The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
"Nasdaq Aiming to Debut Crypto Custody Service by Q2 End"
If there's a way to make money then they'll do it. I assume they won't own the shares, maybe they'll offer personal wallets and trading facilities, at a cost of course. This will possibly feed into the regulatory arguments over what's a digital security and what's a digital commodity.
There's some big money invested by the Whales in Crypto, Nasdaq are looking at tapping into that.
Deutsch Bank is down 26% over the last month, Lloyds are down 12%. It adds up to a lot more Lloyds shares after the 6th April and more dividends after ex dividend day on the 13th April. I don't mind the price dropping when we're looking at topping up.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiF-cej__P9AhVIXMAKHX0KDOkQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&comparison=ETR%3ADBK&window=1M
"Banks on the ropes again today"
Indeed, I'm looking forward to topping up Lloyds in the ISA's next month.
"so in reality it wouldn't be any different than the current Banking system' The one where money is created without constraint ?"
Not in the case of Proof of Stake, the controlling entity could create more Tokens as required, or even in the case of Proof of Work if the developers wanted to. The developers make the rules, and can change the rules as they see fit and it isn't like you could vote them out, but if you could get rid of them what would stop them breaking the system on their way out of the door?
As I've pointed out before, the Bitcoin scarcity argument is fake, since developers could produce infinitesimally small tokens, far smaller than Satoshi's, or create a hard fork and make more tokens that way. The vested interests have changed the Bitcoin Narrative many times, usually as each use case gets disproved.
The whole DeFi concept is flawed from top to bottom, you need managed systems with the the managers accountable to a higher power; Crypto lumps responsibility onto the individual and most aren't technically savvy enough to master the technology, which is another reason why it'll never take hold and be limited to the invested community. It'll eventually fail for many reasons.
To add to my last post; It's theoretically possible, in this Crypto Nirvana, to use something like Proof of Stake to mimic Banks with the stakeholders pooling funds to offer mortgages and loans and receiving interest income from the customers, but the system would have to be secure, regulated, and institutional in nature to offer the required protections, so in reality it wouldn't be any different than the current Banking system; The proof of stake tokens would have to be non volatile and stable within their host economy, probably a CBDC.
As far as Bitcoin's concerned I can't think of any use for that, it seems pointless and useless to me. At least Ethereum's proof of stake concept could have some real world applications, I can't say the same of Bitcoin.
"You can smell the fear from some of the financial talking heads, they know the system is primed and ready for collapse"
The financial system wont collapse, because they can just dip into their Armory of financial tools and reset the system at will. The Bitcoin community narrative about creating an alternative financial system, and how it will replace Fiat, and how the current system is on the verge of collapse is delusional and designed to suck the naïve into buying tokens. My Son has just remortgaged at 3.94%, fixed for 5 years, the Financial system is alive and well and being used every day by the rank and file. Maybe its my age, but I've heard all this before in relation to other things, like the housing market will collapse, or this or that will happen, but in the end it's all just a blip.
I don't see how Crypto can replace all the products currently served by the Financial Institutions, and who would administer such products? How would you obtain a mortgage in this Crypto Nirvana? Or get a loan? Who'd be responsible for administering the system and ensuring the security of your funds when transacting? Who's responsible for ensuring it all works the way it should? Possibly a bunch of hobbyist developers who have no idea what the real world is about?
In a Worldwide Crypto currency system, what happens if someone creates a virus that corrupts all the nodes, since it's supposedly Decentralised who do you blame when the inevitable hack, data loss, or corruption of data occurs? What happens if the Blockchain gets corrupted beyond repair? who's responsible for backing up and securing nodes? Who pays to maintain the Node network? If no one has overall responsibility, then the users only have themselves to blame when their money disappears into a black digital hole.
One last thing, simplicity, trust and security are the most important features when it comes to financial transactions, and that's why the big institutions will always be the ones trusted to look after peoples money.
The Crypto community thinks financial Armageddon is around the corner, because they suffer from Communal reinforcement, further reinforced by the vested interests making money from them in the shadows.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communal_reinforcement
it's quite unbelievable that Bitcoin is so high, either the fans can't read the writing on the wall, or it's being manipulated up.
I see Bitcoin is holding above $27,000. No doubt the current price is driven by true believers supporting the price and putting two fingers up at the vanilla financial industry, along the same lines as Meme stock supporters supported those stocks. In the meantime the SEC is going after Coinbase, with all regulators probably checking their ****nals to see what they can throw at the sector. The community can see what's coming, and attempt to blackmail US regulators by saying you'll drive Crypto offshore to the benefit of other countries, but all the Central Banks and regulatory authorities talk to each other. The most likely scenario is that regulation will slowly strangle DeFi Crypto, and Central Bank Stable Coins will probably appear to help in international transactions.
I haven't given FRB much attention, but I suspect it'll survive this, or be taken over. Bailey, and others, issue warnings about Bitcoin because they understand economics and can see no intrinsic value in the token. As I said, or implied previously, Bitcoin price is driven purely by the enthusiasm of the Crypto community, and is more like a religion rather than a valid investment. There are some prominent Evangelist preachers, with many apostles spreading the Crypto message on YouTube, underlining the religion comparison.
"It's got to be First Republic Bank next"
The share price isn't important in determining the viability of the Bank, it's depositors withdrawing funds that'll decide their fate. In reality it'll probably be taken over by one of the bigger banks. I expect the FED and authorities are going to be out for blood once all this blows over. If I was one of the VC's telling people to get their money out of SVB, I'd probably be a little bit worried.
I can't explain the reason for the recent enthusiasm for Growth stocks and Crypto, as the financial environment is going to get decidedly worse for both of them.
"Time to see how the FED act and how they try to install confidence in US Banks."
Powel's last words said it all
"Rate cuts aren't in our base case"
Clearly interest rates will stay high until they reach the 2% target, I think the market's underestimating the FED's determination to bring inflation ubder control. I didn't hear anything that supports the Bull case for growth stocks or crypto.
"I get everything you say Fleccy, but I truly believe the BTC story is only now starting."
Cheers. Different opinions, on the direction of stocks and assets, is what drives the market, time will tell as far as Crypto's concerned.
"TBF these chat boards are always better if there is an opposing view"
Indeed, but I'll leave them to it for a little while, since I've said everything I wanted to say today.
"I see you're giving the QBT board some stick today"
I think I need a new wireless keyboard, this one appears to be on the fritz lol.
I just don't believe QBT will be able to achieve what they are aiming for and the fact that they're stalling on rolling out their algorithms sort of backs that up. As I pointed out on the QBT page, mathematicians and coders have been trying to find algorithms to speed up Bitcoin mining for over 10 years, without measurable success. The evolution of mining has tended toward pure brute force hashing power, why would that change now as the Mining reward will be halving within a year?
"I see you're giving the QBT board some stick today"
Well
Most Telecom providers have increased prices by CPI+3.9%, with Openreach wholesale prices increasing at the CPI rate. I like BT and have high hopes for that investment; Not just because of future cost savings, on the back of PON and convergence, but also because the interesting things they're doing in R&D.
https://www.bt.com/about/bt/research-and-development
I didn't think that was even legal last year. That article was published on the 26th April last year and Bitcoin was valued at around $39,000. During May 2022, Bitcoin lost around $10, 000 in value, falling to around $29,000.June 2022 saw another $10,000 come off bringing the price down to around $19,000.
Anyone putting Bitcoin, or Crypto, into their pension funds should plan for a miserable retirement. In my opinion, retail piling into Crypto will eventually bail out the Whales, If I was an investor in Bitcoin I'd make sure I kept a close eye on what the Whales are up to.
This isn't financial advice, but personally I'd invest as much as I can afford into Solid safe Blue chip dividend paying stocks, possibly within an ISA or SIPP, and reinvest dividends as they come in. By reinvesting your dividends over time, you're compounding returns because the new shares bought increase the next dividend, and any extra capital you inject acts a multiplier. As the price of your stocks fluctuate, it feeds back into the amount of shares you can buy through new capital and dividend reinvestment, so if the price drops you can buy more shares giving you more dividends to reinvest going forward.
Between me and my wife, we've built a portfolio currently paying over £22,000 in annual dividends; Next year there's a good chance our annual dividends will go over £23,000, if the prices of our stocks stay low and our ISA dividend reinvestments pick up more stock at low valuations. Value dividend stocks being out of fashion, coupled with Brexit, Covid Pandemic and the Ukraine war have all helped us top up and increase our dividend payouts big time. If we'd been sitting in non dividend paying "Growth" type stocks, and mediocre performance delayed those stocks reaching our targets, we may well still be waiting for capital returns, with our capital tied up and going nowhere, that's one of the risks associated with Growth type Risk investments. Reinvesting Dividends can be seen as a form of growth, but the Financial Industry want people to trade regularly and take more risk, which is why they probably hate companies paying dividends. I've argued about the merits of dividend reinvestment for years, but many on here don't seem to get it and trash my opinion.
Non of the above is financial advice, it's just my personal opinions and everyone should do their own research.
https://dividendathlete.com/dividend-investing-calculator/
"Fidelity Crypto Launch Could Benefit from Banking Turmoil"
If I'm reading the article correctly, they're looking at making it easier to trade Crypto, it looks to me like they're targeting disenfranchised Silvergate Capital and Signature bank Crypto customers. You can bet Fidelity will run this with zero risk to themselves, but make money off the back of Crypto traders.
I still think Crypto/DeFi will eventually disappear, but I would say that because I don't like it.
"I need to invest in things that potentially can return higher than inflation"
Everyone has there own attitude to risk. Bitcoin will, and has, made money for some people. The issue I have with Bitcoin, and Crypto, is that it produces nothing and just moves money around. The mining farms use a lot of electricity, so the Electricity companies do well and GPU/ASIC manufactures like NVIDEA do well, and as long as the miners can sell their mined tokens they can do well. As I said previously, since the value of Crypto Tokens are based on belief they have no intrinsic value.
I only invest in Blue chip Dividend paying stocks and that also has its ups and downs, like dividend suspensions during covid and debasement coming out of the pandemic. By reinvesting dividends I believe we've been trading income for growth, and going forward that gives us the choice to sell when the price recovers, or take income and cease dividend top ups.
I believe all my investments provide a valuable service; Vodafone and BT both own substantial Telecommunication assets and therefore support connectivity to vast numbers of people. Lloyds supplies Business loans and home mortgage loans to people, allowing them to invest in their own futures. I wouldn't invest in companies like British American Tobacco, because I have a subconscious moral issue against investing in certain companies and sectors. I probably hate Bitcoin, because I think it'll hurt the more naïve and enrich the sharks with no moral compass. For anyone having any doubts about Crypto being a huge scam, just look at NFT's like Bored Ape Yacht Club Monkeys, which I've seen Raoul Pal promoting in his videos. Raoul Pal is quite a switched on guy, does he really believe what he's saying when he promotes Bored Ape NFT's? I very much doubt it; He's just a salesman enticing the naïve and promoting tat at a super inflated prices. He's a vested interest player who's talking his own book.
I watched the Video and it follows a pattern you see in a lot of Crypto evangelist YouTube content; Truth mixed with fantasy and dressed up to suck in the more easily influenced viewers. It's mainly vested interest spin aimed at convincing people that Crypto is the second coming. The teaser was near the end of the video, implying Bitcoin will be around $50,000 within a year.
I've not seen anything in any video that convinces me crypto is worth anything, because I haven't seen an argument demonstrating a base value for any of the Tokens. Bitcoin isn't worth anything because its value is based purely on belief, so it's more akin to religion than a currency or store of value.
The success of Bitcoin is dependent on mass adoption, which means they have to convince the majority of the World population that it has value, but how do you demonstrate the value of something that isn't anchored to anything Tangible? The only way I could see it happening, is if all the Worlds Central Banks and Governments adopted Bitcoin as a World Currency, with their individual economic strengths determined by the amount of Bitcoin held by each Central Bank, in other words a Bitcoin standard similar to the Gold standard with some mechanism to ensure stability, clearly that isn't going to happen; And If they did decide to do that, why use Bitcoin? They could just create a dedicated Blockchain specifically for the job. I think Central Banks will eventually create stable coin tokens to use in currency exchange, but they'd have no reason to use the existing private tokens. I believe some people will become rich on the back of crypto and many will lose their money, personally I'll stick to real companies with real assets.