Member Info for fatprofits

Every vote counts if it's a vote for him.

The leader of the free world, eh.

I wish him every future unhappiness.

Keep an eye on Georgia tomorrow.

Not sure when results will be announced.

n/m

I've sold some ISF so hoping for a mid week down day
to add those back.

The proposed split is real, GSK mention it enough times!.

Fats cannot do the splits sadly, although I did date two

dancers way back in the day, who both could!.

I was much better looking and slim back then, needless to say.

I at least try to take emotions out of any stocks I hold,
often highlighting potential downsides, even when holding
that stock.

On AZN under "reasons for recent underperformance" I posted -
AZN will about double their debt and issue a boatload of
extra shares with the Alexon acquisition.

I'm interested in making money, not getting emotionally involved
with a particular stock.

Agree, I hold both and don't see
need for continuous comparison.

The short term key for GSK is for the pandemic
to end so their vaccine uptake rates return to
Previous levels - and to progress their pipeline.

CS, FY 2023 consensus for AZN is approx £5 on EPS.

GSK is my outsider stock for 2021, as expectations are
incredibly low - as posted earlier this week.

If you are disagreeing with COVID-19 costing GSK
significant revenue - GSK spell this out in the 2020 Q2 update.
Read it.

If you are disagreeing with current consensus estimating
GSK suffer an EPS fall in FY 2021, then look at the consensus .
That's where consensus is at.

If you are disagreeing that GSK FY 2022 estimates May have
to be revised downwards IF COVID-19 lasts longer than
expected, then once more read the Q2 2020 update.

Some of us take the time to do research.

The reason I have GSK as an outside bet for 2021,
is this all May already be in the price.

Another dip under £13 can't be ruled out.
Would hope that will not happen, lets see.

Obviously I may be wrong and GSK underperforms
the wider UKX again in 2021.

With the pandemic showing little sign of early resolution

2022 estimates May be too high.

Covid-19 is costing GSK dearly with lower vaccination uptake rates.

I will keep a watch on revisions.

And that's what drives the share price.

2021 consensus estimates for GSK show a fat % EPS decline.

Now look at the AZN estimates, growth powering ahead.

With GSK you are largely buying the hope of future growth from 2022.

AZN Has already delivered and continues to do so.

Which is why AZN is now the UK's preeminent pharma company

and deservedly so.

Covid-19- and the revenue loss from lower vaccination rates
on the GSK P&L.

Which is why GSK holders should care little about
who develops a vaccine.

So the more vaccine options for Covid-19 the better,
even if you were looking at this purely from the financial
benefit to GSK.

A quick look at the GSK 12 month share price will spell
this out very clearly.

Look at the June 2020 GSK price, when many thought
the worst of Covid-19 was behind us - and then the gradual
slide with the realisation that further lockdowns were on the way.

Is the key in any sustainable re-rating.

You can see the updated GSK pipeline on the Q3 2020 presentation.

It's all on the GSK IR site as most will be aware.

Not only have AZN delivered on the vaccine front and

hopefully shortly an antibody treatment,

they have succeeded in gaining multiple approvals

for their new medications.

As I've recently bought GSK can only hope their 2021 delivers.

The year belongs to AstraZeneca, now firmly the star of UK pharma.

Reportedly there are now emergency plans being considered

to move children in London A&E units to Great Ormond St.

and use those beds for surge COVID-19 adult patient capacity-

just think about that for a second.

Already in the South East some patients are being ferried outside

the region as their local hospital has no more capacity.

We are entering a very dangerous phase.

Https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/astrazeneca-s-biologic-combo-azd7442-for-covid-19-moving-ahead

This may be needed and may be a commercial product.

How much of this AZN can manufacture quickly...?

£ continues to strengthen this morning,

beginning to weigh on the overseas earners.

For a small amount under 73.10.

Wishing everyone a happy and safe new year.

One of my friends is a paramedic and the situation in the SE
is dangerous atm, if you had predicted this last year you
might have been locked up.

Reportedly Essex have asked the Army for help to increase hospital capacity this evening.

Some of the Nightingale facilities are being used currently, mainly as an
NHS overflow for non urgent appointments.

In terms of the short term GSK share price, stronger GBP
is a headwind, same applies to AZN etc.

We don't have enough qualified staff for the Nightingale hospitals.

The idea was army medics would largely staff these if needed,
assume they are now helping with the vaccine roll out.

For example with ICU's, not all nursing staff are either trained or qualified
to provide that level of care. My better half works in healthcare.

No one will be forced to have a vaccine in the UK,
with one exception, those with 'lack of capacity'.
A 'best interest' decision can be taken if there is no
relative with power of attorney.

The AZN vaccine will save thousands of lives,
It will also indirectly save lives as currently people
are queuing in ambulances outside some hospitals.
many of those will be other major emergency conditions
such as heart attacks or strokes- this is an area that gets
little attention.

It's a great day for both science and the UK.