Member Info for fatprofits

And as mentioned Merck trades on 15 x FY22 estimates,
with significantly lower net debt than GSK.

Merck trades on approx 15 x FY 2022,

however Merck have about 6bn less on net debt than GSK

and is significantly more profitable.

The current GSK share price is interesting IF the CH listing

creates value (which I expect) and GSK can ignite longer term growth in

core pharma(which includes the vaccine division).

When referring to igniting growth, that means FY23 onwards,

as FY22 may have a large vaccine tailwind - provided healthcare

systems return to near normality.

Toff, have to disagree on the £20 plus if the main listing
was on the NYSE.

Take a look at Pfizer on FY 22, 13 X earnings and they are growing

again from next year according to current consensus.

GSK trades on approx 13.7 X at current FY 22 consensus.

Pfizer also has lower net debt metrics.

One of the advantages of the CH listing is a significant chunk

of net debt will be hived off from core GSK, all be it they lose the

profitability and cashflow contribution.

Nope Toff, not at all.

I just notice it is rarely mentioned.

When perception begins to change on that,

the SP should respond nicely.

Providing healthcare systems in developed markets are
back to something resembling normality in 2022,
that should be a strong year for core pharma, particularly the
vaccine side - on catch up vaccine momentum, if nothing else.

Ben, safe as house, eh.

I need some of what you are on!, however hopefully you are
along the right lines.

* excuse the double negative. Aware some may be grammatically fastidious!.

There needs to be some realism here.

Earnings fell in 2020 and GSK have guided lower Again for FY 2021.

and not only have they guided lower, that lowered guidance is

predicated on....healthcare systems returning to normality in H2.

In other words there is potential for a

further guidance cut for FY 2021.

I'm not saying algos are not trading between certain levels etc,

attempting to flush some weaker holders and yes sentiment on

an individual stock can move from exuberance to pessimism,

which also has a bearing - however, currently earnings are falling,

Not increasing. Hopefully that changes at a future date

and the CH spin off creates some value.

AZN holders, which includes me, complaining about manipulation.

Key to GSK valuation is to to grow earnings per share on core pharma.

Thanks, appreciate the reply.

I'm aware some stick to a 70% core holding approx rule, giving leeway to trade
the remainder, or a % of that remainder intermittently.

May I ask If you were so convinced of lower levels
(which was a great call as mentioned)

were you not tempted to sell a greater % before the XD,
or you are sticking to a trade up to a third of a holding ?
I'm guessing.

Indeed, just made the same point on GSK.

FX is arguably an increasingly significant factor atm,

cable now approaching 1.41.

What is the BOD doing ...?

Enfin, I believe TR64 is the person to ask on that one.

Personally, I pay no attention to broker price targets
as they can be dramatically lowered or raised in
the blink on an eye.

Their rational is more interesting, sometimes.

However, even pharma analysts can get it wrong.

Their price targets are something I would neverr get emotionally
invested in - pun intended.

Well it's my average that is the salent price and that is just under £12.30.

That's the book cost, so stamp duty and other trade costs inclusive.

And added lower, that may come back to haunt me!.

Hopefully not.

The delay in the tea divestment has not helped sentiment.

This has been discussed for over 12 months now.

Yes we have covid, however business continues
and private equity are awash with cash, if
they are unable to find a trade buyer.

I think the...we may list this as a separate company...
Is Unilever saying...someone please make us an attractive offer!.

* apologies - my posts don't format as intended sometimes.

It's probably me, rather than an LSE issue!.

Is primarily increased inflation expectations re margin headwinds,

but also FX.

I keep a watch on Unilever consensus estimates and they appear to have steadily

reduced over the last few months as the GBP and Euro have strengthened against a
range of currencies.

If anyone considers the above is incorrect, or someone has a different view, then please post.

And this proves the point that fortunes have been made.

Buying Next during the financial crisis low and reinvesting
dividends since has given an approx 1,000% gain.

You did not need to be fortunate enough to buy at that precise point
to still make huge % gains.

Stock selection is key, timing also plays a part.