The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
"The system is fooked, BTC may be the lifeboat"
I was around in 70's and 80's, so I've seen worse than the current situation. Crises come and go, but life goes on. A lot of people have bought into the hype around Crypto currencies, NFT's and DeFi, personally I don't see it. Time will tell if there's any substance to the hype, but usually there's a space where some of the hype leads to some useful developments, but a lot of the speculation comes to nothing. Musk is a good example of someone who sets unachievable goals, with some of his projects gaining a measure of success and many falling by the wayside.
I can see why people are enthused by something new, but I can't buy into the narrative. If I said I understand the Crypto Universe I'd be lying, all I see is an attempt to reinvent the wheel. I've watched Michael Saylor on many occasions, but reminds me of a Snake Oil salesman.
"https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l9mYjGruSCY
Fleccy I was just watching this and thought how the fundamentals of the conversation were qbt and FG and not Tesla and EM the comparison is so similar.
Back to reality FG has a once in a lifetime opportunity to deliver a industrial revolutionary change in this sector"
The Gist I got is that Chamath Palihapitiya was singing Musk and Tesla's praise, but wasn't willing to invest in the common stock and invested in the bonds instead, in a smaller way he's the equivalent of Eufingest in QBT. In my opinion, I never could see the reasoning behind defining Tesla as a Technology company, as opposed to a Car company, since it's only a matter of time before they'd have to compete with the likes of BMW, Ford. Renault, etc on the EV front; And other companies when it comes to "Megafactories"/battery technology.
I have no idea what QBT may have in the background, but they're up against corporate Giants and racing against the clock to get a product out to a diminishing competitive market. How can QBT compete against the likes of Intel, AMD, Nvidia, etc, who'll all push their own with their own firmware/software?
All my opinion, feel free to disagree.
My personal view is that we're close to its demise, it may have one or two years left in my opinion, but why do I think that?
With every Halving event, the cost of Bitcoin mining operations doubles unless the Miners invest in new more efficient rigs incurring an upfront capital cost. Since the miners will need to pay the ever increasing cost of ongoing operations, it's likely they'll have to sell their newly minted Bitcoin immediately. The miners probably wont have the money to sit on their hoard, since their finances are stretched already. The biggest issue for the miners is the power costs; They can invest in better equipment, like Intel Blockscale ASIC's in the case of Hive, but that comes at a cost which eats into the bottom line.
The latest Bitcoin price spike is most likely due to the ever decreasing pool of die hard wealthy enthusiasts, or "whales". who're true believers in the Crypto cause. It's likely Gemini, Genesis and DCG will fail or need to raise significant amounts of cash, possibly leading to a fire sale of Crypto assets in the near future.
https://ambcrypto.com/gemini-founder-claims-genesis-and-dcg-are-beyond-commingled-gives-deadline/
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7
Apparently around 19 Million Bitcoin have so far been mined, so 2 Million to go. If you assume the price of Bitcoin stays around $20,000, I think it'll go lower, the total sale value of the remaining 2 million Bitcoin is around $40 Billion. They reckon it'll be around 2040 when the last Bitcoin is mined, so that $40 Billion would be spread over 17 years, with the cost of production doubling every 4 years, so diminishing returns.
I also believe the narrative about Bitcoin having value through limited supply is also false, since they've eliminated the supply constraint through the invention of the Satoshi, one Satoshi is equivalent to a hundred millionth of one Bitcoin; If you believe the intrinsic value of one Bitcoin is Zero, as I do, then one millionth of Zero is Zero, so one Bitcoin is equal in value to one Satoshi, Zero.
I'm a hard Crypto sceptic and just stumbled across this page. It doesn't appear to be well used, but thought I'd try a post and see what happens.
Does anyone have any views on the effect Bitcoin Halving will have on miners, post the event in 2024?
Where's the value in Bitcoin, since the narrative seems to change as each use case fails real world tests?
Why is Bitcoin now being portrayed as a store of value, when it has no intrinsic value or use outside of the Crypto universe?
The whole future of Bitcoin depends on mass adoption, but that's highly unlikely, since the recent events have damaged the reputation of the whole industry, an views on that?