Member Info for fatprofits

Net of stamp duty if you sold at £40.20,

hanging off on my next Stong Buy at this point, but it

may be within the next 2 weeks.

Just in case the meaning of the post may be misconstrued-

I view that as bullish, a contra sentiment signal.

I've followed GSK, Glaxo as was, Glaxo Welcome ...etc, since the days when Zantac powered earnings - the halcyon days.,

And looking at some different investors sites today and the posts therin

( LSE is far superior to any other site I hasten to add! - mods I said far superior)

this may be the lowest I can ever remember PI sentiment towards the Company.

Now tbf 'lowest' in this context could become even worse,

but fwiw may be worth noting - anecdotal Only! - underlined in red ink.

I've had two lots today fwiw.

Consumer spin off should create value.

The outlook (post pandemic) for the vaccine division looks strong.

In pharma the ViiV jv is a rip roaring success.

That really only leaves core pharma to rejuvenate

and there are some early signs of success on that front.

So GSK is nearly there - the core pharma pipeline (ex ViiV) is

key to unlocking a significantly higher valuation imv.

(just for balance, there have been some recent oncology pipeline disappointments
which look to have dented sentiment- rarely mentioned on here).

Well I try to be as transparent as possible with my postings and

have to say when Toff first mentioned £12 on the XD...I thought

yeah right! (meaning wrong).

My considered opinion though, was different (as is often the case!)

and I started thinking ...well why not £12 ?, or somewhere near.

And that's what a quality post on a bb can do, it makes you

question a rational, look at something from a different angle.

It does not have to be "right" ' - but to make you consider something

again may be helpful.

contrarian, not pre split.

One of the challenges Emma has when presenting is knowing that

she will often then face questions from pharma analysts, many of whom

have a science background. That must be daunting.

Then again, EW is paid well for the privilege.

Toff, exactly.

A bad business decision is a bad business decision and the reverse applies.

Thailand and Malaysia proved to be a great business move for Tesco.

The US, a disaster.

The divi rebase may take place pre split, depending on the

exact 2022 timing.

GSK have provided dividend guidance for FY 2021 only.

Poker, you are confusing two elements.

Perhaps you know what you intend to say,

but with respect your point is confused.

I warned on Tesco over on the 'other place' before the .... hit the fan.

As I posted on the day Terry unexpectedly resigned, I called my Dad and

had him sell out immediately, I had already sold

as saw the longer threat from Aldi/Lidli

and never rated Tim Mason who headed up their US operation.

Firstly you need to take account of the upcoming split.

What GSK will do with the spin off is transfer around £8/£9 bn of

debt to the new consumer products company imv

Following that, they have stated the dividend on the pharma side

Has To be well covered by cash flow from the split onwards.

So debt metrics will imv look very different in about 18 months.

PRU did the same on a smaller scale,

transferring around £3 bn of net debt to M&G.

You are confusing two different elements.

I am referencing long term earnings growth, Halma, Next plc etc (UK examples).

Tesco was a fantastic investment over a number of decades.

Their US move was a diaster, however what hit them hardest was margin compression

on the UK retail side.

Tesco UK margins hit a peak of around 6.2% circa 2012, their UK marg

is now about 50% lower.

Has that been the case with Novo Nordisk...

I don't get the rational, unless you are referring to low quality

debt leveraged acquisitive growth.

Long term earnings growth drives share prices.

Yes during bear markets there is usually multiple contraction etc,

but it still holds true.

A quick look at Halma Plc, which is one of the best UK examples over 30

years plus.

From a contra sentiment point of view,

some of today's very bearish posts are counterintuitivly bullish.

bankruptcy within a year, eh.

I can recommend GSK's lamotrigine).

Slightly facetious remark by me, I have no idea of the system's track record

and GSK have arguably paid too high a dividend over multiple years.

If they needed short term cash and did not want to tap bond markets or issue equity,

scrapping the payout would do wonders for cash flow!.

With respect you may be unaware of the annual cost of the dividend,

it's in to £billions.

Think in the region of £3.5 bn plus, but would need to double check the precise amount.

Poker, more to it than that, although I kind of get what you are saying.

The reason some large LSE listed stocks have performed so poorly

is arguably Because of the level of dividends.

Dividends have been prioritised over growth investment in some cases.

And it's growth that ultimately drives the SP - short term voting machine, long

term weighing machine ...etc, to paraphrase Mr Graham.

Hat tip from me on that one, very astute Mr.

* if long a stock...

Gary, none of us have the slightest influence on the GSK SP,
so yes agree there may be agendas, but it makes no difference whatever.

If long a long much prefer to read a constructive bearish view,
may be that's just me.

...guard the yield here.

With respect, read the FY statement.

Not having a pop at anyone here but sometimes wonder if some
bother to even read the Q update statements.

Appreciate not everyone is stuck in like me with time on their hands.