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I also have opinions about Starlink too. I question the strategy of putting 12000 satellites in orbit. Apparently the average lifespan of a Low Earth Orbit satellite is 5 or 6 years, so the constellations would have to be refreshed every 5 years. The service is most useful for rural geographically isolated areas, with sp**** population density, so isn't really suitable to serve large population numbers, with high bandwidth requirements, since semi rural and urbanised areas could be served through Fibre and 5G.
OneWeb are looking at around 650 satellites at an altitude of 1200Km, or double the altitude of the Starlink constellations. OneWeb will partner with local telecom providers, rather than offering a direct residential service it'll be a backhaul service for the providers. I'm not saying this because OneWeb has a UK element, it's my true opinion that the OneWeb strategy makes more business sense. There are a few ways LEO's could provide service, Musk has chosen to put up thousands of satellites and provide service direct to the end user; OneWeb are letting the local provider deal with the metaphorical "last mile", which could be from hilltop masts or maybe High Altitude Platforms.
In summary (From what I've read:
Quantity (forecasted)
Starlink 12000 Satellites
OneWeb 650 Satellites
Altitude
Starlink Around 500Km to 600Km
OneWeb Around 1200Km
OneWeb has potentially higher Uplink/Downlink latency, dependent on distance to each Satellite and distance to Ground stations, but you're talking around minimum 4ms latency for Starlink vs around 8ms minimum for OneWeb.
Because of OneWeb satellites higher altitudes, there's a larger window for line of sight for terrestrial stations/terminals.
I've rambled on a bit, to highlight my opinion, but do Starlink really need to put so many satellites in orbit?
Honestly, how SpaceX and all the other US commentators can describe the launch as a success is beyond me; They have to describe it as a success to keep investors on-board, pardon the pun, whereas in reality the investment has literally blown up. Rockets have been launched for 60 years, so scaling up the size of the rocket to lift more weight is a question of thrust to weight ratio. To my mind the hardest things would be the Booster separation and then landing the Starship afterwards, which it didn't achieve. The podcast hyped up America big time, to deflect from the epic failure. America F^(k Yeah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LasrD6SZkZk
Because the US uses fixed rate 30 year mortgages, it doesn't surprise me that the US housing market is suffering. I can't see someone in the US locking in a 6% interest rate, over 30 years, when everyone's telling them that interest rates will soon come down as inflation drops.
I hadn't seen that, but it's the same as some of the regulated Bitcoin related futures derivatives available in the US. It isn't the same as trading directly in Bitcoin.
"Bitcoin and Crypto represents a growing percentage of voters in the US and other countries"
I don't see a clampdown on crypto affecting voter intentions, since it'll be the regulators chipping away at the sector. The sector will probably suffer death by a thousand cuts, with life getting gradually more difficult, over time, for Fiat/Crypto on and off ramping.
"I think we can safely say it has value even if not everyone agrees"
It wont stop them regulating it to death down the road. The US Regulatory Cavalry are lining up to charge the Crypto positions, and Crypto has little or no defence against such overwhelming forces.
"Early days and until inflation, recession, debt ceiling and military spend unravel BTC is just doing what it was built to do"
What was BTC built to do? First it was supposed to be a currency, then a store of value and now they're adding things like Ordinals to create another use case where there isn't any need for one. I don't get why people defend the indefensible around Bitcoin, it has no use whatsoever other than it's underlying Blockchain technology capable of storing data.
As I've stated on many occasions, Bitcoin's value is based entirely on what the next person is willing to pay for it; Bitcoin has no fundamental value, as it has no real world uses other than being bought and sold. In all honesty can you tell me what real world uses Bitcoin has, and how someone can use it to create and build stuff?
People compare Bitcoin to Gold, but Gold is a real world physical element with properties making it useful in many different ways, things like Jewellery, Electronics, Medicine, etc.
I bet anything you can suggest as a use for Bitcoin, can easily be argued against or alternatives created doing the same tasks. Bitcoin is worthless because it's nothing special, it's just painted as something special by vested interests.
"With all that and lot's more going on BTC seems a pretty good place to park some funds imo"
Everyone's free to spend their money as they please, as long as it's legal. As far as Bitcoin, any money used to purchase Satoshi's or Bitcoin is just a punt in my opinion and not what I'd consider an investment. As I've always said, anything that's easily replicated has no real value, and anyone with the relevant coding skills could create a Proof of Work Token similar to Bitcoin for very little cost; In my mind, this why Bitcoin value is based purely on belief and nothing more.
Fair enough if you're a believer then that's your choice, you pay your money you take your chance.
Personally I can't rationalise any va
"Maybe because having a bucket that may be leaky if you are not careful with it seems smarter than having no bucket"
The leaky bucket metaphor was in reference to fraud endemic within Crypto. There are other buckets like normal stocks and investments. I see Bitcoin is over $30,000 again, no doubt many more believers will be relieved of their cash. Eventually Crypto will run out of believers, as I said in a QBT post it's a matter of when not if.
"A team at Chainplay notes that crypto investors worldwide have had over $30 billion stolen over the last decade. In 2022, there were 436 separate crypto crime incidents, more than four times the number reported in 2021 (94). Meanwhile, the amounts stolen during these crimes continues to rise, increasing by 46 percent between 2021 and 2022.
When you break down the nearly $12 billion stolen in 2022, that’s $1.4 million in cryptocurrency disappearing every hour from people’s accounts."
https://studyfinds.org/crypto-crime-lose-billions-2023/
Why would anyone buy in to a leaky bucket?
This chap echo's many of my sentiments.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/economy-without-bitcoin-negative-waste-money-costs-social-financial-effect-2023-4
The last post came out wrong lol. If I connect together from the last posts, this is what I meant to say:
He makes perfect sense, apart from mentioning Bitcoin and Gold. I'd only ever put money into defensive stocks with pricing power.
Apart from Bitcoin and Gold. I'd only ever put money into defensive stocks with pricing power.
He makes perfect sense.
Ok, I'm watching the Kevin Video and as I'm typing it's just passed the section where he talks about the Goldman Sachs bull case for tech, but that makes absolutely no sense. I'll give you an example of why I disagree with that view, Google, Meta, etc rely on advertising and advertising is the first thing companies cut in a recession; He does make a reference about reductions in advertising revenue in tech and talks about possible earnings growth from AI. I can see a growth case for AI, like ChatGpt, due to its possibilities for increasing productivity and mainly because people like my Son will possibly pay for an enhanced service. All said, there may be growth opportunities in AI, but that's unrelated to issues around interest rates and recession.
In a high inflation environment, as he said pricing power is important and the best pricing power is in Utilities, Telecoms, etc. Look at Telecoms in the UK, most of the Communication providers are pushing through price increases of CPI+3.9% (currently around 14%) and that blows Goldman Sachs Tech rather than utilities theory out of the water. Pricing power sits with essential services, not take it or leave it stuff.
"OPEC news is an interesting development"
Indeed, if Oil goes too high then more inflation which means higher interest rates.
Neil Oliver needs to take a chill pill, if he can't compartmentalise his mind in order to enjoy fictional events in Television series and films. I can only watch so much of his monologue rants before my brain switches over to more important things, like what's for lunch today?
I don't have his problem because I binge watch cartoons like Archer, Paradise PD and Inside Job, as they are far more real and thought provoking in deep and meaningful ways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Ix9a8yq7M
Bitcoin with respect to Descartes and Nihilism
If you would be a real seeker after Bitcoin, it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt, as far as possible, all things Fiat.
We do not describe the Bitcoin we see, we see the Bitcoin we can describe.
It is not enough to have a good Bitcoin. The main thing is to use it well.
Bitcoin is the origin of wisdom
If we believe in Bitcoin, if Bitcoin has any meaning and if we can affirm no values whatsoever, then everything is possible and nothing has any importance.
Fiat's but a walking shadow, a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
The only thing that exists is Bitcoin. In the beginning, there was Fiat. And the Fiat was without form, and void. And in addition to the Fiat there was also me. And I moved upon the face of the Fiat. And I saw that I was alone. Let there be Bitcoin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h73PsFKtIck&t=1s
I agreed with everything Mark Moss said, in his video, but he went down in my estimation when he listed Bitcoin on the commodity side of his "Barbell".
The substance of his video was correct, commercial property loans will have suffered as a result of Covid since we've now entered a post Covid work from home culture, but the Central Banks can't afford to drop interest rates because hyperinflation wont just damage a sector, it'll destroy whole economies.
I'm not so sure commercial property loans are as much of a problem in the UK, as the US, because although companies are downsizing their floorspace there's still a market for the sector, and someone will buy or rent office space in prime locations. Many of the UK's prime office space locations are also desirable places to live, so there's an option of repurposing unused office space, I'm talking about waterside areas like Canary Wharf, Salford Quays, Royal Albert Dock, and many City Centre prime locations, so I don't see the UK as having the same commercial property issues.
The reason risk-on stocks are currently seeing a price resurgence, is because the market's betting on the FED reducing interest rates and injecting more stimulus. If the FED and other Central Banks don't rebalance economies now it'll just lead to a bigger crash down the road, so I'm not so sure they'll take a short term approach this time around. The market's betting on the FED throwing more fuel on the fire, they could just as easily throw a bucket of water on it.
I have a deep mistrust of headline market narrative's, smart money will often paint a picture to allow them an escape route on the back of naïve and retail investors, who's to say this isn't the case now? Just because the market's currently pumping risk-on, doesn't mean that smart money isn't slowly pulling out of the riskier growth/Crypto parts of the market.
"I heard Sachs say he did in a day what would have taken a week and almost without the need for a team to help...
So I heard massive job cuts in certain sectors and increased productivity in other areas"
On the software side of things, you still need to know what you're doing. My Son says it's speeded his work up considerably, because he doesn't have to write code from scratch and he told me he even used ChatGpt to solve a problem at work for his boss; Apparently the solution involved SQL and he supplied his boss with the solution plus the ChatGpt logs. I asked my Son if his boss will now arrange to pay for my Son's ChatGpt subscription, my Son just laughed. His Boss didn't believe in the app previously, but I suspect he's coming around to it now.