Member Info for fleccy

OLeary said that Volumes didn't justify a London listing:

"Airline becomes the first major company to blame its departure on Brexit as trading falls"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-confirms-move-to-delist-from-london-stock-exchange-1.4733090

I've just compared the Volumes comparing Ryanair volumes between London and Euronext. If I've got the Dublin Ticker correct, London volumes wipe the floor with Dublin.

One month Chart comparing stacked volume in percentage terms ETR:RY4C in Red, LON:RYA in Blue.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTe2j-jeECMopmL5Sh3rnqPIIoJxRSbiSA2XZnc2zojIUNvItGclgwLYA8OH9aSEnh-qzG1lCJEEJc7/pubchart?oid=1053102254&format=interactive

"LIVE FROM CONNECTED BRITAIN 2021, LONDON: Vodafone UK and BT Group welcomed a recently-launched net neutrality review in the UK, with the latter’s CTO Howard Watson (pictured, centre) hitting out at the current environment, which he argued favoured technology giants and was foe to the mobile industry.

Both operators confirmed they would submit views to an Ofcom review of UK net neutrality rules post Brexit, which launched earlier this month, and Watson followed up on comments made by BT Group consumer CEO Marc Allera who called for rules around the area to be eased earlier this year."

https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/uk-heavyweights-call-for-net-neutrality-overhaul

The review closed on the 2nd November, but so far there are no responses showing on the webpage; I'm not sure why that is, it maybe that responses will be viewable later, assuming there were responses.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review

"I'd rather invest in usable things, I'm hoping as you all say Fibre network growth is valuable in the long-term for 20 years or more."

Since FAANG type business models are 100% dependant on Telecommunications connectivity, and are the most valuable companies on the planet, it means Telecom provider networks have an intrinsic value which isn't currently reflected in the sector pricing. Telecom providers have their hands tied under Net Neutrality rules, but that could change over time with the Telecom companies given more flexibility on charging for bandwidth usage. OFCOM are reviewing the UK's Net Neutrality Framework, which could lead to Telecom providers charging for bandwidth utilization by big service providers, who flood the networks with streaming content. The Telecom companies are subsidising the likes of YouTube, by having to constantly upgrade backbone bandwidth capability, at no cost to the service provider, that may change in the future. The upgrade to Fibre is part of the overall upgrades to cope with the ever increasing higher bandwidth services; There are good arguments for allowing the Telecom companies more charging power over big tech.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review

"I agree with that statement, but I believe there are good inflation hedges in some equities. "

Totally agree, equities beat cash hands down when it comes to inflation, especially in a low interest rate environment.
The Bitcoin Bulls, would have us believe that crypto is some sort of an inflation hedge, in the same sense that Gold is, but I don't see any value in Crypto myself; You can't go into a Jewellers and buy a Bitcoin ring, or put Bitcoin into components, or use it for connecter coatings, and I haven't seen any Dentists talking about Bitcoin fillings, so where's the intrinsic value in Crypto? When will the child in crowd shout out, he's wearing nothing, no doubt the weavers will escape with their spoils.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9mQoJU-6I0

"Where as the internet is seen as a taken for granted commodity
They don't see that mobile phones , internet people really on ,"

Anyone who thinks the market is currently rational, is looking through Rose Tinted Spectacles in my opinion.

There are plenty of signs that the market's gone doolally, look at Bitcoin and Crypto in general. How can a bit of code be worth more than $60,000, when it doesn't have any real world value? The US EV companies are another example, Rivian has exceeded the valuations of Ford and GM, and surpassed Volkswagen yesterday.

"Electric vehicle startup Rivian has surged past Volkswagen to become the world’s third most valuable car manufacturer.
The Tesla rival has seen its shares more than double since its stock market debut last week. A 10pc rise in sales on Tuesday pushed its market capitalisation to $143.5bn (£107bn)."

"It’s also by far the biggest US company with no sales."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/16/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/

Is it just me, or does the current markets have a 1998/99 feel to them?

"they "may" feel a quicker return is possible within T-Mobile US than hanging onto that % within BT ..."

It's possible, but even with DT's holding, Drahi would still only own around 25%. I suspect there's some other player(s) lurking in the shadows.
There's been nothing hinted anywhere about Comcast, and it's purely speculative on my part, but I can't shake a feeling that something might happen between Sky, BT, and Comcast. The reason I can't shake the feeling, is possibly because I see BT and Sky as a perfect fit. Sky has been really quiet and avoiding speculative comments, BT selling the Sport business, etc, all reinforce my view; There are obstacles like the size of Sky's broadband business, combined with BT's broadband business, but Sky have just contractually separated their broadband & TV services, and the broadband business could now easily be spun off, or even sold. All the speculation about Sky and VMO2 engaging in an FFTP venture, is far less likely than a tie up between BT and Sky in my opinion.

I'm being serious lol.

"For the private equity investors who poured billions into challenger networks such as CityFibre and Gigaclear since 2018, the struggle to secure components and workers is fast becoming a headache."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bt-presses-fiber-advantage-supply-050000624.html

"maybe £3.50p per share"

Exactly my point, £3.50 is more than double the current share price.

"Drahi is believed to be interested in buying some or all of Deutsche Telekom’s shares, Reuters reported on Monday, citing a trio of sources."

I saw that article yesterday, but I was sceptical about the suggestion DT would consider selling to Drahi at current prices. Without adding up past dividends to work out overall losses, DT would probably take a massive hit on their investment on anything less than double the current share price. Even double the current share price would mean writedowns for DT.

"4b rise in debt......... terrible news"

The net debt has indeed increased by €3.8 Billion, but it isn't due to an increase in Gross Debt. The increase in Net Debt is due to factors such as the share buybacks, which will prevent share dilution later and lead to higher free cash flow down the road. It's not as simple as just saying Debt has increased by "4b"

"Net debt at 30 September 2021 was €44.3 billion, compared to €40.5 billion as at 31 March 2021. Net debt increased by €3.8 billion due to the free cash outflow of €1.0 billion, equity dividends of €1.3 billion, share buybacks used to offset share dilution linked to mandatory convertible bonds of €1.1 billion, and other movements relating to mark-to-market losses recognised in the income statement of €0.4 billion."

"Has Drahi actually bought these shares or has he borrowed them ala shorting style through certain brokers/makers?"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/holdings-in-company-p2vpvklr9y4x4i2.html

According to the RNS the shares are a "Direct" holding under DTR5.1

"fleccy, wouldn't the purchase of shares on Drahi's behalf be deemed his own purchase at 'arms length' ? I'd imagine that loophole has been closed by now ?"

Well he managed to purchase more than 12%, under the radar; Have their been any regulatory changes since his previous purchases?

"But would this stop Drahi from accumulating more shares and hence having a bigger say to then force BT to undo these changes made to the control-of-clausea of its subordinated bonds?"

Nothing can stop him accumulating more shares, but as far as removing newly added protection to the bonds, I would think it would need the bondholders approval. What it might do, is make it harder for Drahi to raise funds to purchase more stock, as his lenders would see that BT are going to fight any takeover tooth and nail. In the previous post, I was speculating that todays drop was on the back of BT building these takeover defences, with the market assuming that such actions may deter Drahi from building further holdings and pursuing a bid;
All that said, Drahi might be an opportunist and got wind of interest from deeper pocketed entities. I don't think Drahi would ever have had a chance of making a bid for BT alone.

The Bond changes may account for the the subsequent drop, after the price peaked at over 170p this morning.

"BT Group Plc is beefing up takeover defenses in the wake of a report that billionaire Patrick Drahi plans to increase his stake in the British telecommunications firm.

BT announced on Monday that it’s planning to add extra protection for holders of its subordinated bond in the shape of change-of-control clauses. The move sparked a rally in BT’s junior bond, sending it up more than 4 cents to 98 cents.

Those mechanisms work by promising bondholders that, in the event of an acquisition and the company being downgraded to junk as a result, they can still receive the face value of the bond or more. The clauses, along with related step-ups in interest payments, can help fend off takeovers by making a deal more expensive for any buyer.

BT also wants to add a “statement of intention” to buy back all unsubordinated debt that doesn’t have change-of-control provisions. The potential changes will align the bond’s protection clauses with those in the group’s existing and proposed new debt, the firm said. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/bt-junior-bond-jumps-on-defense-play-as-altice-s-drahi-circles

"Change-of-Control Clause: The terms of the prospective hybrids will include call rights in the event of a change of control. If this event triggers a downgrade to a non-investment grade rating for BT Group, the company has the option to redeem all of the securities. If BT Group elects not to redeem the hybrid securities, the then prevailing Interest rate, and each subsequent interest rate on the securities will increase by 5%. Change-of-control clauses with call options that result in a coupon step-up of up to 500bp, if the hybrid is not called, do not negate equity credit, as per our criteria.

Consent Solicitation for Existing Hybrids: BT Group is seeking to amend the terms of its existing EUR500 million hybrid securities issued in 2020 to include a change-of-control clause through consent solicitation. Should BT Group be successful in achieving the consent, the change-of-control clause as reviewed by Fitch, would not affect the rating or equity treatment of the hybrids. BT Group will also provide its intention to launch a tender offer in relation to its senior notes issued before 2007 should a change-of-control event occur."

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-rates-bt-group-prospective-hybrids-bb-exp-15-11-2021

"The question is how many shares has drahi already purchased"

None officially, anyone's guess if third parties are accumulating Stock/Options on his behalf.

The share price nearly touched 171p in early trading, and then loses the gains just as quickly.

"As I have said before it cannot be a fully fledged takeover, nor can it be Openreach falling into foreign hands , thus I'm guessing a break up with maybe EE floated off to fund the full fibre rollout?"

I don't see any scenario where they'd sell off EE. The market is touting IOT as a massive growth sector going into the 2030's, with BT doing research into low latency hollow core fibre and Quantum Key distribution. If anything BT would embed EE more into the core structure, with a view to offering fully converged services. If anything, I'd see Openreach as being the one to eventually offload, but not until the FTTP network is fully completed. All the regulatory pressure is around Openreach, with Openreach being a Infrastructure Management and Provisioning workforce, without owning the assets it looks after.

I'd be interested to see the full text of the interview, since Vodafone has recently signed up to Equinox with BT, and also signed up as the main anchor tenant across the full CityFibre area rollouts. I'm also not sure how solid the relationship is between VMO2 and Vodafone currently, with the 5G MVNO agreement in place, and VMO2 effectively bypassing it with the new VOLT offering. I take a lot of the articles with a pinch of salt these days, unless I can see the hard proof.

I saw that article earlier, as well as the article in This is Money.Both idiotic articles in my opinion. Would the few who need the service pay the cost of providing it, or would the Government pay subsidise the service? I don't think so. As far as the age charities are concerned, they should concentrate on helping the older landline users adjust to the new technology. It's the same thing with banks, where a tiny town wants to keep a branch open that's only used by three people a week.