Nanoco litigation update (part 1 of 2)21 Apr 2022 12:39
I can now trace my error on the total sales numbers – and thankfully, my numbers are 50% too low. But as I shall explain below, 10m for US sales at trial in Oct/Nov 2022 is also way too low (by at least 30%). In my opinion the figure at trial will be closer to 15m.
Let me explain by reference to this article from a couple of months ago: https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-worlds-biggest-tv-brand-16-years-row/amp/
It shows Samsung sales year by year: 2017: 0.80 million; 2018: 2.60 million; 2019: 5.32 million; 2020: 7.79 million; 2021: 9.43 million.
ME made his pronouncement about 14m sales in July 2020 and Edison’s damages calculation followed on from that. I assume at that point in time Edison would have been working on the basis of one-third for US sales or approx. 5m, whereas this data shows that by the end of 2021 the running total for global sales of Samsung QD displays was 25.94m. If one adds in a further, say, 3m for Q1 of 2022 (12m = my conservative estimate of the total for the CY), the overall total is near enough 29m, being more than double what it was when Edison started making their damages predictions based on ME’s 14m number.
This must be correct as it also ties in with what Nanogeddon says below about 10m sales for US alone – here quoting BT himself at 44:20 (ish) of the recording. One-third of 30m is 10m. Check?
Edison has never updated its damages predictions but given the above it seems that $200-250m is now way out of line. Damages would be $400-500m at the lower end based on royalties alone. The “take home” for Nanoco would also be closer to 80% than 50% on that same basis.
BUT here is the good part …… if you listen carefully to what BT says at 44:20 he is quoting what they have said IN THE PAST about total sales come the date of the trial. HOWEVER, the trial was originally going to take place around about now and was then shifted back to approx. October/ November 2022 to accommodate the PTAB. So, for sake of argument, as a minimum we should be adding something like 9m additional sales additional sales for Q2-Q4 by the date of the trial, taking the overall number closer to 13m in US historical sales (39m worldwide).
That figure is certainly conservative though because we have also been told that Samsung has now begun selling its panels to other display manufacturers and that overall sales are ramping up in the QD display market – see the slide and commentary at 12:50 of the presentation:
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/6246f81be1d0d456b32a17b3/625526ae2c86984e9aa73307
As Intrusivethought has pointed out below, Qd Oled is likely to rapidly gain traction in the display market:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPkHjoVBcjY
In the same presentation BT also says (@12:00) that these second generation QD tv’s also use 4 TIMES as many quantum dots so taking the lowly $10-14 royalty which Edison had once quoted, this could easily become $40-50 per display.
CONTINUED
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