Member Info for fatprofits

Will they stay down?, unlikely imv.

But like everyone else, I can't see the exact future.

And beware anyone who says they can,

as they are talking out of their behind.

This is about probabilities at best, never certainties.

Vaccine revenue fell just over 29% on the Q2 update.

Hopefully a smaller fall over Q3, find out next week.

Sentiment towards GSK is on the floor right now and while it

could head for the basement, expectations are already very low.

Further pipeline progress would be supportive.

In a nutshell, the market does not appear to ascribe a great value to the GSK

pipeline currently, this could change. We saw this very clearly play out with AZN.

A drop in vaccination rates because of the coronavirus, as GSK reported

On their Q2 update, accounts for a significant chunk of recent share price weakness imv.

Read the legislation- it cannot be bid for by an overseas company during the pandemic

Net debt has about doubled over the laxt decade, it cannot keep increasing
without serious consequences, including potential credit downgrades
which then may impacting borrowing rates.

UK takeover rules were tightened under 2018 new legislation.

The 2020 emergency legislation stays in place until the end of the COVID-19
Pandemic. Strategic assets include any companies that play a significant role
in management or treatment of COVID-19.

Appreciate the view.

GSK net debt has increased rapidly over the last few years - FACT - look at their 2010 net debt,
or 2015, 2016 etc.

At the start of the week I mentioned the downtrend was unlikely to be over - FACT - it's continued to fall.

GSK is a strategic asset and will not be bid for by a non UK company- FACT, GSK is covered under the new legislation now enacted.

Up your arsenal, perhaps do a little reseach first before commenting:
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-clamps-down-on-takeover-rules-for-firms-fighting-covid-nr6xdz7vn

Yes it is a stategic asset.

And you've been a member of this site for a few days, your inexperience shows.

GSK is a strategic asset, a bid would not be allowed, unless
another UK company, that only leaves AZN. And AZN don't need GSK.

Q3 update next week.

And the market is well aware of this.

It's One of the reasons behind the current share price imv.

There's a gaping hole in that rational imv.

Firstly, the spin off. The GSK dividend is highly likely to be rebased lower.

Secondly, and this is part of the first reason, net debt is now £25 Billion plus.

Put more simply, GSK have been paying out too high a dividend and they

have done this while net debt has rapidly increased.

I remember not too long ago when GSK was around £10 billion,

that's more than doubled over the last few years.

We appear to have cut through the levels you mentioned?.

Around 13.50 appears not to have provided support.

We are less than 3% from this level.

Gary, that's good news.

Sooner we have a viable vaccine candidate the better.

if reports are accurate, a volunteer in Brazil has unfortunately died.

Given the current share price that's like looking up at Everest from ground level!.

Much appreciated, thanks.

And if I can return a favour of sorts, there are only 2 names I would touch
in the construction sector fwiw - BBY and MGNS.

And even those 2 companies have had some previous issues.

the listed construction sector has been a minefield for many private investors,
unless very agile, lucky, or both. Good fortune.

OK get that now, but then you explain why following the Brexit referendum

GSK and multiple other overseas earners went on an absolute tear upwards?

Thanks for the clarification, I was not aware they hedged.