Member Info for fatprofits

AZN trades on approx 15/16 X
FY 2023 estimates.

A lot can between now and then so there may be subject
to significant change.

As mentioned over the weekend I expected this week to
offer an opportunity to add lower down, I'm watching atm.

"What does $29B buy you in Big Pharma? In GlaxoSmithKline’s case, a whole lot of uncomfortable questions about the pipeline..."

Are coming under scrutiny in the Pharma press.

Interesting to see the reaction to the FY.

As expectations are already so low it will take a lot to disappoint,
May be some SP upside?.

Is that what passes the benchmark for publication in the IC, oh my days.

Unadulterated cr.p imv.

Within 12 months normality has resumed, or something very
close to it, or we face a more serious outlook with virus mutations
leading to restrictions and/or lower demand for air travel.

The current RYA SP indicates consensus strongly favours the former.

Given the difference in profitability between those two outlooks
I would not waste too much time pouring over current results.
The market is not focused on current trading as today's SP reaction
shows.

Consensus may be incorrect, that remains to be seen.

From a risk/reward perspective the current SP does not
provide much leeway against any disappointment.

Attempting to rationalise short term price movements is not
something worth engaging in.

AZN started 2021 trading at approx £74.20, around the current level in other words.

The wider UKX has fallen -1.7% approx since the start of the year, nothing unusual.

Take the point re building good will, I've made the same point previously.

Particularly re AZN, when the Shares traded briefly over £100,
that was borderline parabolic for a vaccine that by itself was not
going to impact the P&L.

5 - Horizon Therapeutics have bid for Viela.

That was in the link I posted earlier.

As I have mentioned for a number of months there

are likely to be so many options available later this year

that governments will be spoiled for choice.

Availability should also keep pricing low.

There is no pot of gold at the end of the COVID rainbow for

AZN or GSK.

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/astrazeneca-AZN/share-news/AstraZeneca-PLC-AstraZeneca-agrees-to-divest-Viela/84213625

Covid-19 vaccines dominate discussions here currently

and it's understandable. And we should never forget

AZN Delivered on that front.

The big picture is about double digit multi year earnings growth

for AZN.

If the market sell off continues next week, AZN may present an

opportunity for those who didn't buy or add on the post acquisition

sell off.

That's a completely different point.

Now with all the posts on here, did not get a mention
until my post.

Fierce Pharma is a good resource of industry information.

Https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/s-p-cuts-gsk-rating-on-expected-decline-in-profitability-cash-flow-generation-57947125

Why?, because debt levels together with cash flow

are factors used by the rating agencies.

The rating agencies heavily determine rates that

a company can borrow money at.

Novices may not understand this, but the fats does.

Https://pharmaphorum.com/news/gsk-suffers-another-rd-setback-axing-ulcerative-colitis-drug-trial/

The reason for the speculation on the dividend is the
consumer healthcare split to take place in 2022,
or somewhere around that date.

There is another reason, net debt.
Go back around a decade and GSK debt was circa £8 Billion.

The market is imv not that concerned about the level of
dividend (some PI's may view that differently).

Any comparison to RDSB or BP is erroneous.
O&G is facing an existential longer term threat,
pharma is not.

* focused

I see so many investors laser like focuseed on yield
and overlooking growth.

Who is in a better position over the last 10 years,
the GSK or the AZN holder?.

The Pru or the Aviva holder ...etc.

If you require a certain level of income is it
not possible to sell say 2% of a holding each year
to bump up the yield?.

That strategy relies on some equity growth to compensate
for those shares sold.

The obsession with yield, often to the
detriment of growth, can be very costly indeed IMV.
As always please DYOR.

Some weekend press comment.