Member Info for fleccy

"Ask an analyst
35% is the average but there is always an outlier on both sides.
BT given its size and transparency is more likely to be closer to the average"

Your price theory of 216p just wont happen, the BOD would reject it instantly and whoever would have to come back with significantly higher bids. The BOD will come out fighting, and talk to OFCOM, DCMS, and senior politicians, with Boris himself likely pressed for comment by the press. The media would have a field day with a low ball bid and the Government would block any BID that was considered hostile. BT isn't your "average" company, so any BID would need a lot of sweet talking of politicians, BOD approval, and lots of jumping through hoops; Even the CWU, and BTPS Trustees would have significant input.

"With the usual 35% bid premium that means a usual successful bid of 216p."

Where do you get "the usual 35% bid premium" from? KKR are apparently offering a 46% Premium for TIM, and it's likely that wont be enough. In 2012, Vodafone payed a 38p per share offer representing a 92% premium to the level of CWW's share price before the bid interest became known, and that deal had board approval. The CWW bid came about 6 months after Gavin Darby took over as CWW CEO, after previously working for Vodafone, a coincidence?
Clearly 35% premium to the current price wouldn't even come close to Board approval.

"The company trades at 160p."

That might be relevant if the company is distressed, but since BT is a highly profitable company, any BID would need to reflect the component values making up the Group. We all have a right to an opinion, and fair enough you think less than 250p, personally I put the valuation much higher irrespective of the current share price.

"Lol that will get you Openreach"

Openreach is touted as the Jewel in the Crown, but the truth is the Consumer Division generates nearly twice as much Revenue. Openreach Revenue is also composed of two components, External and Internal; In FY21 Openreach total Revenue was £5.244 Billion, and £2.757 Billion of that was internal (coming from BT Group businesses), so Consumer is the biggest Revenue generator (which includes EE), but that's hardly ever mentioned.

"Without a competitive bid it’s gone at less than 250p."

We'll see, but I disagree. Even at 250p I make a big profit, but BT is worth more than that.

"Watch and learn"

Can you be more specific? If you have a theory on how Drahi will manage a takeover of BT, then I'd be happy to read it and give my opinion, otherwise I'll unfreeze the TV and continue watching the Discovery channel.

"it really is unviable unless a sovereign wealth fund the size of Saudi Arabia is interested"

Indeed, it would need seriously deep pockets for a successful bid, and any takeover by a Foreign Entity would come under serious scrutiny.
As I've said previously, Comcast might be capable of a merger/takeover type deal, via SKY, if the company was headquartered and managed in the UK.

The Telecom Italia BOD are currently keeping quiet; Is it so that certain parties can make a profit from the inevitable jump in the price tomorrow? At which point they'll probably release a statement stating that after careful consideration the offer price is far too low.

"Sorry but there has been considerably more than a sniff of a bid from Drahi for months and nothing."

Drahi couldn't take over BT alone, any BID would require other partners and the BID would have to be friendly, or the Government would just block it anyway, under the new National Security and Investment legislation. Any potential suitor would realise that they'd need BOD support to make it viable, and they'd also have to guarantee the investment into Openreach FTTP. If I'm being really honest, I don't see any way BT would be taken over by Drahi.

"With a share price of 160p the BOD will have no choice.
In reality they know the only defence is a higher share price or a competitive bid."

The mere sniff of a bid will hike the price right up anyway. The BOD only have to consider a Bid, they don't have to accept it. The reason the TIM board have just met, is because they have to consider any bid, but there's nothing stopping them from telling KKR to do one.

"IT appears that according to Bloomberg thst KKR have now launched a formal bid for Telecom Italia, and at pretty hefty premium"

I can't see Vivendi accepting such a low ball bid, even if the BOD are neutral on it. At the KKR bid price, Vivendi would lose 50% on their 24% holding. Personally I think KKR are having a laugh and will have to offer considerably more to even have a chance.

"Without a competitive bid 230-250p max."

A bid in the 230 to 250p range would have absolutely no chance of being approved by the Board, so it would have to be a hostile takeover, and even with DT's holding added to Drahi's it is still less than 25%. Since BT aren't a distressed company, and the BOD would fight any takeover, which they've recently signalled, a potential suitor would have to come in with a really high bid, my guess would be £3 to £4 and possibly more. Since debt and the pension deficit isn't a big problem, as it's well covered by earnings, any offer would have to reflect the intrinsic value of the various components, Consumer, Enterprise, Global, and Openreach. Anyone who thinks BT can be poached on the cheap are delusional in my opinion.

The market will make takeover comparisons between BT and TIM, but BT is in far better shape than TIM, in my opinion.

"Thanks fleccy for spreadsheet which graphically destroys the volume justification reason for delisting from London Market."

The chart isn't right, the ticker ETR:RY4C volumes don't tie up with the reported volumes on the Irish stock exchange, as presented on Ryanair's website. I'm struggling to find a Ryanair ticker, to enter in Google sheets, for the Irish Stock Exchange. Going off the Ryanair share page for ISE, volumes are higher on the Dublin Exchange. If I can find a Ryanair ISE ticker that works in Google sheets, I'll update the chart.

https://investor.ryanair.com/share-price/

"Today is actually being touted as the 2nd biggest ever options expiry date in many stocks and currency options in history. So not really a sandard expiry date."

Can you supply links? BT's trading volume suggests there's nothing special about today, apart from maybe the price drop.

It's only a standard expiration date, the price action wasn't like that in the previous two standard expiration dates; 17th Sep and 15th Oct.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=1937898192&format=interactive

"Sabre rattling from Liberty maybe behind it"

I doubt it, more likely to be the Covid news spooking the market. The Algo's think BT is a Travel stock, go figure.

"VWAP showing c163 versus share price under 160"

According to Google, the current share price is 159.9p. Lloyds is currently down 2.78% too. Not a good day for UK focused stocks.

I've been out this morning, got back to find the price down by 6.5p, I'll have to stay in in future lol

I'm not so sure the ETR:RY4C Ticker on Google represents Dublin, and Yahoo Ticker (RY4C.IR) shows higher volumes for RY4C. Maybe someone with more knowledge of Euronext could clear that up.