Member Info for fatprofits

To free up some funds for expected wider market volatility

next week. Should be some nice opportunities.

ULVR stronger this AM with weaker GBP.

You are clearly embarrassed as I've shown your comment on January

stock market performance to be risible.

Some of your comments on Unilever show a clear lack of understanding

of the business, however from a TA perspective you may be closer

to the mark @ circa £42, a level that I have mentioned previously.

In any case good fortune from fatty and season's greetings.

And the role was integation.

Integration is not complete on a merger date!.

I have EPS consensus at a touch over 8 pence for this year so

that puts Serco on approx 15 X currently, allowing a small EPS increase

for 2021 gives approx 14 X - that's guessestimating on the initial 2021

outlook given today.

Prior to today's update, 2021 guidance was at 8 pence on EPS,

allowing for 9 pence × 14 gives £1.26.

Remember the MOD contact being taken back in-house is

a very lucrative one, they detail the numbers in the 2 November RNS

FX is a big factor in the SP currently and GBP further strengthened today.

Further lockdowns, in very general terms, will impact cyclicals,

rather than consumer discretionary.

The average January return for the SPX over the last 29 years is + 0.82%.

I don't have the average January returns for the UKX.

Unilever online sales are running at over + 60% on the last Q update.

ULVR already sells on a significantly lower multiple than P&G, Clorax and Nestle

and on a higher yield than those 3 competitors.

Well I contributed to that.

Had a glance this afternoon at the buy and hold case -

Approx 14 X for modest 2021 earnings growth estimates

is about fair(ish).

It's just a pity the MOD took back that contract in-house.

Serco looks at lesst worth watching, low debt, small buy back to come.

A quick little profit from yesterday.

Luck to longer term holders.

Very small amount only as unsure on this.

Just to clarify, IF the SP traded circa £42 on an EU deal announcement

(because of a stronger £) - I would expect that to be a short term move only.

An EU deal is pretty much nailed on, what remains to be seen is any

subsequent FX driven move for the Unilever share price.

driftking, your post makes little sense.

Unilever around current levels gives an approx 3.5% yield,

the multiple is at the lower end of the last 5 year average.

ULVR generates extraordinary amounts of free cash flow,

so the referencing some new IPO lacks relevance imv.

I'm all for different views but you appear to be totally off track imv.

Yes, if we secure an EU deal we may possibly see near £42 a share,

however Unilever has been overlooked of late,

it looks the very opposite end of any frothy market conditions,

all imv, dyor etc.

Near current levels imv.

The UK represents a tiny fraction of Unilever's turnover

Dean, do you hold AZN, really, seriously?.

Your first post on AZN,.

Fatty is on the ball.

I did wonder, thought he may be a sector analyst.

* if that is

Phyl,

Is that was your own work then a quality summation.

Appears around 1.8 bn on pre tax and 46 on EPS.

Now obvs that could be subject to large change, FY '23 is a long way off.

However this may give some insight in to the market's "thinking" re RYA.

And that appears to be anticipating they will clean up as demand returns.

Markets are heavily risk on atm, as with forecasts, that can change.

I intend to add on weakness, IF the opportunity arises.

My own take fwiw is around £100 was unjustified.

Current levels look more realistic.

Remember the wider UKX, FX etc, all play a part.

I'm going to remind you of that £50 call.

Don't go deleting your profile now.

Some of us have been posting on LSE for years

under the same username.

Coming into longer term Buy territory here.

Please note I'm not attempting to make a definitive SP call

at a particular levels, no crystal ball.