself."

I think BT's in much better shape than 2009. The argument about Telecoms being a bad investment, due to constant upgrade cycles, is misleading in respect of the future. Where are the upgrade cycles once FTTP and 5G rollouts are completed? 6G is more an evolution of 5G, with long distance terabit upper MMWave communication more science fiction than fact at the moment. The Engineers and scientists can get MMWave Terabit communication working over very short distances, but heavy rain would impact any future commercial communications, and would you really need it outside of high population indoor areas? Most of the outdoor 6G applications would be at the current "5G" frequencies, below 5Ghz, since reliable commercial applications will need to be resilient to the weather.
FTTP will cope with any access network bandwidth requirements for the foreseeable distant future. The theoretical maximum bandwidth for a single mode optical Fibre is 1 Petabit per second per optical mode; So theoretically possibly to accommodate a Petabit per second, in each direction, with 1 Petabit equal to 1 Million Gigabits, or 1000 Terabits per second. Apart from upgrading hardware on either end of the Fibre, the Fibre itself will only need replacing due to Faults.
The only reason I keep repeating all this, like a stuck record, is to contradict the narrative that Telecoms will always be a bad investment because of upgrade cycles.

Any of this look familiar?

"BT released a mixed set of full year results on Thursday, with a net loss for the fourth quarter ending March 31st 2009 of £977 million, compared with a net profit of £42.6 million a year earlier."

"However, BT’s Global Services division, which manages communications systems for businesses, has been their achilles heel over the past couple of years and continues to weigh on the company."

"The pension deficit, which has been of great concern during the market downturn, came in at £4 billion gross of tax, against a market expectation of up to £8 billion. Deficit payments of £525 million have been agreed for the next three years"

"The group’s limited free cash flow has put pressure on its dividend, which was cut to 1.1p from 10.4p last year, bringing the total dividend to 6.5p in 2009, which is again better than many analysts had feared."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/4067/atheronova-4067.html

I realise that the 2009 figures aren't identical to the current ones, but the narrative is very similar; Look what happened with BT's share price over the following 6/7 years, from 2009 to 2016.

"Outer edge of Ipswich, which intself is hours drive from any major hub. BT know it was well, half the buildings there are abandoned"

Never been to Adastral Park, but it looks really up and coming around there. Obviously big plans for the area. As far as your claim that the Science Park is in decline, show us your proof?

https://www.ipswichstar.co.uk/news/housing/brightwell-lakes-housing-project-martlesham-consultation-8091938

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/suffolk-coastal-district-council-carlyle-land-and-ceg-sign-off-2445652

https://www.eastsuffolk.gov.uk/assets/Planning/Adastral-Park/CEG-Adastral-Development-Leaflet-Update-April-2017.pdf

https://www.eastsuffolk.gov.uk/planning/major-sites/adastralpark/

"Just when you thought a company couldn’t go any lower."

If you can't beat them, blackmail them. I have to say hijacking customers at the Airport Check in is really low, playing on emotion and betting existing locked in financial commitments will strong arm them into paying up.

"With profit expected to grow by 72% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for BT Group."

I'm a BT bull, but I'm not sure where they get the 72% figure from. Revenue wont increase by 72%, so maybe they're referring to increases in Net Profit and Free Cash Flow due to cost savings.

Anyone remember the recent conversations over Bitcoin & Tulips?
Looks as though Dimon has expressed his opinion again.

“I personally think that bitcoin is worthless,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-bitcoin-is-worthless.html

"Am i correct in thinking that if a company buys back tens or hundreds of millions of its own shares, then the dividend should (in theory) be easier to payout ?"

Normally yes, but Vodafone's current buybacks are related to building enough shares in treasury to prevent dilution when the MCB's mature.

"share price , so what's your predictions for this one guys, if any of you would like to take a guess ???"

Immediately following Vodafone's purchase of CWW, I purchased a chunk of VOD stock at around 160p; Soon after VOD announced the sale of their share of Verizon Wireless and I sold out around 220p. The share price did subsequently get above 250p after the 6:11 stock split in Feb 2014, so it's easy to justify a price over £2 now in my opinion. India's been a disappointment, but it's not a catastrophic issue since most of Vodafone's earnings come from elsewhere, and they still have emerging market opportunities in Africa, etc.

"I've been away to find the SP at £1.11, it was £1.30 odd when I last looked so guys & girls what have I missed?"

19p.

Was you in a coma, or on a Tropical Island? Can't have been space, unless you were on the ISC, since current space flights are less than an hour.

"This is more about the telecoms sector rather than UK / US valuations"
One isn't mutually exclusive of the other, Telecoms are getting hammered, but traderuk is also correct, since the UK is rated among the cheapest markets; You're both correct.

"most of UK stocks, a joke for years. However it has more value than US stocks, I will keep investing in the UK "

That's my feeling too.

aviduser, you should check out this link:

https://atadastral.co.uk/cluster/

"BT I sold here at 155 too much debt pension woes, lack of innovation"

I see things differently from you. I don't see the pension as an issue, since the deficit is shrinking and the Pension Trustees are looking at a DIY buyout, probably by 2030.
As far as innovation, you'll be hard pushed to find a company as innovative as BT; They are completely refreshing their network, with the PSTN switch off and a move to a Fibre/FTTP access network. BT are heavily investing in 5G and IOT, with Global IOT revenue projected to reach $1 Trillion by 2030. BT are partnering with other companies to create innovative products at their Adastral Park labs; "The Adastral Park tech cluster is made up of circa 150 companies. These companies form four distinct organisations that have their own focuses but can collaborate with each other to achieve breakthrough innovations."
As I've pointed out many times, one third of BT's debt is due to Lease Liabilities which will reduce as BT hands back properties to Telereal, during the FTTP rollout.
You can either believe the narrative pushed by certain media outlets, or actually read what BT say they're going to do. Going forward, I see massive cost savings for BT with a well diversified business covering all aspects of Telecommunications, not one trick ponies like most of the Altnets.

Looks as though it's not just BT under the cosh. Any excuse to punish UK stocks, and the market takes it. Asos is down 68% since March 2018. Asos is supposed to be among the new disruptor Stocks, so we're lead to believe. UK stocks seem as cursed as the Treasure of Cortés, where's Captain Jack Sparrow and the Black Pearl when you need them?

They featured a UK Startup company called Arrival, who are starting out making light vans. They looked really impressive and will hopefully be really successful.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/analysis-inside-arrival-%C2%A34bn-uk-start

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0010m40/click-ready-for-arrival

"t will be interesting to see if The Times article has the opposite effect as the Telegraph article"

I doubt it Nige. I do believe that BT's share price will turn upwards again in the near future, but I don't think the Times article will do it.

"These ones imo could be easily integrated back into the OR network."

I agree, the background narrative is changing, but the market doesn't seem to see that Ofcom are loosening BT's straightjacket.

This was covered in a Thread on Friday, with a link to the BTPS report that prompted the articles

https://www.btps.co.uk/MediaArchive/SchemeSite/BTPS352_BTPS_Report_and%20Accounts_August2021_V17_30Sept.pdf